Overseeded Teams

North Carolina Tar Heels

It’s difficult to call a one-seed overrated, but UNC certainly feels overvalued as the fourth team on the one-line.

The Heels rank ninth nationally on KenPom, making them the top-ranked three-seed if seeds held to the national rankings.

North Carolina trailed from start to finish in the ACC championship game against NC State (who was not even in the field until that win). The Heels are easily the most vulnerable team on the top line.

Kansas Jayhawks

By no fault of their own, the Jayhawks are a bit over-seeded, and that might be an understatement.

With Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson nursing serious injuries, it is hard to know what to make of Bill Self’s team.

The Jayhawks essentially mailed it in during the Big 12 Tournament. They lost by 20 to Cincinnati after losing four of their final five games.

KenPom has Kansas as the 22nd-best team in the country, implying a six-seed would be more accurate than a four-seed.

South Carolina Gamecocks

There are 17 at-large teams in this year's NCAA Tournament field, all ranked higher on KenPom than South Carolina but receiving a lower seed than the Gamecocks.

As a six-seed, Lamont Paris’ team is wildly over-seeded.

South Carolina is always vulnerable to getting blown out, as evidenced by losses by 31 points to Auburn in the SEC Tournament, 40 points at Auburn, and 27 points to Alabama.

Florida Atlantic Owls

Last year’s NCAA Tournament darling has not had the magic touch again this season.

Dusty May's Owls didn't win the regular season or conference tournament title, but their performances in the early non-conference season seem to have been rewarded.

Once a team with a Top 10 ranking in the polls, it would not be a surprise to see FAU lose their first game of the tournament this year.

They have five losses to teams ranked outside the top 100 this year, and even if they beat Northwestern, UConn looms in the second round.

Underseeded Teams

New Mexico Lobos

On the flip side, New Mexico is the most under-seeded team in the entire field.

The Mountain West got dinged hard, and the committee did not reward any of the six teams that qualified with seeds that reflected their quality.

New Mexico ranks 23rd nationally on KenPom, implying they should be a six-seed.

Still, instead, the Lobos drew an 11-seed, even after storming through the Mountain West Tournament and winning four games in four days to hoist the trophy.

Michigan State Spartans

It sounds a bit weird to say a team with 14 losses during the regular season is underrated, especially when many bracketologists thought Sparty would end up in the play-in, but they're better than the record shows.

They lost many close games, and entering the NCAA Tournament, they are one spot higher on KenPom than Kentucky, who earned a three-seed, while Michigan State ended up on the nine-line.

Michigan State opened as a betting favorite against Mississippi State despite being the higher seed.

Duke Blue Devils

Last, Duke landing as a four-seed is a bit surprising.

The Blue Devils have just eight losses this year, the same number as two teams on the two-line (Arizona and Tennessee).

According to Bart Torvik, Duke has been the best team in the ACC since February started, landing six spots higher than their rival North Carolina.

Duke's two losses to the Tar Heels may have earned them a four-seed. Still, make no mistake: Duke is as talented as the top teams in the country.

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