NCAAF Week 12: Washington vs. Oregon State preview, prop pick, prediction

Oregon State quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, a transfer from Clemson, is a big, strong game manager.

His counterpart, Washington's Michael Penix Jr, has been among leading Heisman Trophy contenders all season and now faces a huge test.

Penix Jr. will need help from the running game, and from the vulnerable Huskies run defense (140+ yards per game allowed).

Uiagalelei has major support from his lead rusher, Damien Martinez (more than 1,000 yards at 6.6 yards per carry), so the Beavers' home-crowd momentum could add to Washington's problems.

After five consecutive seasons of Washington victories as a double-digit favorite (as high as -37 in 2016), the past two seasons have seen Oregon State win at home 27-24 as a 2.5-point favorite and Washington win 27-21 in Seattle as a 4.5-point favorite.

The Huskies are 2-2 on the road against the spread this season and only 5-9 the past three seasons.

In those three seasons, Oregon State is 13-1 as a home favorite. That's not insignificant.

The pick: Oregon State 34, Washington 30

The bet: Parlay at -110 (DraftKings), teasing Oregon State to +3.5 with a teased over 58.5.

THE NEWS

This matchup is likely the final duel for these Pacific Northwest schools for quite some time. The rivalry has become extremely competitive.

Washington comes into Corvallis off a 35-28 win over then-No. 16 Utah, but the Huskies have not looked the part of a dominant team recently.

"We've found ways to finish games and there are always areas where we could make it a little easier on ourselves probably," Washington coach Kalen DeBoer said.

"But I think every moment is a learning moment and a growth moment, we talk about those and I can see the corrections being made."

Both teams know they must have this game to stay alive for a shot at a big postseason payday, and even the conference champ isn't guaranteed a playoff spot, simply because there are four others ahead of Washington - and they're from the Big Ten (Ohio State, Michigan), SEC (Georgia) and ACC (Florida State).

Washington ranks fifth nationally in scoring offense at 41.0 points per game and sixth in total offense at 503.9 yards per contest.

Penix Jr. has passed for 3,533 yards, 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions while running back Dillon Johnson (790 yards, 11 touchdowns on the ground) is thriving after back-to-back efforts of 256 yards against Southern California and 104 in the win over Utah.

Oregon State is coming off a 62-17 annihilation of visiting Stanford. Martinez tied the school record of four rushing touchdowns in the first half before calling it a day. He has rushed for 1,024 yards while Uiagalelei has thrown for 2,254 yards, 20 touchdowns and four interceptions.

The Beavers also have developed a rabid atmosphere at remodeled Reser Stadium. Oregon State is 16-1 at home since the start of the 2021 season.

THEY SAID IT

"Kind of where the records are, that makes it big. That's a good program (Washington). They win a lot of games. We're playing late, Game 11. You want to play in the biggest games at the end of the year. This is a big one." --Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith