College football Week 12: Picks and preview

Undefeated since a 17-point loss against Texas Tech to open the season, Houston has been shown some love by the College Football Playoff selection committee this week. The Cougars, paced by an offense averaging 38.9 points, join Cincinnati as the lone undefeated teams in the American Athletic Conference play. Houston, though, has dropped five straight against Memphis, which has lost four consecutive AAC road games dating to last season.

Prediction: Houston (-8 1/2)

San Diego State has matched the best 10-game start in program history and won two straight since losing to Fresno State. It's not often we highlight kickers, but the Aztecs' Matt Araiza is truly something special. Not only does he lead the nation with a 52.2 average yards per punt and has a season-best 86-yarder to his credit, but his two fourth-quarter field goals help SDSU to a 23-21 win over Nevada last week. UNLV is aiming for a third straight win but has dropped six of the last seven in this series.

Predictions: UNLV (+10 1/2)

This is quite the moment for Wake Forest. Amid a truly special season, the Deacons can clinch the ACC Atlantic Division title with a win at Clemson. A place where they haven't won since 1998. In fact, Wake has dropped its last 12 games with the Tigers since a 12-7 victory in 2008. However, these 2021 Tigers are far from dominant. Yet, they have totaled 104 points during their three-game winning streak over Florida State, Louisville, and Connecticut.

Prediction: Clemson (-4 1/2)

We won't learn anything new about Georgia this weekend, in what's likely to be nothing more than an opportunity to show off its already impressive depth. And next weekend's rivalry matchup at Georgia Tech could also be of the blowout variety. Since the start of the 1986 season, Georgia is 21-0 against FCS opponents. The Bulldogs have won the last three such matchups by a 150-31 advantage.

Predictions: Georgia (OFF)

Arguably the biggest game on the Week 12 slate. The loser will see their College Football Playoff dreams all but shattered. Michigan State bounced back from that loss at Purdue by taking care of Maryland, but it's been outscored 160-31 during a four-game losing streak to Ohio State. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, have averaged 48.8 points during their nine-game winning streak and are playing with plenty of confidence. C.J. Stroud (3,036 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, five interceptions) is coming off a five-TD game against the Boilermakers.

Prediction: Michigan State (+19)

A rematch of the 2020 Big 12 Championship game might have lost some of its luster. Iowa State has lost two of its last three games and is 1-3 on the road in the league. However, the story is at Oklahoma, where the Sooners are coming off their first loss of the season -- 27-14 at upstart Baylor -- to throw a wrench in their CFP hopes. Caleb Williams (zero touchdowns, two interceptions vs. Baylor) is slated to start after struggling last weekend and giving way to Spencer Rattler for a spell. It will be interesting to see the level of mettle these Sooners have to bounce back.

Prediction: Oklahoma (-4)

The lopsided matchups in the SEC continue with Texas A&M, which is looking to bounce back from a 29-19 loss at Ole Miss. That shouldn't be a problem for the Aggies, who are 25-0 against FCS opponents since the start of the 1982 season. That included a 67-0 victory over Prairie View A&M from 2011. For what it's worth, the Panthers currently lead the SWAC West Division.

Prediction: Texas A&M (OFF)

With last weekend's impressive 18-point comeback at Auburn, Mississippi State improved to 3-1 this season against SEC teams ranked in The Associated Press Top 25. Now, the Bulldogs appear in very good shape to secure their first winning season since 2018 while entering what's likely nothing more than a tune-up for next week's Egg Bowl matchup with Ole Miss. It might also be time to pay attention to Bulldogs quarterback Will Rogers (3,722 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, eight interceptions).

Prediction: Mississippi State (OFF)

The Big Ten West Division race has essentially come to Iowa and Wisconsin. The schools are tied atop the West, but the Badgers own the tiebreaker via their 27-7 win over the Hawkeyes on Oct. 30. Iowa has followed that defeat with a pair of five-point wins over Northwestern and Minnesota. It's won seven in a row over Illinois, but the Illini have brightened a dismal season by beating a then-top-10 Penn State team and then-CFP-ranked Minnesota squad on the road. Illinois coach Bret Bielema will miss the game due to a breakthrough case of COVID-19.

Prediction: Illinois (+12)

Notre Dame is playing some of the best football by any team in the country at the moment. And that's not a stretch of a statement. Since losing 24-13 at home then-No. 7 Cincinnati, the Irish have outscored their last five opponents 169-88 and beat Navy and Virginia over the last two games by a combined 53 points. Georgia Tech has lost four in a row, but its three road losses this season have come by a combined 17 points.

Predictions: Notre Dame (-17)

Alabama is back to SEC play following a 56-point non-conference romp of New Mexico State last weekend. The Crimson Tide will aim for a 15th straight victory over Arkansas, which hasn't won a game in this series since 2006. The Razorbacks have won three in a row to work their way back into the CFP rankings, but their last two wins over Mississippi State and LSU came by three points each.

