Five CFB games to watch: Dark-horse Heisman finalists square off in SEC title game

History suggests the College Football Playoff field isn't set. In six of the nine seasons of the CFP era, at least one team in the top four of the penultimate rankings failed to reach the semifinals.

Championship Weekend features a top-five Pac-12 showdown, Nick Saban as an underdog and Florida State walking a tightrope. Here's what to watch for in Week 14. (All games Saturday unless noted.)

The Heisman game: No. 1 Georgia (12-0, 8-0 in SEC) at No. 8 Alabama (11-1, 8-0 | 4 p.m. ET (Atlanta)

The Heisman is a two-horse race between Oregon's Bo Nix and LSU's Jayden Daniels, but four finalists will be invited to New York for the ceremony. One of those spots will likely go to Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., which leaves one spot up for grabs. 

Georgia's Carson Beck has somehow been overlooked all season despite quarterbacking the best team in the country and posting better numbers than 2022 Heisman finalist Stetson Bennett did at this time last season. Meanwhile, Alabama's Jalen Milroe — perhaps the most improved quarterback from the start of the season — should be headed to New York if he can lead the Crimson Tide to an upset over the Bulldogs.

The five-star game: No. 5 Oregon (11-1, 8-1 in Pac-12) at No. 3 Washington (12-0, 9-0) | Friday, 8 p.m. ET (Las Vegas)

Per oddschecker on Friday morning, Oregon is an 8.5-point favorite despite losing the first meeting between the teams, 36-33. Penix Jr. has had a quiet second half to his season but threw for four touchdowns and 302 yards when the teams met in October. That performance marked his sixth consecutive 300-yard game to begin the season. During Washington's past six games, Penix only eclipsed the 300-yard mark twice.

Meanwhile, Ducks QB Nix played his best during the past month, explaining Oregon's sizable point spread and positioning it well for a spot in the semifinals. 

Note: Washington held on for win in the last Pac-12 title game.

Upset special: New Mexico State (10-3, 7-1 in C-USA) at No. 24 Liberty (12-0, 8-0) | Friday, 7 p.m. ET

Liberty won its first meeting against New Mexico State in Week 2, 33-17, but it would be an understatement to say the Flames caught the Aggies at the right time. New Mexico State began the season 2-3, including a season-opening loss to lowly UMass (3-9). The Aggies won eight straight to qualify for the Conference USA title game, including an impressive 31-10 win at Auburn on Nov. 18. 

Aggies dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia has 2,727 passing yards and leads the team with 806 rushing yards. He should come out on top in a potential quarterback duel with Kaidon Salter. 

Note: Liberty outgunned New Mexico State.

Wild-card game: No. 14 Louisville (10-2, 7-1 in ACC) at No. 4 Florida State (12-0, 8-0 | 8 p.m. ET (Charlotte)

Florida State quarterback Tate Rodemaker won his first start last weekend, a 24-15 comeback in The Swamp against Florida (5-7, 3-5 in SEC), but will he play? He suffered a hit to the head against Florida and has not been a full participant in practice all week. FSU could call on freshman QB Brock Stern.

The Seminoles should make the playoff with a win over Louisville in the ACC Championship Game. However, doubt lingers about them without quarterback Jordan Travis, who was lost for the season to a leg injury in Week 12.  

One of the best matchups to watch will be Cardinals corners Jarvis Brownlee Jr., who played for Florida State from 2019-21, Storm Duck and Quincy Riley against Florida State's outstanding wide receivers, including Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman.

Per Pro Football Focus, Riley is among the stingiest defensive backs in the country, allowing a reception on only 38.9 percent of his targets.

Under-the-radar game: SMU (10-2, 8-0 in AAC) at No. 22 Tulane (11-1, 8-0 | 4 p.m. ET 

This game is likely for the Group of Five spot in the Peach Bowl. Liberty has an outside shot, but its strength of schedule — last in the country — should give the committee pause about putting it over even a potential two-loss conference champion Mustangs. 

SMU lost to Big 12 opponents Oklahoma and TCU, which shouldn't disqualify it from a New Year's Six bowl bid if it wins the American Athletic Conference. Tulane's path is much easier; all the Green Wave must do is win to clinch their second consecutive New Year's Six bowl appearance.