Virginia men's basketball should be NCAA Tournament lock

With the win, the Cavaliers moved to 18-5 (9-3 in the ACC), just 1.5 games behind North Carolina for first place in the conference. Eight games remain in the regular season, and Virginia is, once again, in the thick of the race for the regular-season crown. 

Why, then, are the Cavaliers still on the NCAA Tournament bubble? 

According to the latest bracket breakdowns from CBS Sports and ESPN, Virginia is a No. 11 and No. 10 seed, respectively. While those projections were posted prior to the Cavaliers’ dominant win over the Hurricanes, a team sitting at 8-3 in the ACC and boasting non conference wins over Florida and Texas A&M would typically be comfortably in the field of 68. 

But this season, for multiple reasons, is different. 

Let’s start with the macro reason. Virginia may be near the top of its conference, but unfortunately for Bennett and company, that conference is the ACC — which isn’t considered as strong as the Big 12, Big East or SEC currently. 

Should it be? In the inaugural ACC/SEC Challenge — a made-for-TV showcase that included Virginia knocking off Texas A&M, which is 13-8 (4-4 in the SEC) — the two leagues split the 14 matchups. That included Clemson beating first-place Alabama on the road by eight, and North Carolina beating Tennessee — the second-highest-rated SEC team at KenPom (behind only Auburn) in a 100-92 barnburner. 

Of course, Louisville and Notre Dame, tied for last place in the ACC at 2-9 in conference, serve as an anvil. But what about Vanderbilt and Missouri, two teams that boast a combined one conference win? Same goes for Georgetown and DePaul, the bottom two in the Big East. 

The Big 12’s bottom two, West Virginia and Oklahoma State, have combined for five conference victories, but we’re not disputing the fact that it's the best league in men’s hoops.

Then, you have Virginia’s metrics, partially borne out of the relative quality of its opponents. The Cavaliers are 47th at KenPom, 40th at Bart Torvik and 32nd in the NET Rankings, the NCAA’s maligned (and oftentimes illogical) rating system.

That standing puts Virginia firmly in bubble-ville. 

One glance at the tape, though, and the Cavaliers are clearly worthy of a tournament spot. Unsurprisingly, they defend at an elite level, allowing the fewest points in the ACC by nearly nine per game. Reece Beekman, one of the top two-way players in the country, is averaging career highs across the board (13.1 points, 6.1 assists and 2.4 steals per contest). 

They’ll get more chances to add to their résumé. The Cavaliers face Florida State (6-4 in the ACC) on Saturday, with matchups against No. 3 North Carolina (Feb. 24) and No. 9 Duke (Mar. 2) on the horizon. 

Of course, Virginia could just roll through the rest of the regular season, then get the job done in the ACC Tournament in Washington, D.C., and punch its automatic ticket to the dance. 

But it shouldn’t need to.