Women’s Final Four: UConn vs. Iowa odds, picks, prediction, best bet for Friday 4/5

UConn vs. Iowa Odds

Friday, April 5, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAW odds here.

UConn Huskies Betting Preview

Head coach Geno Auriemma himself didn’t think the Huskies would be here. Earlier in the year, he said it would take a miracle to get back to this point. UConn has more players out to injuries than players available, is starting two freshmen and had its worst nonconference record in more than a decade.

Even to start this tournament, the Huskies were not winning in dominating fashion, going 1-3 ATS up to this point. However, Bueckers is the X-Factor who has changed the trajectory of the season and gotten the Huskies to the Final Four. The senior guard is healthy, hungry and on a tear through this tournament. Calvin Wetzel had this gem of a stat to show how wild Bueckers' tournament run has been:

Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview

Outside of the obvious cooking of the LSU defense from Caitlin Clark on her way to a legendary 41-point performance in front of 12.3 million viewers, one thing was absolutely consistent from the Iowa Hawkeyes: the scout and coaching performances were truly phenomenal.

Iowa dictated the pace for 40 minutes against LSU as the Hawkeyes encouraged midrange jumpers, and all five Hawkeyes on the court crashed the glass. Iowa assistant coach Raina Harmon had the scout for the last two LSU games, and this gameplan worked to perfection.

Sure, Angel Reese tweaking an ankle and going 1-of-10 after the injury helps, but no one was stopping Clark and the Hawkeyes on Monday night.

UConn vs Iowa Prediction, Bet

This will be Clark's third attempt to knock off UConn. In her freshman year, UConn defeated Iowa, 92-72, in the Sweet 16 as Clark shot 7-of-21 from the floor and finished with 21 points. Last September, Iowa lost a tough battle to UConn, 86-79, in which Clark went just 9-of-24 from the field and finished with 25 points.

Will UConn end Clark's last college season like it ended her first? Or will the third time be the charm for Clark to take down her childhood dream school?

There are no bad teams and no bad coaches left in the NCAA Tournament in the Final Four. In fact, Auriemma may be the greatest coach of all time and deserves a ton of credit for even getting to a Final Four after losing so much talent to injuries this year. But at some point, the lack of depth will catch up to the Huskies.

Clark in primetime will get it done for the Hawkeyes on Friday. I'm backing Iowa at -2.5 on the spread at -110 for 1.5 units.

UConn vs Iowa Pick: Iowa -2.5 (-110) | 1.5 Units

In addition to my spread pick, I'm also betting a few player props. First, I like Paige Bueckers Over 4.5 assists -120 at FanDuel for one unit. Bueckers has had at least six assists in three of her four tournament games. With the lack of depth for UConn, it's very likely she plays all 40 minutes.

My second prop bet is Sydney Affolter to score 15+ points at +118 on FanDuel for one unit. Since the Molly Davis injury, Affolter has been inserted into the starting lineup and has been a huge part of Iowa’s success. She has gone from being a rotation player to playing 35 minutes a game. Affolter has emerged as a fearless competitor whose confidence is booming.

My last player prop bet is for Caitlin Clark to record a triple-double at +430 on FanDuel for a half unit. Final Four triple-double? Why not! Clark was two assists and four rebounds short in last year’s win against the Gamecocks.