Oregon vs. Creighton pick and prediction for 3/23: Ducks have nothing to lose

Oregon vs. Creighton Odds

Saturday, March 23, 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Oregon Ducks

Altman deserves a ton of credit for his work over the final month of the season. The Ducks are down to just eight healthy and available scholarship players following season-ending injuries to four key members of the team.

This roster was always supposed to be deeper and more talented than the one at Altman's disposal.

It always felt like each week as news of each injury shifted, someday the Ducks would get healthy and snap into form. Instead, all of the injured players were ruled out for the season, and Altman has been a MacGuyver with what's been left at his disposal, now with full view of the team he has for the stretch run.

Going beyond the sidelines, the players on the court deserve a ton of credit for stepping up in their elevated roles. None has been bigger than N'Faly Dante, who played one game before January 13 with an injury of his own.

On the Ducks' current five-game winning streak, he's averaging 21 points, nine rebounds, three steals, and two blocks per game. His athleticism in the paint changes the math defensively and on the offensive glass.

His activity on the interior is a blessing for perimeter creators Jackson Shelstad and Jermaine Couisnard, the latter of whom tossed up 40 points in the first round while playing against his former school.

The Ducks are well coached and playing like a team with nothing to lose. That's a scary combo in March.

Creighton Bluejays

For better or worse, this Creighton team has an identity and a game plan.

Offensively, the Bluejays value the deep ball, taking 3s at a top-10 rate in the country and second-most of any team in the field.

When Creighton does attack inside, Greg McDermott coaches his roster to take high value looks at the rim or look to kickout to another waiting shooter. The Jays rank outside the top 300 in the country in percentage of points coming from inside the arc or the free-throw line.

It's a sound strategy, given the make-up of the Creighton roster. Baylor Scheierman is a trigger-happy deadeye shooter. Steven Ashworth is a threat from beyond. Trey Alexander is Creighton's best slasher, but also shot 33% on more than 170 attempts from outside. Mason Miller and Francisco Farabello play the role of spot-up spacers, each hitting better than 43%.

On the other end of the court, Creighton's value of the 3-pointer continues. McDermott's entire defense is skewed to force teams into mid-range 2s, ranking last nationally in free-throw rate allowed and forcing turnovers — plus in the bottom 10 in 3-point rate allowed.

The Bluejays run teams off the perimeter, allowing penetration into the mid-range, knowing three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner protects the rim.

Creighton dares you to outscore its 3-point shooters by taking 2-point jump shots all day. Analytically, it's a sound bet.

On one single day, however, if the Bluejays go cold, it could bite them.

Oregon vs. Creighton

Betting Pick & Prediction

I'm not sure there's a team in this tournament with as high a ceiling and as low a floor as Creighton. With a hot shooting month, the Bluejays could absolutely win it all. Yet if Creighton goes cold from outside the arc for even a half, the Bluejays are liable to head home at any point.

That was even the case in First Round against Akron. The Zips kept things close, until Creighton's shooting stayed hot and buoyed a second half run.

The Bluejays ended the game making more than half of their attempts from long range, leaving a door half open for some regression in the back half of the weekend.

The bigger question comes defensively. Teams that have beaten Creighton all have the guard play to take advantage of Kalkbrenner's drop coverage.

While Couisnard will take a step back after Thursday's 40-point outburst, I'll have my eye on freshman point guard Shelstad. His ability to hit from the mid-range is a major factor.

If Creighton makes its 3s, the Bluejays run away with this one. If they're even average, I think the Ducks have enough offensive weapons to exploit the Creighton game plan.

Altman is now 16-6-1 ATS lifetime in the NCAA Tournament, though I will note he's 10-1-1 on Thursdays and Fridays in tourney play, struggling more with the quick turnaround.

Still, I like him and the Ducks to keep this close or steal a win.

Pick: Oregon +5.5