An Early Outlook on the Big Ten East

6.  Rutgers - 2023 record prediction - (5-7, 4-5 Big Ten)

The fourth-largest school in the Big Ten still can’t muster up signature wins year after year, even under the guidance of ex-NFL head coach Greg Schiano, who has been the man in charge in Piscataway since 2019, his second stint and 15th season overall.

Schiano’s team has failed to reach bowl game expectations consistently, which was the case last season. The Scarlett Knights finished 4-8, struggling to remain competitive in a deep Big Ten East while also losing to Ohio State Penn State, and Michigan again, going 0-9 against the trio in four seasons. While winning at least one of those three may turn a season around, Rutgers has not been as lucky.

To make matters worse, the Scarlet Knights’ offense struggled to score points consistently, resulting in many lopsided defeats against the likes of Ohio State, Maryland, and Penn State, as the team only averaged 13 points per game and was lucky to score three touchdowns when called upon.

Things will look to change in 2023 with the addition of offensive coordinator Kirk Cirarrocca and his new quarterback Naseim Brantley, though it is unknown whether or not Brantley will earn the starting job.

 The defense should be the team’s centerpiece with some key players returning, including Max Melton and Robert Longerbeam in the secondary. The Scarlet Knights managed a -6 turnover differential and will need that number to blossom to have a chance to remain competitive.

Nonetheless, the Big Ten East is still a gauntlet, as Rutgers will endure several road challenges against the division’s top teams, including Michigan and Penn State. As far as ease is concerned, Rutgers opens the season against 2022’s worst Big Ten team, Northwestern, and closes with a Maryland team who may or may not be nursing quarterback injuries by late November.

This is Schiano’s most important year to date, especially given how much of an upward trajectory Rutgers was on nearly 20 years ago. Can Rutgers shock everyone? It remains to be seen.

5. Maryland - 2023 record prediction - (6-6, 5-4 Big Ten)

Mike Locksley's turnaround of the Maryland Terrapins might be the most underrated, and it’s only getting stronger. 

Maryland managed to finish 8-5, which included a third-straight bowl appearance and near-upsets with Michigan and Ohio State. Maryland’s upward trajectory will have to continue if it wants to reach the top half of the standings in the coming years.

The biggest storyline is the return of Taulia Tagovailoa, who decided to heal up and not partake in the NFL Draft,  He will look to remain one of the conference’s best quarterbacks alongside J.J. McCarthy and Kyle McCord from Michigan and Ohio State, respectively. 

To compliment Tagovailoa’s multi-dimensional playmaking abilities, Maryland added Kaden Prather and Tyrese Chambers via the transfer portal in the offseason. Prather comes from a pass-heavy West Virginia team that scored at least 20 points in seven out of 12 games last year. Meanwhile, Chambers has experience from his stint at FIU, where he scored four touchdowns and racked up over 500 yards receiving a season ago.

Maryland opens against Towson before ending the year with Michigan and Rutgers. A win in either game could make or break bowl eligibility. 

4. Michigan State - 2023 record prediction - (7-6, 5-4 Big Ten)

Mel Tucker will look to steer the ship forward in his fourth season as Michigan State’s coach, as the team failed to reach back-to-back bowl games after winning the Peach Bowl in Atlanta in 2021. The Spartans went just 5-7 in 2022 after being ranked No. 15  in the preseason AP Poll.

Gone are the likes of wide receiver Keon Coleman, quarterback Payton Thorne, and wideout Jayden Reed on the offensive side of the ball. Despite the uncertainty, the Spartans will look to turn to a new signal caller, Noah Kim, to rekindle the attack that made them elite a few seasons ago.

The Spartans will have to increase their scoring efficiency, finishing in the bottom half of the conference in several categories, including total offense and scoring offense.

The big question remains as to whether or not the Spartans can recreate the magic of 2015-16 or, quite frankly, 2021-22. At the moment, however, Tucker’s seat is only getting warmer for a team with a lot of potential. Michigan State failed to reach a bowl game a season ago, as it got humbled by Michigan, dropped a heartbreaker against Indiana, and stumbled against Washington.

Michigan State does have bright spots to watch out for, though. It returns several key starters to help the offensive attack, including tight end Maliq Carr and running back Jalen Berger, who rushed for nearly 700 yards and scored six touchdowns.

Michigan State also returns a majority of an offensive line that was ranked fourth in the FBS last season, which includes center Nick Samec and left guard J.D. Duplain, as the unit only gave up 18 sacks all year.

The Spartans' defense is where more woeful issues could arise, however. 

Last season was a tough year for incoming fourth-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton, who went through a continuous rotation of 27 different players due to various issues stemming from injuries, on-field incidents, and much more. The unit just missed the cut as a top-100 FBS defense but does return the likes of Cal Haladay and Jacoby Windmon as the key to the linebacking corp. The Spartans also brought in several transfer pieces to fix the mess, including Texas A&M transfer, Tunmise Adeleye, who played in two games as a freshman but was a four-star recruit and the No. 4 defensive lineman upon transferring out of College Station.

