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South Carolina Gamecocks head coach Dawn Staley. Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Women's Final Four burning questions: Where is South Carolina most vulnerable?

By Eric Smithling | Last updated 4/4/24

The women's NCAA Tournament's Final Four features a pair of games, UConn-Iowa and NC State-South Carolina, with several intriguing matchups and storylines.

Here are four questions whose answers will determine which teams advance to Sunday's national championship game.

Does UConn have the depth to keep pace with Iowa?

Iowa ranks 13th in the country in pace, and if it controls the tempo against UConn, it might be able to take the wind out of a depleted Huskies roster. This season, UConn lost five players to season-ending injuries. Stars Paige Bueckers and forward Aaliyah Edwards played the entire game against USC, and Bueckers is averaging 38.8 minutes per game in the tournament.

How do the Huskies guard Caitlin Clark?

UConn defends the three-point line well, allowing opponents to make 28.5 percent of their attempts from deep. Guard Nika Mühl could arguably be the Huskies' most important player. The two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year is taller than LSU's Hailey Van Lith, making her one-on-ones with Clark less of a mismatch.

Head coach Geno Auriemma will likely remind his team to fight under screens set for Clark. As she showed early against the Tigers, she's too good to give any space.

Kim Mulkey putting Haley Van Lith on Caitlin Clark (and keeping her on her for the majority of the game) is one of the most baffling coaching decisions I've seen in a high level game. She had no chance of containing Clark in space. pic.twitter.com/MFnnakY9tM
— Basketball Truther (@banthecharge) April 2, 2024

Considering her limitless range, UConn should consider applying pressure as soon as she crosses halfcourt. While Clark's passing is phenomenal, the Huskies' best bet of winning is forcing her to give up the ball. UConn ranks 32nd in the country in steal rate (12 percent), while Clark is averaging 4.8 turnovers per game in the tournament

Where is undefeated South Carolina most vulnerable?

Teams only reach the Final Four if they excel at most things. South Carolina is exceptional on both ends of the court, ranking third in offensive and first in defensive ratings.

The Gamecocks only lag behind the country in one area, getting to the free-throw line and making their attempts when they get there. Per Her Hoop Stats, only 15.3 percent of South Carolina's points come from the foul line, which ranks 311th in the country. The Gamecocks make 69.1 percent of their attempts, which is 259th. If the team shoots poorly, it might not be able to make up the difference at the foul line.

How does NC State pull off the upset?

Does guard Saniya Rivers have a revenge game in her? The former South Carolina recruit transferred to NC State following her freshman season. She's arguably the team's best perimeter defender, averaging a team-high 2.2 steals per game. In the Wolfpack's last two games—against first-seed Texas and second-seed Stanford—their opponents shot 6-of-31 (19.4 percent) from beyond the arc.

Senior 6-foot-5 center River Baldwin must avoid foul trouble as the only NC State big to receive consistent playing time this season. Fortunately for the Wolfpack, they're one of the most disciplined teams in the country. Per Her Hoop Stats, NC State has the country's fourth-lowest foul rate (15.4 percent). Opponents rank third in the country in the lowest free throw rate (10.2 percent) and 10th in the fewest percentage of points from the foul line (12.8 percent).

If the Wolfpack, seventh in Her Hoop Stats' defensive rating, hold their own in the half-court, they might pull off the upset. South Carolina could potentially not get many second-chance or fast-break points. NC State only averages 12.1 turnovers per game and ranks second in defensive rebounds, limiting opponents to a 24.7 percent offensive rebound rate, the 12th lowest in the country.

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