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NCAAF bowls: Best bets for Saturday, Dec. 30
New Year's Day is coming. The Saturday before is a very interesting mix of teams that just missed the playoffs and those that were nowhere even close. Just another bit of evidence of why bowl season is weird.
Saturday, Dec. 30
Peach Bowl
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Noon ET
Best Bet: Rebels +3.5
I have to admit I thought Penn State would have a bit of a breakthrough this season. Maybe not past Michigan, but I thought they would get by Ohio State and that would keep them in the conversation for the playoffs all season along. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be. They were competitive in those high profile games, but it is easy to say PSU is a tier behind OSU and maybe a couple behind Big Blue.
Ole Miss had a very similar season. They also won 10 games, but when they came up against the best of the best, they struggled, losing to both Georgia and Alabama. They are perceived to be winning the portal season so there is a lot of buzz for next year, but don’t forget most of those gets are on the defensive side of the ball. When it comes to the offense, the Rebels are already pretty loaded and have not lost players due to missing the playoffs either.
Penn State might have been more competitive in their losses than Ole Miss, but I am not comfortable using that as a reason to make them a favorite over the Rebels. The Penn State offense has been inconsistent all season while the Rebels pretty much score against everybody. I would rather lean on that unit and Rebels; head coach Lane Kiffin with extra time to prepare. Especially as an underdog.
More: No. 11 Ole Miss, No. 10 PSU seek consolation in Peach Bowl
Music City Bowl
Auburn Tigers vs. Maryland Terrapins
2 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Terrapins +7
Auburn is trying to get its program back on track. They were very close to beating Alabama (which would have really kickstarted things), alas the Crimson Tide are in the College Football Playoffs and yet somehow Auburn is playing in this game, fairly late in the bowl season for a team that finished just 6-6. Other than running the ball there is not something the Tigers do particularly well.
Maryland, featuring Tua’s younger brother, threw the ball pretty well again this season. That was supposed to give them a puncher’s chance against the big boys in the Big Ten, but it didn’t. It is hard to know just what this team is right now, especially with the starting quarterback looking for greener pastures in the portal.
Maryland is a question mark due to their quarterback situation, but the Tigers are far from a sure thing which is why I am fading them here. The Terps are more than familiar with what Auburn QB Payton Thorne can do from his time at Michigan State and as long as they do not let the Tigers run wild this game feels more like a toss-up to me. There is lots of value in those seven points to play with.
More: Minus star QB, Maryland meets Auburn in Music City Bowl
Orange Bowl
Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Bulldogs
4 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Bulldogs -16.5
This game is everything wrong with the current “system.” Georgia had another strong season, their only blemish being a loss in the SEC Championship Game. I am not saying they should be in the playoffs. I am just saying they are good, though not as good as they have been when they won back-to-back national titles. Carson Beck, the quarterback appears to be sticking around too so there is continuity for the most part for the Dawgs.
Meanwhile, Florida State is looking to polish off an undefeated season. Those are rare, but not important enough to get players to stick around and actually play for them. They had already lost their starting quarterback to injury and now the backup would rather find a gig at Mississippi State or somewhere than play for FSU. That is the state of college football. The powers that be created the system and now they have to live with it. If this game was being played in September it would have been interesting. Three months later, it is a total bore.
Georgia is an overwhelming favorite and deservedly so. Even though they have some personnel losses too, I feel very confident they will be functional in all aspects. At the same time, I am not sure the Seminoles will be functional in any. In fact, I would not be surprised if this is one of the bigger bowl game blowouts. Florida State, might not get into the end zone.
Like I said before. If this is what you want college football, you got it.
More: No. 5 FSU, No. 6 Georgia aim to get past anger in Orange Bowl
Arizona Bowl
Toledo Rockets vs. Wyoming Cowboys
4:30 p.m. ET
Best Bet: Rockets +3.5
Toledo won 11 games this season, keeping head coach Jason Candle in the sights of many looking for a new coach. They lost to Miami in the MAC Championship, and their only other loss this season was at Illinois to start the year. Per usual, the offense has led the way to their success but triggerman DeQuan Finn has transferred out. This team has been really good on the road this season, 5-1 SU.
Wyoming has had a bit of a shakeup too as head coach Craig Bohl announced he will not be returning to Laramie. They have gone with continuity though, elevating an assistant. This game is a bit of a chess match with the Cowboys leaning into their defense. They were a perfect 7-0 at home, but they are not going to have that advantage for the bowl game. I like this program a lot in general, but more so when they are being underrated. That is not the case here.
Toledo has a better record and might even be the better team. That is why I am very comfortable with backing them, even though Finn has moved on. I trust Candle to be able to put together a functional offense and even though the Rockets are never elite on defense, Wyoming struggles when they have the ball and won’t have the advantage of being at home. This one looks like a field goal game either way.
More: In Craig Bohl's finale, Wyoming takes on Toledo in Arizona Bowl
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