Despite the Spartans’ depth, their schedule is one to be concerned with. As per usual, they get Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State in conference play, as all three teams have had their number in past seasons under Tucker, but the non-conference schedule is just as concerning near the end of September, culminating with a home rematch against Washington in Week 3.

If the Spartans can’t get going early, it could be another difficult season resulting in a missed opportunity for a bowl game appearance. 

3. Penn State - 2023 record prediction - (9-3, 6-3 Big Ten)

The three best teams in the Big Ten could all undoubtedly have a shot at a berth in Indianapolis, Ind. come December, but for James Franklin, this might be his most important season to date. 

The Nittany Lions dominated the 2022 regular season, as the team finished  11-2 en route to a Rose Bowl victory against Utah in Pasadena, Calif. Their only two losses came to the league’s two best teams in Michigan and Ohio State, arguably making Penn State the third-best team in the nation, depending on perspective.

Currently, though, Penn State is on a mission to finish what it started last year, 

The Nittany Lions return several key starters, which includes the one-two running back combination of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined for 1,928 yards and 22 touchdowns. 

The running back room might be the offense’s most impressive asset, as the Nittany Lions will have to rely on newly-minted quarterback Drew Allar, who has only played in 10 games since his arrival at State College. Receivers include KeAndre Lambert-Smith as a key returnee, but the Nittany Lions will have to turn to transfers in Malik McClain from Florida State and Dante Cephas from Kent State to make a name for themselves in the passing attack.

Defensively, Diaz returns team sack leader Abdul Carter, who took down the quarterback nearly seven times as a true freshman. Curtis Jacobs opted out of the NFL Draft process, making him a valuable asset at linebacker for his junior season.

Nonetheless, Penn State faces a tough road to remain in the thick of the College Football Playoff race, likely having to beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa to do so. A trap game to watch out for cones in mid-September against Illinois in Champaign, but starting 2-0 immediately will pay dividends as the season moves along and only gets more challenging.

2. Ohio State - 2023 record prediction - (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten)

Ryan Day has an impressive track record as Ohio State’s head coach, going 42-6 since taking over for Urban Meyer four years ago.

The knock on Day, however, is his track record against Michigan, going just 1-2 with back-to-back losses against the Wolverines. Both games ultimately decided the Big Ten East and conference champion, although the Buckeyes managed to join the Wolverines in the College Football Playoff nonetheless.

The Buckeyes lost several key pieces from a season ago, including quarterback C.J. Stroud to the NFL. The team will look to reload its firepower with the return of Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver, as he dominated the Big Ten with 14 touchdowns and 1,263 yards. Complimenting him will be fellow wideout, Emeka Egbuka, who caught 10 touchdowns a season ago. A story to watch, like most years at Ohio State, is the quarterback position. Likely starter Kyle McCord enters his junior season to take over the controls Stroud left the quarterback room with. The Buckeyes also lost Paris Johnson and Dawand Jones upfront, as they were two important centerpieces of an offensive line that only gave up 12 sacks the entire year.

What might be the Buckeyes' most dominant offensive attribute is their running game, as they return TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, totaling 21 touchdowns between them. Both are afterburner-type backs who could change the game at a moment's notice, essentially guaranteeing Ohio State a chance in every game it plays.

Defensively, the Buckeyes will look to rebuild as they struggled when the season mattered most back in November and December, giving up 43.5 points in losses to Michigan and Georgia, ending their season.

Nonetheless, Ohio State will likely have to win the Michigan game to lock up an undefeated regular season and a spot in the College Football Playoff.

1. Michigan - 2023 record prediction - (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten)

Arguably Jim Harbaugh's best team yet, the Michigan Wolverines are one of the country's frontrunners to win a national title. J.J. McCarthy is back for his junior season as the starting quarterback for likely one last run toward glory, Compilmenting the La Grange Park, Ill. native is the running back tandem of Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum. For Corum especially, this is his opportunity to increase his draft stock, as the then-junior suffered a torn meniscus late last season, failing to win the Doak Walker Award despite 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns to show for it.

Upfront, Michigan returns Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan as two of the best lineman in the nation. As a team, Michigan's offensive line only allowed 17 sacks, good enough for a top-20 finish in the FBS last season. 

The tight end and wide receiver positions are where Michigan struggles greatly. Its leading top target, Cornelious Johnson, failed to crack 1,000 receiving yards a year ago but will be joined by transfers such as ex-Indiana tight end A.J. Barner to fix the passing attack. The Wolverines still have Colston Loveland, a fan-favorite who should also provide stability.

Defensively, Michigan returns veterans Junior Colson and Michael Barrett, who enters his sixth season as a Wolverine. Will Johnson also returns at cornerback and the special teams remain a question mark, with various position battles still taking shape.

Nonetheless, Michigan should coast through the regular season, as their schedule begins with four straight home games before the tough part of the Big Ten East gets underway. Michigan has the benefit of getting Ohio State at home, along with its conference opener against Rutgers, but will have to go on the road to Penn State and Michigan State, two historically difficult environments to win at.

My Big Ten title game prediction

Despite their improvements on the offensive side of the ball, Iowa still will be unable to hang with the reigning Big Ten champs. Michigan wins 38-21 against Iowa and clinches a berth in the College Football Playoff once again.