Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3). John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

CFP semifinal: Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies betting picks, preview

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 12/30/23

Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (3). Mikala Compton/American-Statesma / USA TODAY NETWORK

Washington earned its way to this spot with a perfect record in the last season of the Pac-12, while Texas won the Big 12 in its last go around the league. Both programs are entering new conferences next season and what better way than to do so as National Champions. Ironically, these teams met last season during the bowls with Washington winning. Who knew it was foreshadowing?

Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies Betting Trends and Odds

Monday, Jan. 1, 2024 — 8:50 p.m. ET
Odds: Texas -4, Over/under 63.5, Texas -180 | Washington +155

When these teams met last year, the offenses definitely were the stronger units. The oddsmakers are looking for that to be the case again with a point total of almost 20 more points than the other semifinal. I was a little surprised that Texas was made a favorite of more than three points (key number). Washington has proven all season long to be such a resilient team.

Picks for Texas vs. Washington

Washington +4

These are two very good teams. Their quarterbacks are the stars, even though Texas had some news with their top backup finding a new spot in the transfer portal, but that should have no real bearing on this game or the playoffs. Texas QB Quinn Ewers is the better NFL quarterback prospect, but Washington's Michael Penix Jr. has been money for the Huskies and with a set of NFL-bound receivers he is very dangerous.

Three reasons Washington can beat Texas

Three reasons Texas can beat Washington

Washington has the rare offense that can be both efficient and explosive and I trust the coach to have an effective game plan. I am not expecting too many stops in this one, though I do give the nod to Texas on that side of the ball. This looks like a game where whoever has the ball last, and doesn't blink, wins. Washington has lots of experience in those kinds of games.

The markets are with us right now on this one as Washington is bringing in more of the tickets and the money. At worst, that might pull away some value and make this game +3. I truly think Washington will win outright, and so I might split my stake between the spread and the moneyline.

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