The BYU Cougars get set to host the Boise State Broncos in what is being described as Boise State’s “toughest game of season”.
AccuScore has BYU as a solid 58.1 percent favorite to win this week’s matchup against Boise State. The average rounded score after 10,000 simulations is 32-29, with BYU having just a 41 percent chance of covering the -7.5 spread. Via OddsShark, BYU is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home, and 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last 6 games.
There is just a 47.5 percent chance the score goes over 61.5. However, it is important to note that the total has gone over in 10 of Boise State’s last 13 games on the road and in 4 of BYU’s last 6 games at home.
Both teams have a fairly similar probability at a close win (4 pts or less). With the projected turnovers being practically the same (1.7 vs 1.6), BYU fans might have to prepare for a more competitive game than expected.
Passing: Taysom Hill (BYU) 267.9 yds | Grant Hedrick (BOI) 240.0 yds
Rushing: Jay Ajayi (BOI) 121.8 yds | Jamaal Williams (BYU) 84.6 yds
Receiving: Cody Hoffman (BYU) 64.1 yds | Matt Miller (BOI) 59.9 yds
The data projects a 3-7 pt. margin of victory for BYU. I, however, would give up the 7.5 points and take BYU.
All projection data has been provided by AccuScore.