Austin Peay vs. Stetson odds, pick: ASUN Championship betting preview for Sunday, March 10

Austin Peay vs. Stetson Odds

Sunday, March 10, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN2

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Austin Peay also had a miraculous comeback against North Florida in the first round. The Govs trailed most of the game and were down eight with four minutes to play before sparks ignited. Eventually, APSU took the win in overtime.

In the semis, Peay held off North Alabama after a fierce effort from the Lions nearly resulted in an upset.

And now we’re left with two programs looking to end significant NCAA tournament droughts.

A win for Peay would mean its first bid since 2016.

A win for Stetson would mean its first bid since … well … ever. In their 53-year Division I history, the Hatters have never tasted true March. They’ll get a good chance on Sunday with home-court advantage.

Austin Peay Governors

Austin Peay nearly beat Stetson on this floor in its lone matchup back in January. The Govs fell by one, despite shooting 11-of-24 from 3 and grabbing 44% of their misses.

The Govs are one of the few isolation-heavy offenses in the country – in fact they lead the nation in possessions finished in isolation. Head coach Corey Gipson starts four guards, and each of them can handle and create offense.

DeMarcus Sharp is one of the best one-on-one players in all of college basketball, and his teammate Dezi Jones has been nearly as potent.

But is this type of offense sustainable? Ranking just 356th in the country in assist rate, the Govs can be “easier” to scout than most teams.

That doesn’t mean Stetson can stop them. The Hatters have struggled defending one-on-one on the perimeter this season, and the Govs won’t be bothered by Stetson’s pressure or zone looks.

When not in isolation situations, Peay plays inside-out through the post. Big man Sai Witt has been excellent this year, and despite the size of Stetson centers Aubin Gateretse and Treyton Thompson, the Hatters have really struggled to guard on the block.

It’s a positive that Stetson at least has the bodies to throw at Witt, but it’s still a concern as to if those bodies can get stops.

Stetson Hatters

Stetson’s home floor has been its sanctuary this season. The Hatters are 13-2 on the year at the Edmunds Center, and the championship crowd promises to be a raucous one.

As he was in the semifinals, Stetson point guard Stephan Swenson was the star in the first meeting versus Austin Peay this season, scoring 19 points and dishing out 10 assists.

He and Jalen Blackmon are as good of a one-two guard combo as you’ll find in the ASUN.

Peay couldn't stop Swenson off the bounce in the first game, nor could it stop Stetson on the glass, nor off post-ups. The Hatters shot nearly 70% from 2 in the first meeting.

The Hatters deploy a balanced offensive attack led by Swenson and Blackmon, and they thrive off ball screens. Peay has been extremely poor defending ball screens this season, ranking 343rd in points per possession allowed, per Synergy.

While the Hatters don’t look to run a ton, they're opportunistic in transition and take advantage when they do run, ranking in the 98th percentile nationally in points per possession, per Synergy.

Stetson is an excellent shooting team, with multiple weapons dotting the perimeter.

Like Peay on the other end, Stetson won't be fazed by the Govs’ pressure or zone looks. And, like Peay, Stetson has a beast inside in Gateretse. He leads the nation in effective field goal percentage, ranks 35th in offensive rebounding rate and is currently averaging 21.5 points per game in the ASUN tournament.

Austin Peay vs. Stetson

Betting Pick & Prediction

This game promises to be an efficiency bonanza.

Neither team can stop the other’s primary actions, and both teams can handle the ball and create second chances.

Expect a ton of points, as we saw in the first game between these two squads when they combined for 165 despite just 66 possessions.

Pick: Over 146