-
Follow Us
On Facebook
On Flipboard
On Twitter
NCAAF betting: Turning Week 3 lessons into Week 4 wins
Coming into Week 3 we had a hunch it was going to be meh ... and that is exactly what we got. The top teams underperformed and even the upsets were kind of like, OK, we get it (we are looking at you, Tennessee). This was definitely a week that created more questions than answers which I suppose can be a good thing. The advantage we always have it to not take the bet, right?
Here are some of the things I noticed and how we might capitalize on them.
Prime Can Coach
Deion Sanders is always good for a quote but it turns out he can coach too. You can say all you want about how the Buffs should have dominated against Colorado State at home, but his confidence in his team, especially his son at quarterback is impressive and he has built a great staff. For those downplaying the sideline impact during the game, you have to regroup on Coach Prime. He might really have the stuff and he has the talent to work with.
Betting impact ... Hard to quantify in terms of real points but there is no reason to assume disadvantage due to inexperience.
SEC QBs
The quarterback situation at Alabama is getting a lot of headlines, and deservedly so. It is not much better at Georgia or Tennessee, teams that were so explosive a year ago. I know it is early, but I kind of have to wonder what is the root cause here ... it might be offensive coordinators leaving just as much as the players. Although, you do have to wonder why none of these programs were in the Sam Hartman sweepstakes. Until the QB play improves there is a lot of vulnerability for these programs and others around the country.
Betting impact ... QB play is critical to football at all levels. When you don't have it you are vulnerable. South Carolina might be a team to back this season in the SEC. They are one of a few teams really set at the position.
Big 12?
The new teams have looked pretty good (UCF, BYU, Cincinnati — sorry, Houston), and the exiting teams strong (Texas, Oklahoma), but what is left is not giving us much to believe in. Kansas State lost at Mizzou and Iowa State lost at Ohio. Baylor has been a disaster this season, too. This conference is going to sort itself out, it always does, but right now the middle is anyone's guess. Kansas is 3-0 so far this season. Are Colorado and Utah going to dominate this league?
Betting Takeaway ... This would be the one conference it might be best to stay away from. There are a lot of variables that are hard to quantify.
Is any one program really good?
USC was off this past week, but if you started at the top and went down the rankings it is not until Washington at No. 8 that you get a team that actually played well, and they got to take on a Michigan State program that is reeling right now. There definitely does not appear to be a truly elite, complete team this season. Michigan was looking like maybe it but they struggled more than expected this past week. That should make for an interesting season.
Betting takeaway ... When in doubt there is always more value with the underdog and more ML plays might be the thing, especially when these top teams connect, which they will.
Last Week of NonCon
We have gotten small tastes of conference play thus far and Ohio State and Notre Dame headline this week, but in most cases, we are getting into conference play which is generally better for bettors. Why? because we have so much more data to use at our disposal. In some instances, these programs play each other every season so we are able to look for some real context of results as we examine trends and angles. Knowledge is power and now we can apply more of it.
Betting takeaway ... the lines should get sharper but so should our convictions.
More must-reads:
Breaking News
Sign up for the Bark Bets Newsletter
Bark Bets is Yardbarker's free daily guide to the world of sports betting. You'll get:
- Picks and predictions from our in-house experts
- The last-minute updates that give you an edge
- Special offers from Sportsbooks
Subscribe now!
