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Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers. John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

NCAAF betting: Turn Week 2 lessons into Week 3 wins

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 9/11/23

Week 2 of the College Football season saw Alabama lose at home. That in itself makes it a bit of a wild week, although the rest of the results were not really all that interesting. While Texas was enjoying itself, their rival, the Texas A&M Aggies, were definitely not enjoying the heat down in South Florida. It simply has not been a great start for the SEC.

Here are some things that caught my eye that we can try and take advantage of.

Texas (Simple as that)

I have to admit I was not a believer in Texas, but I am not going to take anything away from their win at Alabama. Is this a lighter Bama team than we are used to, yes, but Texas is just better than them, especially at quarterback. Maybe this is one of those years where things go the Longhorns' way, something we have not seen in a while. That said they have a tricky Wyoming next week.

Betting takeaway ... I would stay away from the Longhorns who are going to be overrated off the big win.

Proof of Concept

I think I probably use that term more than I should. I know I used it with Colorado and they have covered for me a couple of times already. It's working. The same can be said about what is going with quarterback J.J. McCarthy throwing the ball at Michigan, and Utah using their physicality to win even with a backup quarterback and all of the great quarterback play throughout the PAC 12. At this stage, these are things we can just count on.

Betting takeaway ... Sometimes you have to believe your eyes. If you don't follow your gut, who will?

Same Old Iowa

The Hawkeyes won the CyHawk game, again. Yay! Nevertheless, they are still struggling offensively even though the offensive coordinator is famously motivated to crank things up a notch (and he is the coach's son). Through the first couple of games, Iowa has not scored more than 24 points. This week is their last chance to put up a splashy number before Big Ten play starts. Is that enough motivation?

Betting Takeaway ... look for a team total over this week against light Western Michigan.

SEC?

Alabama did not lose to Texas State, but losing at home was not a good look, nor was the Aggies' loss, even though it was not the road, they were favored too. While UGA still looks pretty good and Ole Miss won at Tulane, it is hard to see how anyone has closed the gap on the Dawgs. We have only another couple of weeks of nonconference games so there might be some buying opportunities fading the "best conference."

Betting takeaway ... Maybe after Georgia, there is more parity than we realize ... home underdogs?

FSU #2

They are not at the top of the polls, but there is not a team that has looked better than Florida State so far. The win over LSU was well documented, but they followed it up with another command performance, dominating Southern Miss. It was exactly the kind of thing that the elite teams do: put weaker opponents away quickly. I am not sure they shouldn't be ahead of Georgia but based on what we have seen they might be the second-best team in the country.

Betting takeaway ... there is no reason to get scared with FSU and the big numbers that are coming. They are that good.

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