National Championship best bets: Purdue vs. UConn odds, pick and prediction for Monday 4/8 

Of those, only 2021’s meeting of Gonzaga and Baylor pitted the two best teams, by KenPom and the eye-test.

This year, we’ll have that treat again. The Connecticut Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers are comfortably the two best teams in college basketball this season. They were the regular season champions of two of the best and most storied conferences in the sport.

UConn, however, has been a step above Purdue all season long. It enters this game as favorites, though at its lowest spread in nine games.

We should be in line for an all-time classic matchup.

Purdue Boilermakers

Matt Painter’s club didn't play great offensively on Saturday. The Boilers’ 16 turnovers was one off a season high. Zach Edey was sloppy with the ball against quick-swarming double teams.

Most concerning, sophomore point guard Braden Smith played, in his own words, “like crap.”

He finished the game 1-for-9 from the field with five turnovers, with an offensive rating of 54, his lowest since November.

Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round last year because its backcourt, then two freshmen, looked lost against pressure and afraid of the moment. This season, Smith and Fletcher Loyer appeared to have outgrown that, until Smith shriveled on Saturday.

The difference this year has been the addition of Lance Jones, a grad transfer from Southern Illinois who gives Purdue the extra shooter, ball handler and athlete that the Boilers lacked last season (fellow grad transfer David Jenkins Jr. failed to fill that role).

Jones’ brilliance against NC State — coupled with excellent team defense — was enough to propel Purdue into the title game.

Against a galactic jump up in competition, Purdue can't afford to have Smith or any other of its key figures crumble Monday night. That amounts to blood in the water, with UConn as scary as a great white shark on the prowl.

Connecticut Huskies

There’s no reason to dive too deep into the background of each of these teams. It’s early April. If you’re tuning into this one, and betting on it, surely you’re aware of the rosters at hand.

Saturday’s Final Four games did teach us a little something about each team, but it did more to reinforce what we already know about these two squads.

UConn faced some adversity, seeing an Alabama team with a distinct style, driven by its love of pace and space. That game plan showed in the first half, as the Tide got hot from deep and kept the Huskies within arm’s length.

As Alabama’s hot shooting dried up, however, UConn’s balance offensively proved too much.

There's no magic solution to beating these Huskies. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood tried one tactic, having his team attack star center Donovan Clingan in the paint, which worked out miserably. Alabama’s Nate Oats played a different card, which also backfired.

Alabama’s big gambit on the defensive end of the floor was playing freshman guard Stephon Castle softly with a big man, giving him tons of space to shoot or create.

It made sense in theory. Castle, a 26% 3-point shooter, hoisting from the outside is a good outcome for a defense. Yet Castle made his first two shots from deep and used that confidence to continue to make plays, finishing with a team-high 21 points.

Because UConn seems to have an answer for everything, the Huskies are liable to turn any score or stop into the first spark of a 10-0 run that changes the game.

In the blink of an eye, if you somehow built a lead against the Huskies, it can disappear. If you’ve played them even, they can shoot ahead and build a lead of their own.

If you’re already down and it hits that gear, UConn leaves you in the dust.

Purdue vs. UConn

Betting Pick & Prediction

There’s no question that this Purdue team is the best opponent that UConn has played all season. The Boilermakers have proven themselves to be the second-best team in college basketball.

But at the end of the day, they're exactly that — second-best.

UConn is on the most dominant NCAA Tournament run in decades. In order to confidently pick against them, there would need to be a pretty glaring matchup advantage going against the Huskies.

That’s just not the case here. If anything, UConn sets up very nicely to counter Purdue’s attack.

The Boilermakers run everything through Edey on the block, hoping he’s double-teamed to open up shooters on the perimeter or left alone to dominate in the paint. UConn has no reason to double Edey, with Clingan manning the middle.

Clingan might be the best defensive big in college basketball since Anthony Davis. He’s the rare opponent with the size, speed and smarts to really challenge Edey.

If you’re a Purdue fan or backer, there's hope. Edey led the nation in fouls drawn and Clingan — at times — has gotten into foul trouble, though he hasn’t had four fouls in a game since Valentine’s Day.

Dan Hurley plays his guys with two fouls at nearly half the national average (per KenPom), meaning he’d be cautious if Clingan gets whistled early. Keep that in mind if you’re live betting this one.

If there’s a bigger concern, it’s conditioning. Edey has played 38-plus minutes in three straight Purdue games. That is unfathomable for a 7-footer.

Clingan, meanwhile, has played 22 games since coming back from an injury in mid-January and topped 30 minutes just four times in that span. This game may well be decided by what happens in the 10-12 minutes that Edey plays and Clingan sits.

It’s no guarantee Purdue dominates those minutes, since Connecticut backup big Samson Johnson is no slouch defensively and will make Edey run in space on the other end of the floor.

Even if Edey wins the battle in the paint, UConn’s perimeter players are in a class beyond Purdue’s. The Boilermakers have shooters around Edey. The Huskies have stars on the outside around Clingan.

If those Purdue shooters start hot and stay hot, Purdue certainly has a chance. Yet over the course of 40 minutes, the talent gap on the perimeter will make itself apparent.

I’ll ride the UConn train one more time, expecting the Huskies to repeat at champs.

Pick: UConn -7.5 or Better