Prediction: Arkansas (+21)

The Bearcats remain on the outside looking in at the CFP, but Oklahoma's loss last weekend helped their case. Still, this is not expected to be an easy test for Cincinnati. Yes, it's won four of five meetings with SMU dating to the 2013 season and the Mustangs have lost back-to-back road games at Houston and Memphis. But, SMU averages 41.6 points per contest. Cincinnati's vaunted defense did just give up 28 points to two-win South Florida.

Prediction: Cincinnati (-10 1/2)

Before the Wolverines can think about ending their misery against archrival Ohio State, there's work to be taken care of in the vicinity of the nation's capital. Michigan escaped Penn State with a 21-17 victory to keep its Big Ten title hopes alive. The Wolverines have won five straight over Maryland by an average margin of 32.2 points. That trend could continue since the Terps have been outscored 257-120 while losing five of their last six in the league.

Prediction: Michigan (-14 1/2)

These are the top two teams in the ACC Coastal Division. Pitt wins that title with a victory over the Cavaliers, who have lost two in a row and allowed 134 points in their last three. While Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett (3,517 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, four interceptions) gets plenty of praise, Jordan Addison is among the nation's top receivers with 60 catches for 1,070 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Prediction: Pittsburgh (-14 1/2)

This is the biggest game of the week, and perhaps the season, in Conference USA. These are the top two teams in the league's West Division and a UTSA victory would clinch that title and continue the school's special season. UAB, however, aims for a third consecutive victory and has won the last four meetings with the Roadrunners by an average of 20.3 points. UTSA's Sincere McCormick has rushed 3,600 yards in three seasons, including 150 against the Blazers last season.

Predictions: UTSA (-4 1/2)

In the driver's seat for the Big Ten West Division title, Wisconsin is among the hottest teams in the country while riding a six-game winning streak. Since losing 38-17 to Michigan on Oct. 2, the Badgers have outscored their six opponents 188-66. Freshman running back Braelon Allen is turning into a star while averaging 130 yards and 7.4 per carry with eight touchdowns over the last six games. That likely doesn't bode well for Nebraska, which has lost four straight -- by a combined 24 points -- overall and seven in a row to Wisconsin.

Prediction: Wisconsin (-9)

The Cougars are back on track with three consecutive wins since losing those back-to-back contests to Boise State and Baylor last month. They've also totaled 125 in their last two against Virginia and Idaho State. BYU could again pile up the points against Georgia Southern, which just snapped a four-game losing streak by winning 38-30 at Texas State, but allows an average of 31.6 points.

Predictions: BYU (-20)

The CFP selection committee still has a fondness for N.C. State, even after it lost 45-42 barnburner at Wake Forest last weekend. There's no doubt the Wolfpack are among the best teams in the ACC, and they'll try for a third consecutive victory over Syracuse so that national love is understandable. The Orange have a chance to go bowling for the first time since 2018, but they are 1-2 on the road in the ACC.

Prediction: North Carolina State (-11 1/2)

Coming off that massive victory over Oklahoma last weekend, Baylor could face a trap game at Kansas State. The Bears still have a shot at the Big 12 title, but both of their losses have come on the road in the Big 12, and the Wildcats are riding a four-game winning streak and allowed 39 points over the last three contests. K-State, though, must contain Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon, who rushed for 107 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries against the Sooners.

Prediction: Kansas State (-1)

A contract incentive of $150,000  for coach Lane Kiffin's fifth SEC victory of the season is about all that's intriguing about this matchup. Ole Miss has won the last two meetings with Vandy by a combined 58 points. The Commodores have dropped 19 consecutive SEC road games dating to a 21-14 victory at then-No. 22 Missouri on Oct. 19, 2019. Facing a Rebels' group looking for a ninth straight home win, we don't see that slide ending this weekend.

Prediction: Vanderbilt (+36 1/2)

All signs point to this being a preview of the Pac-12 Championship game. Does that mean either team will be holding something back? The Ducks have won three of the last four meetings in this series, and most recently in the league championship game from 2019. Oregon has averaged 37.5 points in its last four games, while Utah hasn't allowed more than 29 while winning three in a row.

Prediction: Oregon (+3)

All signs point to this year's installment of the Bedlam rivalry as potentially being for the Big 12 regular-season title. Of course, Baylor might have something to see about that. First, Oklahoma State must get by Texas Tech, which is coming off that thrilling 41-38 win over Iowa State last weekend. However, the Red Raiders now face a Cowboys' squad that's allowed 23 points over the last three games and boasts one of the nation's top rushers in Jaylen Warren (1,041 rushing yards, 10 TDs).

Prediction: Texas Tech (+10 1/2)