NCAAB odds, pick: Kansas State vs. Texas betting guide for Monday, Feb. 19

Kansas State vs. Texas Odds

Monday, Feb. 19, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Kansas State Wildcats

Saturday’s loss against TCU likely puts Kansas State in auto-bid or bust territory. The Wildcats battled back from a seven-point deficit to tie the score with 20 seconds left, but Jameer Nelson Jr. won the game at the buzzer. In the loss, Kansas State went 1-of-15 from 3, which is obviously not an ideal way to win.

Shooting inconsistency has been a season-long problem for the Wildcats, as they connect on just 30% of their 3s. Guards Tylor Perry and Cam Carter are two high-volume shooters who only hit around 30% from deep. Meanwhile, Arthur Kaluma leads the team at 36% from downtown.

K-State’s offense needs Perry hitting shots to win games. That’s what happened late against Kansas, and it’s been the constant in the team’s victories. Perry is hitting only 34% from the floor, but he's an exceptional foul shooter (91%).

Additionally, Kansas State has some real problems holding onto the ball. The Wildcats turn the ball over 20% of the time (353rd nationally in turnover percentage).

It's no surprise Kansas State's offense is so poor.

Texas Longhorns

Rodney Terry is answering some questions in his first full season as Longhorns head coach. He took over the job last season in an interim capacity following Chris Beard's arrest, and he brought the team to the Elite Eight. Put simply, Texas had no choice but to promote Terry following the success.

It looked shaky early, mainly when the Longhorns' rivals from Lubbock pulled out a curb-stopping blowout in Austin.

Since then, Texas looks firmly locked into a single-digit NCAA tournament seed with favorable metrics. It still holds a losing record in conference play at 5-7, though, which is more about the talent in the Big 12 than Texas itself.

Texas is dominant on offense, ranking a stellar 23rd in offensive efficiency. Max Abmas leads the unit with 17.8 points per game on 43% shooting and 38% from 3. Everyone knows Abmas from his days at Oral Roberts, and he’s done nothing but dominate in the best conference in America.

Inserting Dylan Disu into the lineup a month into the season completely changed the Longhorns' dynamic. Disu is averaging 16.9 points a night and offers a true inside-out scoring threat with his finishing ability inside and staggering 55% shooting from downtown.

Texas has a dominant duo in Disu and Abmas, as they're cycling for over 33 points per game.

The Longhorns rank 57th in defensive efficiency, but they've gradually improved throughout the season. I'm not surprised, since the current starting lineup features three strong defensive-minded pieces in Tyrese Hunter, Chendall Weaver and Kadin Shedrick.

In particular, Weaver has carved out a niche role as a defensive stopper and energy guy for the Horns. He's the perfect winning player to put into the starting lineup over Ithiel Horton.

Kansas State vs. Texas

Betting Pick & Prediction

While Texas is favorable in metrics and looks good more often than not, it doesn't translate well to covering the spread. The Longhorns' 9-16 ATS record is tied with West Virginia for the worst in the conference.

Even before diving into the ATS trends, I thought Kansas State's defensive strength and occasional shot-making from Perry and Carter could keep the game within arms reach.

I like to roll with the better teams against the spread, and K-State is that team in this Big 12 duel.

The Wildcats need to limit turnovers, as Texas loves turning opponents over. However, I think we'll see a decently close game.

Pick: Kansas State +8.5