March Madness: Creighton vs. Tennessee Sweet 16 odds, pick and prediction 3/29: A must-see matchup

Creighton vs. Tennessee Odds

Friday, March 29, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Creighton Bluejays

Creighton has become known for its rigid game plans on both ends of the floor. Offensively, the Jays want to seek out 3-point looks, foregoing trips to the free-throw line and mid-range looks for one of the highest rates of shots from deep in the country.

The Jays invert that plan defensively, preventing shots from the outside and forcing drivers into three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner. His rim protection forces penetrators to loft a floater above him or settle for a mid-range jumper.

In the First Round, Creighton shot the lights out and faced an Akron team lacking the on-ball playmakers to take advantage in the mid-range, leading to an easy Bluejays win.

In the Second Round, Creighton got everything it could handle from Oregon. Jermaine Couisnard, currently the tournament's highest scorer, made plays in the middle of the floor and set up big man N'Faly Dante, who had a monster day.

That twosome was effective enough to drag Creighton to two overtime periods, before the Bluejays' balance prove the difference in a runaway 13-point win.

The top of Greg McDermott's rotation features four double-figure scorers, surrounded by two 40+ percent 3-point shooters. It feels inevitable that one of those options will win out over the course of 40 minutes, though that hasn't been the case all year.

The Bluejays, like anyone else, are susceptible to going collectively cold. With such a high volume of attempts from long range, the Jays always feel like they're a shot or two away from snapping back into a hot streak, yet they've shown in some of their ugliest losses this year that living and dying by the 3 is still very much on the table.

Tennessee Volunteers

If you were building a box score for a Tennessee upset loss, the Vols pretty much replicated it in their last outing versus Texas. Tennessee shot 3-of-25 from outside the arc, including a combined 2-of-16 from Dalton Knecht and Zakai Zeigler, who combined to hit over 150 3s this season.

Inside the arc, big man Jonas Aidoo was just 4-of-12 shooting, while the Vols as a team finished with more turnovers than assists.

Without any further context, that feels like a game that would lead to a Tennessee exit.

Instead, the Vols' defense kept them afloat, in addition to some equally shoddy shooting from the Longhorns. Texas went more than 24 minutes of game time without making a shot from outside the arc and totaled just 19 points before halftime.

The Horns' shots began to fall, but the Vols stayed cold, and what was a 12-point lead dwindled to a single-point advantage in the game's final minute. Tennessee survived the last gasps of a comeback and lives to fight another day.

It was an uncharacteristic showing for an offense that ranks in the top-30 nationally, with a top-15 assist rate. Even when all else has failed for the Volunteers' attack, they had been able to lean on Knecht to find ways to put points on the board.

Instead, Tennessee had to put its tournament life in the hands of its defense — a safe bet given the strength of the Vols on that end.

With Aidoo as a rim protector and Ziegler working in tandem with Santiago Vescovi to pester perimeter players, the Volunteers have shown themselves able to win ugly when needed.

Creighton vs. Tennessee

Betting Pick & Prediction

This game epitomizes what makes college basketball and the NCAA Tournament such a fascinating exercise. From a crop of 360+ teams, this game matches up two with distinct styles, with strengths and weaknesses that cancel each other out at every turn.

Tennessee's miserable shooting performance in the Round of 32 can't be ignored. The Vols made their fewest 3-pointers in a game this season and shot their worst percentage from outside the arc. That shooting should regress towards the mean with a much better night against Creighton.

The trouble is that the Bluejays sell out to stop 3-point shooting; no team in the country gave up a higher percentage of its points to 2-point buckets. Creighton sells out on close outs, relying on Kalkbrenner to protect the rim and force mid-range jump shots.

In theory, the answer to that riddle is simple: Put the ball in Knecht's hands and let him score in the mid-range time after time. Giving one of the most talented scorers in the country free reins to operate in space should produce points.

In practice, that's less likely to happen here. Knecht shot just 39% on mid-range jump shots, per Hoop-Explorer. Even if that number undersells Knecht's ability as a mid-range scorer, his volume for scoring opportunities will be decided by head coach Rick Barnes.

This game feels like someone has set up a chess board in front of Barnes, with checkmate just a few moves away. Unfortunately, Barnes in March is no chess master. He's 4-16 ATS in the Big Dance since 2010.

Remove games in which his team was a double-digit favorite and Rick Barnes is 1-14 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2010.

Only two of those 15 games happened in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, both were Sweet 16 games. In both cases — 2023 vs. FAU and 2019 vs. Purdue — Barnes' Vols were favored and lost the game outright.

Maybe you can convince yourself something is different this time, but we've seen this movie before. Barnes has had six other top-20 KenPom teams since 2010, many of which featured top five defenses and All-Americans on the roster, and he's never made it back to the Elite Eight.

I'll sleep comfortably trusting that trend and my gut here.

Pick: Creighton +3