Wisconsin Basketball vs. Illinois: Analytics Game Prediction

I said I’d love to see us consistently above 120.00 in Adjusted Efficiency, well we clocked in a 118.31 Adjusted Efficiency. Plenty good enough to get the job done; even with one of our worst 3P Shooting Performances of the year. All of which seem to come versus Purdue:

Part of this is how Purdue is able to defend us by putting Edey on Wahl, planting him in the Paint, and allowing Gillis to cover Crowl. Whose quickness really eliminated many of the Pick & Pop actions we utilize in our Continuity Ball-Screen actions to open up Crowl.

It also impacted AJ Storr. He just could not finish over Edey today, so he settled for a few too many 3s Saturday, most of which did not fall.

Even with those really major disruptive things to our offense, our ability to take care of the ball (7% Turnover Rate!!), and our willingness to crash the Offensive Boards (24.4% Offensive Rebound %) helped carry our Efficiency throughout the game. And give credit to Purdue; they are really good defenders who pressure and play physically without fouling.

Another really great offensive performance when looking at everything outside of 3P Shooting!

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency:

I’ve talked at length about Kamari McGee and his impact to the this teams defense. And yes he’s super important to our defensive “depth”, but Chucky Hepburn is the best individual defensive player on our team. On-Ball, Off-Ball he’s always in the right position and more importantly he’s athletic enough and savvy enough to cause/create turnovers that translate into easy buckets.

What he did to disrupt 1st-Team All B1G PG Braden Smith was an absolute MASTERCLASS:

He’s made Smith ~20 Points worse per 100 Possessions than when playing versus anybody else. Smith will be seeing him in his nightmares tonight!!!

Adjusted NET Efficiency:

We’re back where we need to be from a NET Efficiency standpoint. I said I don’t think we’re close to being an ELITE Defense, or really have the ability to be. Friday & Saturday may be starting to change my mind…as they’re starting to do this consistently possession-possession and now game-game.

This is the first time we’ve had 3 straight games at or below 100 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency!! Back when we’re doing that we we’re ranked #6; 8-1 in the B1G and getting put in 1-Seed Line conversations.

But really, all we need is competent defense like we were seeing Nov-Jan. With our offense, we can win a lot of ball games versus a lot of teams playing Good-Not-Great Defense.

The Badgers have heard their cue and are playing their best ball at exactly right moment.

With that, let’s dive into the Prediction Model for Sunday’s matchup vs. Illinois!!!

Wisconsin Basketball Prediction Model

First, let’s start off with what comprises my Prediction Model (See Below):

Pace:

Gard Your Fickell’s Model | 71 Projected Possesions

KenPom Model | 67 Projected Possesions

Torvik T-Rank | ???

Haslam Metrics | ??? (NOT UPDATED)

Height:

Wisconsin Basketball is at a Height disadvantage vs. Illinois, with an Average Height of 78.39 vs. 78.65 (inches).

This Height “Factor” influences my DREB% Model but is only a part of the equation. Combining the overall Height advantage and the other Metrics listed in the Model (3PAR, FTAR, 2P%, 3P%, and OPP OREB%), I can then project out each team’s DREB%.

DREB%:

Based on all the combined metrics in the DREB% Model, Wisconsin Basketball is projected to win the DREB% battle vs. Illinois, with an expectation of UW grabbing 76.43% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities in Sunday’s Matchup vs. an expectation that Illinois only grabs 72.02% of their Defensive Rebound opportunities.

DREB% is arguably the 2nd most important individual metric in basketball and a huge component in “Stop Factor”, essentially my own Defensive Efficiency Metric.

Stop_Factor:

Wisconsin is expected to win the Stop Factor Battle with an expectation we deliver a 1.57 in Stop Factor, while Illinois delivers a 1.45 in Stop Factor.

For those unfamiliar with Stop Factor, it’s looking at a Team’s ability to be efficient on Defense.

That can come in various ways:

• Low eFG% given up to your opponent
• Forcing a lot of turnovers
• Collecting a high % of Defensive Rebounds available.

A Stop Factor over 2 is really good, or in Rutgers’ case, indicative of a truly brutal offense and NoT eFG%!

Score Prediction | Model Table | EFF Ranks:

Final Thoughts on Wisconsin Basketball vs. Illinois

This would be a historic run in the B1G Tournament for Wisconsin Basketball. They’ve never won the B1G Tournament without being a #1 or #2 Seed. What won’t be historic is beating Illinois for the title; this would make it 3/4 over the Fighting Illini in the B1G Tournament Title Game if we get it done tomorrrow!!

The “OTHER” Analysts:

KenPom: 77 – 79 | +2 Margin

Torvik: 77 – 78 | +1 Margin

Gard Your Fickell: 80.36 – 79.40 | -0.96 Margin

Based on my Model, which puts significant weight to your adjusted performance over the last few games into account. It has Wisconsin as the FAVORITES to Illinois. Wheras KenPom and Torvik have us slight dogs in our Championship Matchup. Not sure how to account Back-Back-Back-Back or Back-Back-Back for ILL as that’ll certainly impact things.

And we’ll see now that Seeding may very well be locked in if Gard will sit Blackwell and Wahl. It looks as though, through the media, these boys want to go win a Title. And Wahl’s guaranteed games are down to 2, so I think we’re gonna go all out!

We got back on track against Vegas, beating all the other analysts but EvanMiya, whose Models had Purdue covering 5.5 Points. However, I was much closer to the Final Margin than Evan who had us as 5.1-Point Dogs, whereas I had us as 1.75-Point Dogs.

We’re on a fresh heater Against-The-Spread (A-T-S). Since I deployed the model, it is now 12-7 A-T-S (63%) in Wisconsin Basketball Games.

Over the Last 10 Games? The model is 8-2 A-T-S (80%).

And over the Last 5? The Model is now 4-1 (80%) A-T-S.

Responsible Gambling

It’s a quick turnaround, and back-backs are tough even for NBA guys. We’ll see how our defense holds up in a back-back-back-back against a consensus Top-10 Offense Best Team in the Country. I’m hopeful for another strong performance. I think we should go all out, playing Blackwell & Tyler Wahl. I think there’s definite potential that if we beat Illinois, we can get all the way back to the 4-Line. I know there’s not really a legitimate chance for a better seed. But I also think our “Fully Healthy” Resume is as good as anyone else’s in the country with a win vs. Illinois tomorrow:

We’d be 19-5 Fully Healthy

Our “Potential” Quad Record in those 26 Games:

Q1: 6-4

Q2: 6-1

Q3: 3-0

Q4: 4-0

I’d put that resume against anyone else vying for a #3 Seed. But the optics for the committee to do so are probably too much to overcome, especially when the team we’d most likely bump would be Duke.

So the chance is REALLY slim, but even if the incremental benefit is going from a 5 to a 4 Seed even that is worth it!

On Wisconsin!