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Best Bets on ACC Tournament Futures: Lots of interesting values

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 3/6/23

This has been a very curious season for the ACC. Instead of North Carolina following up last year's run to the title game with a strong season, they have struggled mightily and might even need to win some games this week just to get another invite to the Big Dance.

That opened things up for Virginia and Miami to tie for the regular season title at 15-5. Both are experienced groups, but not exactly in the handful of teams that pundits see winning it all this season. I wouldn't discount them doing so, but their fates are not tied to success this week/weekend.

According to the metrics, this has been one of the worst seasons in a long time for the ACC. Partly a product of having such a large stable of programs, but mostly because many have been less than expected (we are looking at you, Louisville and Notre Dame). If today was Selection Sunday there might only be 4-5 teams worthy of an invite, and that means the majority of the league needs this event to qualify. With it being mediocre though, those wins are not what normally are in terms of profile building.

ACC Tournament Futures

You can go all the way down to Louisville if you want but here are the teams with a real shot to win the league this week.

Duke Blue Devils +260
Miami Hurricanes +360
Virginia Cavaliers +360
Clemson Tigers +650
North Carolina Tar Heels +750

Note: The top four teams get double byes (MIA, UVA, CLEM, DUKE) and the 5th (PITT) and 6th (NCST) and 7th (UNC) teams get a single bye.

Best Bet: Virginia +360

Duke has the best KenPom rating in the league but that is a team whose best players are still so young. Virginia gets the nod over Miami here because of their continuity. Four of the 5 starters have been with the program for more than a year so they are really familiar with what coach Tony Bennett wants. The fifth starter is a senior too. They did lose to Miami during the season, but that was on the road, and they have neutral site wins over teams including Baylor and Illinois. They can beat good teams anywhere they play them.

Sleeper: North Carolina Tar Heels +750

I know being in the top five in odds might not feel that sleeperish but at +750 the Tar Heels qualify. When it comes to talent, they have more than enough and if they figure out how they want to play they could start winning and not stop until the cut down the nets. It is probably not so bad that they do not have a double-bye, they need to get some momentum going. UNC led the ACC in free throw rate and now is the time of year when you want to put some easy ones on the board.

And maybe NC State Wolfpack +1400

NC State has the most productive backcourt in the league in Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner. Both average 17ppg and could carry the team far. They are a great option at this price. They finished 12-8 in the league and have a first-round bye too.

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