Kentucky Basketball: Should They Stay Or Should They Go

Now that the dust has settled on Kentucky’s season I think its important we do a bit of a look back and decide the path forward.  I deliberately waited a week to write this because I didn’t want to be clouded by anger and publish something I would regret.  Hopefully we can have some level-headed conversations because I think we all want the same thing and that is Kentucky basketball to win in March.

Lets dive into each individual on what they should and what they ultimately will do.

John Calipari and the Staff

Lets start with the coach.  It sucks to see a guy who has brought BBN so much joy be beaten up like this but at this point it is deserved.  Cal has lost much of the goodwill that he accrued from 2009-2019 and is entering his most important offseason.  According to a lot of media voices there was serious discussion around ending the Calipari Era but he will be back for his 16^th season.

I badly want to believe that John Calipari and Mitch Barnhart are on the same page as the program needs a total overhaul in terms of how it operates in the new era of CBB.  Other serious programs are staffed by an army of off-court analysts who scour the country for potential portal options.  While another set of analysts breaks down opponents (including potential tournament opponents).  My understanding is that isn’t happening at Kentucky.  I don’t know who is to blame but at this point both men’s legacy are on the line and they need to invest in fixing it.

I’d expect some staff changes and Cal must be very judicious in who he brings in.  This staff doesn’t need more recruiting and vibes type coaches.  It also doesn’t need Cal’s personal friends who have failed at previous jobs, it needs real qualified basketball coaches who are ambitious and hungry.  Bonus points if Cal can find a full-time position for Tyler Ulis.

Reed Sheppard/Rob Dillingham

I expect both to declare for the Draft and not leave much optimism for a return to Kentucky.  Both have been projected to be top 10 picks the last 2-3 months and it would be financially irresponsible for either to return to Kentucky.  I’d obviously take either or both of those guys back and so should Cal, but that decision should come from them and their families. Convincing them to return (unlike others on this list) would be immoral in my opinion.

DJ/Adou/Z/Bradshaw/Edwards/Ugo

If Cal is going to get a core to return (which is much better than playing Portal Roulette in my opinion) it’s from this group.  It is imperative that Cal re-recruits the right combo of these guys back to Lexington.

For me DJ is a must.  His draft stock has dropped into the 2^nd round (in part due to injury) and he along with Z has the best chance to make a lot more money next summer.  Kentucky really needs a steady hand at PG to navigate the SEC and asking a Freshmen to do it by himself (or a portal guy) is unnecessary.  Especially when you have a guy like DJ already in the program.  For whatever reason DJ got a lot of grief but before the injury he was playing like one of the best PGs in the SEC.

I’d also want Z back just because I think he was robbed of something special thanks to the NCAA.  I also believe he’d be a star with a full off-season and non-conference slate.  Z is probably the most likely potential draft-pick to return in my opinion.  I’ll be optimistic and say we get a Year 2 of Big Z.

Edwards probably has the toughest decision because his late season surge recovered some of his stock.  He almost certainly declares for the Draft while leaving the option open to returning (just like Livingston) before deciding to stay in.

Bradshaw and Ugo are also in an interesting situation.  I think both will do what Adou Thiero has already done and declare for the Draft while also entering the portal.  I would take either of them back at Kentucky (we probably don’t need both).  Both guys are probably playing basketball in college next season but not at Kentucky.

Jordan Burks/Joey Hart

I hesitate to pair these guys together but here we are.  Burks showed some real flashes in his limited minutes. Especially when he wasn’t asked to play as a 4/5 man like he was early in the year.  Burks has good size and I’d be really intrigued to see him return.  It will likely depend on how he is prioritized.  If Adou returns (and I think it’s a real possibility he returns) with the incoming Freshmen in Knox/Richmond kind of playing the same spot I think Burks transfers out.  If Adou stays in the portal (or goes pro) I think Burks could be talked into sticking around.

Personally, I’d prefer Cal prioritizes both Adou and Burks and tells one of Knox/Richmond “thanks but no thanks”.  Taking both commitments from those guys was a mistake.  I’d be stunned if either guy is ready to contribute at a meaningful level as Freshmen.

I do expect Joey Hart to transfer out so he can play.  Love the kid for betting on himself at Kentucky, but he was the one guy on this roster that Cal never bothered to try and include in the rotation.  I don’t see that changing going into next season.

Outlook

With all that I expect us to have Adou and Z return.  With 6 Freshmen incoming that means Kentucky is not only going to have hit the portal, they’re also going to have to nail it.

Cal can not stake his legacy on 6 Freshmen (who also happen to be in one of the worst recruiting classes in two decades).  He will have to be incredibly intelligent in how he constructs this roster.  Taking fliers on guys like Meechie Johnson and hoping they suddenly become efficient basketball players already has me nervous but it’s early days.  I would imagine this offseason is going to be a roller-coaster until early June.  I wouldn’t overreact to every rumor.

Go Cats.