NCAAF Futures: Who Takes the Commander in Chief Trophy in 2023?

It has been a very long time since any of the service academies — Army, Navy or Air Force — have been truly relevant in college football. Nevertheless, I have a fascination with the Commander in Chief Trophy, awarded to whoever wins the most of these very specific games on the annual schedule. 

It is almost soccer-like in terms of these games being a mini in-season competition, dispersed throughout the season. These teams are in separate conferences (or independent) so the results are somewhat meaningless in terms of everything else (except bowl eligibility). 

Let's take a quick look at the service academies and see if we can scout out some values. 

2023 Commander in Chief Trophy Odds

Air Force -125

The Falcons are an easy favorite this season. All they do is win of late, they are just sometimes an afterthought overall because they play out West and have never really been a major factor in the Mountain West. Head coach Troy Calhoun has got the Falcons to at least 10 wins in each of the last three full seasons and they looked primed to be there again. They usually toss the ball a little more than the other service academies and have been able to win with elite defense too. This season they are breaking in a new signal caller so there could be some concern there. They also have to go to Navy, getting Army at home. 

The payoff is not really worth hold on your money with this one. The value might do down though.

Navy +200

The Middies enjoyed some good times under former coach Ken Niumatalolo but he is out, replaced by Brian Newberry. With the change comes some uncertainty. The new coach said he wants to modernize the offense some, but there is a long way to go before Navy is throwing the ball more than a few times per quarter. They averaged just over 10 attempts per game last season. The challenge was more that the running game was not nearly as effective as it had been in the recent past. They still need to lean into their strengths even if a fresh voice is a smart way to go. 

The payoff is better here but I am not sure you wouldn't get better value just picking the Middies to win each game outright, rather than tying up your money.

Army +400

Head coach Jeff Monken has definitely revitalized the Army program to the point that a 6-6 record last season was actually a disappointment. Of the three service academies, they are the most committed to the ground and pound approach but since they are not in a conference it is hard to know what you are going to get from year to year in terms of their overall record. It makes sense they are third in this group but I am not sure the difference is all that great between them and Navy. 

This would be my best bet in terms of the value. I think they can beat Navy at home but visiting Air Force is going to be a real challenge. They are worth a small play even though they are the "longshot."