March Madness: NC State vs. Marquette Sweet 16 pick, prediction 3/29: Kam Jones is the X factor

NC State vs. Marquette Odds

Friday, March 29, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

NC State Wolfpack

I think NC State playing "elimination" games from the first day of the ACC Tournament benefitted it in the NCAA Tournament.

Most high-majors don't stress about winning their conference tourneys, as Duke and North Carolina, for instance, were locked into top-four NCAA Tournament seeds.

NC State's offense turned a corner in the past seven games, tallying 1.07 PPP or more each time. The offense struggled to replace Jarkel Joiner and Terquavion Smith early on, but now the talented Wolfpack offense is flowing.

Shockingly, All-ACC guard DJ Horne scored only 27 points on 8-for-24 shooting and 4-for-14 from 3 in the first two tournament games. Before the tourney, I thought NC State couldn't make a run without Horne scoring to his season average of 16.3 PPG.

So far, it hasn't mattered, which is an encouraging sign for NC State fans, as Horne's long track record indicates he should get rolling soon.

The interior duo of Mohamed Diarra and DJ Burns Jr. has completely changed the team.

Diarra serves as the glue guy. The Missouri transfer is a stout defender and rebounder who makes the occasional shot if the opportunity is there. He's grabbed 12-plus rebounds in six straight games and tallied double-doubles in four of the past six.

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Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquette was the most unknown of the two seeds in the field, as star guard Tyler Kolek missed the final five games due to an injury.

But since returning for the NCAA Tournament, Kolek has scored 38 points and dished 22 assists in wins over Western Kentucky and Colorado. The Golden Eagles shot 65% from 2-point range in the win over WKU and over 75% from 2 in the win over Colorado, primarily thanks to Kolek setting up the offense for success.

The X-factor is Kam Jones, who scored 18 and 28 points in Marquette's first week of tourney games.

When Jones is rolling, Marquette's offense is nearly unstoppable. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better guard duo in the sport than Kolek and Jones.

NC State will need a solid defensive effort for 40 minutes.

The 2-point scoring should shine against NC State's mediocre 2-point field goal defense, which ranks 135th nationally in defending shots inside the arc.

In this matchup, expect the highly skilled Oso Ighodaro to operate the offense on the perimeter, which puts Burns into a tough defensive position — Burns can't protect the rim or rebound if Ighodaro is spacing the floor.

Marquette is equally terrific on defense, ranking 18th nationally in defensive efficiency. The Eagles ramp up the pressure like most Shaka Smart teams do, leading to turnovers on 20% of defensive possessions.

The issue is that NC State is one of the best teams at controlling the ball, ranking in the top 10 nationally in offensive turnover rate.

The turnover battle could decide the game. Marquette wants to run from turnovers, while NC State prefers a more methodical, half-court game script.

NC State vs. Marquette

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both offenses are cooking in the tournament, which should remain the case.

We should see another high-scoring game, with two teams ranking in the top 175 nationally in Adjusted Tempo.

If Marquette controls the pace, the Golden Eagles should cover, but I expect a higher-scoring game regardless.

Pick: Over 151