Gonzaga vs. Purdue Sweet 16 pick and prediction for 3/29: Zags due for regression?

Gonzaga vs. Purdue Odds

Friday, March 29, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Mark Few has done his best coaching job since he took over the Zags program, especially since they went from a bubble team to a five-seed in a few months.

Many are picking the Zags to move past the Boilers, but there are several reasons why that won't happen.

First, the Bulldogs can't play better offensively than they have in the first two rounds. In their latest beatdown of the Jayhawks, the Zags shot over 55% for the game, including 8-for-15 from 3.

Besides the looming offensive regression, the Bulldogs have a thin rotation. If the Zags get into foul trouble, especially Graham Ike, they are in a boatload of trouble.

Nobody can stop Zach Edey inside, so ticky-tack fouls are called. I assume that Purdue will force-feed Edey inside and attack the paint with their explosive guards early, allowing the Bulldogs to rack up early fouls.

These two teams met in Maui in November, and they both struggled from 3-point land. Purdue won by 10, but the game was closely contested until late in the second half.

Despite their elite interior defense, Edey is an outlier to the opponents the Bulldogs faced all season. They also don't force turnovers, so I have a hard time envisioning the Zags coming up with enough stops to contain the Boilers.

Purdue Boilermakers

Like the Bulldogs, the Boilers have been terrific thus far in the NCAA Tournament.

Their offense is scorching hot from deep, ranking second nationally in 3-point shooting over the past two months.

Friday is a great spot for Purdue, as Gonzaga's lack of depth should hurt them. Ike is a terrific defender inside, but I envision the matchup going similarly to the one back in November.

Ike had some early foul trouble in that matchup, and with him on the bench, Purdue dominated the interior.

Purdue's offense is excellent, entering the matchup third nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.

But the key to this game is defense.

The Boilers rank 15th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and have the chops to slow down the red-hot Zags. They are a terrific transition defense, which is where the Bulldogs live.

Purdue is also outstanding at preventing trips to the foul line, as they rank 10th nationally in free-throw attempts allowed per game. There isn't value backing the Boilers at the number, but the matchup tells me they are worthy of a wager.

Gonzaga vs. Purdue

Betting Pick & Prediction

Instead of targeting the current spread of Purdue -5.5, I'd rather take Gonzaga Team Total Under 74.5.

I don't trust the full-game under because Purdue could explode on offense if it forces Gonzaga into foul trouble.

Both teams are due for shooting regression, but the Zags are due for more.

Plus, the Boilermakers are the superior defensive unit.

It's always possible that the Zags remain red-hot from deep and stay out of foul trouble, but I have a hunch that the regression monster is looming over Few's team.

I trust Painter to create an excellent game plan and slow Gonzaga's offense for 40 minutes.

Pick: Gonzaga Team Total Under 74.5