Wagner vs. Howard odds, pick for 3/19: Pace dictates a good look at the total

Wagner vs. Howard Odds

Tuesday, March 19, 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

Wagner Seahawks

As you might imagine, only having seven bodies for nearly three full months of the season leads to some stylistic concessions. Wagner plays extremely slowly, ranking 361st nationally in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo.

The Seahawks’ biggest injury hits were on the offensive end, leaving them somewhat limited on that end. Melvin Council Jr. provides some pop in the backcourt, but he's struggled to connect from the perimeter; he’s more of a volume scorer than an efficient one.

Still, he was Wagner’s only all-conference honoree.

Elsewhere, Tahron Allen profiles as a bit of a mismatch given his stout frame and skill off the bounce, and guards Javier Ezquerra and Julian Brown fit into complementary roles. But this roster sorely lacks game-breakers, having to manufacture baskets through patient ball movement.

Even when those guys all play well, Wagner lacks scoring punch inside and out. The Seahawks ranked 358th in the country in 2-point percentage this year, and they also faced zone at one of the nation’s highest rates (per Synergy) because of inefficient perimeter shooting.

Defensively, the Seahawks roll out zone quite a bit as well – both to control pace and to prevent foul trouble for their thin rotation.

The same goes for full court “pressure." Wagner extends over half-court on 32.9% of possessions, per Synergy, which ranks seventh nationally. However, it's purely to slow the game down and force foes to make a few passes before getting into their offense.

This isn't a team looking to speed you up and force a bushel of turnovers.

Howard Bison

After not making the NCAA tournament since 1992, Blakeney now has brought his Bison to the Big Dance for the second straight year. He quickly adapted to the transfer portal, using his connections and Howard’s superb academic standing to lure high-performing talent to the DMV area.

That helped him land a huge piece in Seth Towns, who's now in his eighth college basketball season. Towns’ career began at Harvard in 2016, but three medical redshirts have stalled an extremely promising career. Now he's a near-lock to record his first NCAA tournament points (he did play 12 scoreless minutes for Ohio State in 2021).

Towns, a versatile scoring forward, masquerades as a center for this Howard squad, making the Bison rather difficult to defend. He can invert the floor as a shooter, pulling the opponent’s bigs away from the bucket.

Blakeney surrounds him with more skilled offensive threats, most notably bowling ball wing Bryce Harris and lethal sniper Marcus Dockery. Both all-conference honorees, they were devastating in their roles.

Harris lives at the free-throw line but can also knock down an open jumper, while Dockery connected on 93 triples at a 41.2% clip this season.

The aforementioned injuries have hurt Howard’s offense, though. Forwards Shy Odom and Dom Campbell are both tough covers, but they missed all of the MEAC tournament.

In contrast, Isiah Warfield returned from a five-game absence and started all three MEAC tourney games. He brings more of a defensive presence.

And that presence is necessary for a team that can get blasted on that end. Size and rim protection are in short supply, meaning Howard's guards must keep foes in front, which is frequently easier said than done.

Wagner vs. Howard

Betting Pick & Prediction

Howard has some matchup advantages here, most notably its shooting prowess against Wagner’s zone looks, which surrenders plenty of perimeter jumpers. The Bison rank 19th nationally in 3-point percentage, so if they're able to get shots up, they can fill it up.

Additionally, Wagner’s rim attack won't take full advantage of Howard’s interior defense weakness. Allen and big man Keyontae Lewis will have some success, but likely not to extreme levels.

So, certainly simply betting the Bison is tempting. However, I believe Wagner is somewhat undervalued in the metrics due to its personnel limitations over the course of a long season.

That was on display in the do-or-die NEC tournament, when the Seahawks excelled while Copeland could really lean on his best players. Thus, I'm not in love with the price.

Instead, I love the under here. Wagner’s ability to control the pace is undeniable, and its defensive strengths have become even more apparent lately. Six straight Wagner games have stayed below 130 points; the Seahawks’ highest-scoring NEC tourney game had 116 points.

Howard, meanwhile, is something of a pace taker. The Bison will play slowly if you want to, or they'll get in a track meet if the opponent forces it.

Against Wagner, expect this game to be a very low possession game.

As long as Howard is not scorching from beyond the arc, the under should have some value.