NCAAF Week 11: Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions betting picks, preview

Finally! Michigan has looked great this season but has not really played anyone who could push them. Penn State is going to be the first real test of just how good Big Blue really is. The Nittany Lions came up short in their game against Ohio State, but that was on the road. This one is in Happy Valley. That makes a big difference. 

Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Trends and Odds  

Odds: Michigan -4.5, Over/under 44, Michigan -198 | Penn State +164

The number tells us the Wolverines are about a touchdown better than PSU. That might be a little generous to the home side, but the markets know that the more they favor Big Blue the more they invite money on Penn State. This is in the Big Noon Kickoff slot so we might see more action early in the week as opposed to the day of. People want Michigan to lose, right?

Pick for Michigan vs. Penn State

Michigan -4.5

The cheating allegations stuff seems to be ramping up in Ann Arbor. However, unless it starts affecting who is available on Saturday, the Wolverines have many advantages to exploit. The biggest is the maturation of quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Throughout the season he has looked so very comfortable, and when a quarterback is feeling that, everything flows from there. Just like Penn State, Michigan has an elite tandem at running back but neither Blake Corum nor Donovan Edwards has posted big numbers this season. The simple fact is that Michigan has been "playing with their food" all season long, there has been no game pressure to deal with. That could change this weekend but I thought Penn State was up for their "close up" against Ohio State and their play and the game plan was uninspiring. They probably have to take more chances this week and that might not be good for them. They are not going to be overmatched; they just aren't as good. 

Right now Michigan is the leader in bets and money. With the number in the dead range, it probably goes up to -5 or -5.5 in the next few days. I think Michigan rolls so I would play it up to -6.5.