NCAA mid-major Cinderellas: Can App State and High Point scare power-conference teams?

App State Mountaineers

App State has already proven its ability to topple Goliath with its win against Auburn back in December. The Mountaineers took down the vaunted Tigers – currently a four-seed per Bracket Matrix – in Boone in front of a raucous crowd, using defense and 3-point marksmanship as catalysts.

Per KenPom, this is the best App State team since 2007, and it’s the best defensive team the program has seen in the 27-year history of the site.

The Mountaineers gum up the paint and make it impossible to score inside the arc. They rank eighth in the country in 2PFG% allowed and are ninth in block rate, thanks in large part to the shot-swatting ability of Justin Abson.

Going one step further, ASU’s interior defense is even stauncher at the rim, where opponents are shooting just 48.8%, the fifth-lowest mark in the country, per Hoop-Math.

Whereas 3-point percentage allowed can often have a lot of luck baked into it, 2-point percentage allowed is usually much more predictive and more indicative of a dominant defense.

Defense travels in March, and so does experience. The Mountaineers brought back all five starters from last year’s squad and added two key players in Myles Tate (Butler) and TreVon Spillers. Together, it’s a well-oiled machine featuring a veteran roster with savvy ball handlers, physical wings and an anchor in the paint.

Coaching is also key in March, and ASU has one of the very best in the mid-major ranks in Dustin Kerns. Kerns led Presbyterian to its best season ever in just his second year at the helm and reached the NCAA tournament with App State in Year 2 in Boone.

Since taking over, his teams have seen gradual improvement year over year, culminating in his best squad this season. Kerns’ intricate cutting motion offense combined with his nose for the defensive end can be a deadly combination in March.

Expect to see App State on the 12- or 13-seed line come March, the two spots where we see the majority of first-round upsets. This team will not be intimidated by a bigger name and will likely be within a double-digit point spread against any 4- or 5-seed it faces.

Experienced, defensively tough, and well-coached. What’s not to like?

High Point Panthers

High Point has been a massive surprise this year compared to preseason expectations. With a brand new head coach in Alan Huss and a roster that completely flipped over from the prior season, it was hard to know what we’d get from the purple Panthers.

KenPom started High Point as the 282nd-ranked team in the country, and though HPU started slow, it quickly sprinted up the national ranks after Thanksgiving. Now sitting at No. 113 in KenPom, Huss looks poised to notch the best season in the program’s Division I history.

Huss took over the head coaching spot after stints as an assistant coach at Creighton and New Mexico. Prior to that, he was the head coach of high school powerhouse La Lumiere, where he amassed a ridiculous 102-19 record.

Given his coaching history, it’s no surprise to see his team be an offensive juggernaut. The Panthers are currently the nation’s 30th-best offensive team, fueled by one of the best free-throw attempt rates and offensive rebounding rates in the country.

High Point’s roster is made up almost entirely of transfers. Kimani Hamilton (Mississippi State), Duke Miles (Troy), Kezza Giffa (JUCO / UTEP) and Trae Benham (Lipscomb) are all talented players who held key roles at previous stops.

They joined one of the lone returnees from last season — Abdoulaye Thiam — to form one of the most talented rosters in all of the mid-major realm.

7-foot freshman Juslin Bodo Bodo has also been a revelation inside. He ranks fifth nationally in offensive rebounding rate and is among the leaders in block rate and field goal percentage.

High Point’s athleticism and talent level that far exceeds the typical Big South team make it incredibly dangerous in a tourney setting. It's very difficult to win the rebounding battle against the Panthers, as they rank top-12 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.

If they draw an opponent in the NCAA tournament that struggles on the glass or with physicality, they could pull the upset.

Huss’ offense is ball-screen centric and focuses on attacking the basket. HPU has multiple creators on the floor at once, making it difficult to hone in on just one player.

Few teams in the country get to the foul line as much as High Point, and once there few teams in the country hit a higher percentage of free throws. The seventh-best free-throw attempt rate — plus the 15th-best free-throw percentage — makes HPU arguably the most prolific foul shooting team in the country.

Shooting can be inconsistent for any team, but getting to the line and controlling the glass is repeatable no matter the opponent.

That gives HPU an inherent advantage heading into any contest.

And while the Panthers haven’t played too many elite teams this season, they have the athleticism and talent to go toe-to-toe with power-conference squads.