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March Madness Best Bets: Who's on Sweet 16 upset alert? 
Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

March Madness Best Bets: Who's on Sweet 16 upset alert? 

The NCAA tournament started this week and it lived up to the hype, and then some. We had a little bit of everything — upsets, buzzer beaters, individual star performances, and more — and we expect the same come Thursday and Friday in the Sweet 16. 

Talk about Madness: No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson, which got into the tournament only because Northeast Conference tournament champion Merrimack was ineligible after transitioning from Division II to Division I, upset No. 1 seed Purdue in the first round. No. 15 Princeton is in the Sweet 16 after upsetting No. 2 Arizona in the first round, followed by a win over No. 7 Missouri in the second round. And maybe craziest of all, only two No. 1 seeds (Alabama and Houston) and two No. 2 seeds (UCLA and Texas) remain. 

Let's get down to business and help you make some money this week in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.

South Region

Top seed remaining: Alabama is the top overall seed and they showed us why after trouncing Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Maryland in the first two rounds. Crimson Tide superstar Brandon Miller still doesn't look 100% as the projected lottery pick in this year's NBA draft and has been bothered by a groin injury the last couple of weeks, but Bama hasn't needed him, yet. However, that might change on Friday against No. 5 San Diego State. Whether or not Miller plays his best basketball, Alabama has still found a way to win, and that shouldn't change.

Potential Sweet 16 upset:  No. 6 Creighton is the obvious choice, and they're our pick after watching Princeton upset Arizona and Missouri in the first two rounds. Greg McDermott's Bluejays looked good, make that real good against NC State and Baylor, but the Princeton Tigers are on a magical run, and we refuse to bet against them. Creighton will be and should be the favorite in this game, but Princeton's unselfishness on offense and gritty defense has been a problem for opposing teams, and we expect that to continue on Thursday.
 
Dark horse: It's got to be Princeton, right? The Tigers already have a pair of upsets, and we like them as moneyline underdogs against Creighton. Assuming Alabama beats SDSU, the Tigers just might have enough going right for them to beat the top team in the county in Alabama. We've still got a long way to go before that potentially happens, but if it does, Princeton would need to play the game of its life to take down the Crimson Tide.
 
Our South Region winner: We took Alabama to get to the Final Four before the NCAA tournament and we still like the Crimson Tide (-125) to get there. The line isn't nearly as good as it was on Thursday but considering how good Alabama looked in the first two rounds, -125 isn't terrible. The Tide won the SEC Tournament, finished with the best conference record during SEC play and have won five straight and nine of 10. This team has very few weaknesses and unless Miller is unable to play, Bama should have no problem winning the South.

East Region

Top seed remaining: No. 3 Kansas State. Shocking we know, but top- seeded Purdue lost to FDU in the first round and Michigan State upset No. 2 Marquette in the second round on Sunday. However, just because the Wildcats are the top seed remaining in the East, doesn't mean you should sleep on No. 4 Tennessee, No. 9 Florida Atlantic or No. 7 Michigan State. You could make an argument for each team, and that is why picking the winner of this region is probably the hardest of them all.

Potential Sweet 16 upset: Without a doubt, No. 3 Kansas State. Tom Izzo's Spartans struggled from deep on Sunday against Marquette and still won by nine. MSU controls the glass, shoots a high percentage from the foul line and are always prepared to play. Izzo's experience alone makes MSU that much more dangerous, and you should strongly consider taking MSU on the moneyline (-125) and the spread (-1.5, -110).

Dark horse: No surprise here: Michigan State. Not to sound too redundant but MSU does the little things right, and that matters down the stretch, especially in the tournament. We took MSU to lose to USC in the first round, and were we wrong about that. How does the saying go? "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me?" We're not going to get fooled again. It's been a disappointing tournament so far for the Big Ten, but Michigan State can make it a whole lot better with a pair of wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.

Our East Region winner: We're going to live on the edge and take Michigan State (+320). And if you're with us, you'll place this bet sooner rather than later because we don't see the line getting better leading up to Thursday. The Spartans don't beat themselves, have size and have the ability to get hot from the outside. That's a combination for success, and that's good enough for us.

Midwest Region

Top seed remaining: No. 1 Houston wasn't the top overall seed entering the tourney. However, they were the favorite to win the Big Dance. The Cougars (+380) might not be the favorite to win it all anymore but that's OK. It's clear Houston can handle adversity as Kelvin Sampson's Cougars overcame a double-digit halftime deficit in the second round against Auburn, and that should only benefit them moving forward. And to top it off, Houston has the fewest losses of any team remaining and have won 15 of 16. This team is hot, and we advise you to not bet against them.

Potential Sweet 16 upset: We don't have one. No offense to Miami or Xavier, but we just don't see Houston or Texas losing. Texas might be the best defensive team on this side of the bracket and Houston might be the best overall team on this side of the bracket. These two teams should meet in the Elite Eight.

Dark horse: Didn't we just talk up Houston and how good a season they've had? Yes, yes, we did. However, the Cougars didn't exactly play the toughest schedule during the regular season, and that's concerning. Meanwhile, No. 2 Texas has been stout on defense, beat Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament championship game and has won six in a row. The Longhorns are a team no one wants to face, including Houston.

Our Midwest Region winner: Houston (-115), but we're not as confident in the Cougars as we were before the tournament started. Texas is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and that could be a problem for the Cougars, especially if they get off to another slow start like they did in the second round against Auburn. The Longhorns very well could have been a No. 1 seed instead of Purdue or Kansas, and make no mistake about it, they're more than capable of beating Houston.

West Region

Top seed remaining: No. 2 UCLA did just enough to hold off Northwestern in the second round, and they're now the top seed in the West. Just like Texas, UCLA was a fringe No. 1 seed, but don't automatically think the Bruins are a lock to get to the Elite Eight, let alone the Final Four.

Potential Sweet 16 upset: We have two for you: No. 3 Gonzaga over No. 2 UCLA and No. 9 Arkansas over No. 4 UConn. Gonzaga beat UCLA, 93-30, in the Final Four two years ago, and don't be surprised if Thursday's Sweet 16 contest is just as close and just as high scoring. Gonzaga (+106) is currently the 'dog, but expect this to be a pick 'em game come Thursday. Meanwhile, Arkansas destroyed Illinois in the first round and did just enough to be beat No. 1 Kansas. Arkansas is great on the glass, solid defensively and executes offensively down the stretch when it matters most. The uglier the game, the more likely the Razorbacks win, and we expect a super ugly game on Thursday against the Huskies.

Dark horse: Gonzaga. The Zags have the most experienced player in the country in Drew Timme and have won 11 in a row. It's safe to say the Bulldogs are not the team that dropped three of its first nine games and shared the regular-season conference title with St. Mary's.

Our West Region winner: We took Gonzaga (+240) before the tourney started and we're even more confident now after watching them beat TCU on Sunday that they're the best team in this region. Mark Few has this group locked in, and that's scary. But do us a favor, put your money on Gonzaga to get to the Final Four right now. The line won't get any better than it is now. If the Zags beat UCLA in the Sweet 16, they're highly likely to be favored in the Elite Eight against the winner of Arkansas and Kansas.

Odds via DraftKings

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