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NCAAF futures, Baylor win totals: Can Bears flourish in 'new' Big 12?

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 6/24/23

The Big 12 is in transition, and for this year they have added their new teams (UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and BYU), and Oklahoma and Texas are still kicking around too. Overall, the league is going to be very competitive this season. Those "big" schools leaving is going to be a boon for a program like Baylor, which seems to follow rapid rises with rapid falls.

That is what we saw last year as they went from 12-2 to 6-7 in Dave Aranda's third year at the helm. His name might be a dirty word, but only Art Briles was able to sustain success in Waco. Not that long ago he won 10 plus games in three straight seasons and four out of five. This year's version of the Bears is not expected to be nearly that good.

2023 Baylor Bears Win Total

Over 7.5 +135 / Under 7.5 -165

The pricing here is telling us that Baylor is not expected to take the new Big 12 by storm. That is a majority opinion based on the competitiveness of the league and what we saw from the Bears last season. The conference is going to be a little mysterious for a couple of seasons due to realignment but with TCU off a national title game appearance and new programs coming in with relative strength, there is not a lot of belief in Baylor overperforming. I definitely agree with that sentiment.

Baylor has a tough schedule this season. It opens with three straight nonconference games of which only two are gimmes. The one that isn't is in Week 2 when they host Utah. You better have your game right when you host the Utes or they will embarrass you. When you get to the league schedule a couple of things stand out to me. First, they have to travel to UCF and Cincinnati. Those are new destinations so there is not a SOP in place, and in the case of UCF it is their first home game in the new league, so you know they are going to be fired up. The second is that they also have to go to TCU and Kansas State back to back in November. Baylor might not win a road game this season and it is tough to do anything special when that happens.

The strength of the Bears for 2023 is their running game. Running back Richard Reese scored 14 TDs as a freshman and will be featured even more this season. That is not a bad foundation, but without strong quarterback play or an elite defense, it is hard to lean on the running game against teams that are often more talented than you. Mistakes are just too magnified and last year QB Blake Shapen threw 10 interceptions. If he cleans it up the Bears might have a chance to steal a win here or there but that is probably not enough to get to that over. I do not like their chances of overperforming this season so I am with the majority opinion on the under.

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