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The electrifying matchup between the Yale Bulldogs and the San Diego State Aztecs focuses on a Cinderella story versus a perennial Elite Eight team.
Two stout defenses will go at it and attempt to limit the opponent’s offense. Here's an NCAA Tournament pick and prediction for Yale vs San Diego State basketball.
Yale vs. San Diego State Odds
Sunday, March 24, 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS
| Yale Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +5.5 -110 |
128.5 -110o / -110u |
+195 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -5.5 -110 |
128.5 -110o / -110u |
-240 |
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.
Yale Bulldogs
The Bulldogs, boasting an 87th-ranked Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, have demonstrated a balanced blend of shooting precision (82nd in eFG%) and ball security (22nd in turnover %), underscoring their disciplined approach to the game.
Despite their struggles on the offensive glass (197th in offensive rebounding) and at the free-throw line (311th in free-throw rate and 254th in free-throw percentage), Yale's ability to maintain possession and make the most out of its shooting opportunities highlights its potential to keep games competitive, even against higher-seeded teams.
Defensively, Yale presents a solid front, with an 84th-ranked Adjusted Efficiency and a particularly strong performance in defensive rebounding (13th), which could stifle the Aztecs' attempts to capitalize on second-chance points.
However, the Bulldogs' relatively weaker performance in forcing turnovers (245th) and an average effective field goal percentage allowed (147th) suggest vulnerabilities that San Diego State could exploit, particularly if it can navigate Yale's rebounding prowess.
San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs enter this contest with a slightly higher Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranking (61st), albeit with significant room for improvement in shooting (226th in effective field goal percentage).
Their ability to secure offensive rebounds (60th) and get to the free-throw line (64th in free-throw rate) compensates for their shooting deficiencies, indicating a resilience and aggressiveness that could pose problems for Yale's defense.
On the defensive end, the Aztecs shine, ranking 10th in Adjusted Efficiency and showcasing a robust defense that limits opponents' effective field goal percentage (29th).
Despite an average performance in forcing turnovers (109th) and a middling defensive rebounding rank (142nd), their overall defensive prowess — especially in suppressing opponents' shooting efficiency — stands as a cornerstone of their strategy, potentially stifling Yale's offense.
Yale vs. San Diego State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, taking San Diego State to cover -5.5 points emerges as the best bet for this matchup.
The Aztecs' defensive acumen — particularly their ability to limit opponents' shooting efficiency — aligns well against a Yale team that — while competent offensively — may struggle against top-tier defenses.
Additionally, San Diego State's resilience on the offensive boards and its capacity to draw fouls could amplify its scoring opportunities, further tilting the scales in its favor.
The Aztecs also have the luxury of experience, as they typically march deep into the Madness.
Take San Diego State -5.5 and expect a comfortable win by the Aztecs.
Pick: San Diego State -5.5
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