Former Alabama quarterback turned college football analyst Greg McElroy doesn't think the Tennessee Vols stand a very good chance of reaching the College Football Playoff in 2024.
McElroy broke down several SEC team's chances of reaching the 12-team playoff in 2024 on this week's "Always College Football" and he gave Tennessee an absurdly low chance.
The former Alabama quarterback is only giving the Vols a 15 percent chance of reaching the playoff.
That's compared to these percentages for the other playoff contenders in the SEC.
Georgia -- 90 percent
Texas -- 70 percent
Alabama -- 70 percent
Ole Miss -- 60 percent
LSU -- 55 percent
Missouri -- 50 percent
Oklahoma -- 10 percent
"I think right now 8-4 is most likely," said McElroy while discussing Tennessee in 2024. "I think 9-3 is well within reach. But at 8-4, I think the percentage chance that they make the 12-team playoff is about 15 percent."
McElroy made those comments after acknowledging that Tennessee added LSU transfer offensive tackle Lance Heard this week.
McElroy didn't say which games he thinks the Vols will lose (outside of Alabama and Georgia), though at 8-4 it's obvious he thinks Tennessee will lose a couple of games that they should win (the Vols should be favored in every game except the road matchup against Georgia and maybe the road matchup against Oklahoma early in the season).
The fact that McElroy has Alabama at a 70 percent chance with Nick Saban no longer in town and a first-time SEC coach in Kalen DeBoer leading the program makes it hard to take any of this seriously. Especially considering the Crimson Tide have lost a significant amount of elite talent from their roster to the NCAA transfer portal. But McElroy is a prominent voice in college football, so it's impossible to ignore the narrative he's trying to create.
Ultimately, it's just more bulletin board material for Tennessee this offseason. And we've seen that Josh Heupel-coached teams are at their best when they're being doubted.
Greg McElroy out here giving Tennessee some bulletin board material in January pic.twitter.com/1SPyHKoalD
— zach ragan (@zachtnt) January 23, 2024
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