Alabama and LSU once again look like the class of the SEC. (Getty)
According to the website Beyond the Bets, for the first time ever all 124 college football team win totals have been released for the 2012 season courtesy of 5Dimes. I decided to have a little fun with it and go through all six BCS conferences to give you the over/under of each team, and to let you know hypothetically which way to place your bets.
We’ll start with the Southeastern Conference.
Alabama
Over: 10 (-155)
Under: 10 (+115)
Probable Wins: vs. Michigan (Arlington, TX), vs. Western Kentucky, vs. Florida Atlantic, vs. Ole Miss, at. Missouri, at. Tennessee, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Western Carolina, vs. Auburn
Probable Losses: None
Toss-ups: at. Arkansas, at LSU
The Bet: Over
This is one I would probably stay away from. 10 is a big number, but I think Alabama can get to 11 wins this season. The one slip-up I see on the radar is the road trip to Baton Rouge in November. But, I also would not be shocked to see the Crimson Tide slip up in a tricky road contest against Arkansas in their SEC opener. The Hogs are legit.
Also, the season opener against Michigan in Dallas will be no cakewalk and road trips to Missouri and Tennessee won’t be either. If I had to, I would bet the over, but I would stay away from it if gambling was legal.
Arkansas
Over: 8.5 (-120)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
Probable Wins: vs. Jacksonville State, vs Louisiana Monroe, vs. Rutgers, at. Texas A&M, at. Auburn, vs. Kentucky, vs. Ole Miss, vs. Tulsa, vs. Mississippi State
Probable Losses: None
Toss-Ups: vs. Alabama, at South Carolina, vs. LSU
The Bet: Over
Even after Petrino-Gate, the over seems like a pretty easy bet. I would be shocked to see Arkansas lose more than three games next season. Before Bobby Petrino laid down his motorcycle, I could have easily seen it be THE year for Arkansas with the Hogs potentially winning the SEC and possibly playing for the National Championship. Even after Petrino’s dismissal and all the distractions that came with it, Arkansas is still a damn good football team.
There isn’t a single game this season that I can look at and say the Razorbacks are certain to lose. I’m pretty comfortable saying they are going to win nine games, all three of their toss-up games could easily become losses. Even playing Alabama and LSU at home, the Tide and Tigers seem to possess the better overall teams.
Their road game at South Carolina will not be easy either. I’m really high on the Gamecocks this year, and so is Steve Spurrier. A cocky Ol’ Ball Coach usually means good things for his teams. I feel pretty comfortable saying Arkansas gets to at least nine wins this season.
Auburn
Over: 7.5(+155)
Under: 7.5 (-175)
Probable Wins: vs. Louisiana Monroe, at Ole Miss, vs. Texas A&M, vs. New Mexico State, vs. Alabama A&M
Probable Losses: vs. LSU, vs. Arkansas, at Alabama
Toss-Ups: vs. Clemson (Atlanta, GA), at Mississippi State, at Vanderbilt, vs. Georgia
The Bet: Under
Auburn should be improved this year, and winning eight games would not be a surprise, but I’m not overly sold with Kiehl Frazier at quarterback and the change from a spread offense to a pro-style offense will not happen overnight.
Auburn’s schedule also doesn’t do them many favors. They do get LSU, Arkansas, and Georgia at home this season, but all three of those teams had little trouble disposing of the Tigers in 2011.
They have a neutral site game with the defending ACC Champions, Clemson, the same team that beat them by two touchdowns last season. They also have road games against Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, and neither of those games will be easy. Mississippi State should be improved, and James Franklin is making waves at Vanderbilt as the ‘Dores look to improve over their six win season in 2011.
6-6 or 7-5 seems more likely to me than 8-4. Although, there is pretty good value to be had by betting the over for the Tigers. That line surprised me.
Florida
Over: 8 (+115)
Under: 8 (-135)
Probable Wins: vs. Bowling Green, vs. Kentucky, at Vanderbilt, vs. Missouri, vs. Louisiana, vs. Jacksonville State
Probable Losses: vs. LSU
Toss-Ups: at Texas A&M, at Tennessee, vs. South Carolina, vs. Georgia, at Florida State
The Bet: Under
Florida has three gimmee out of conference games against Bowling Green, Louisiana, and Jacksonville State, but their SEC schedule is pretty tough. I have their home game against Missouri and a road matchup against Vanderbilt as probable wins, but those will not be easy games for the Gators.
Even at home, it would be a huge upset if they knocked off LSU, and their toss-ups could all potentially turn into losses. Road games against Texas A&M, Tennessee, and Florida State will be tough, along with a neutral site tilt against Georgia, and a home game against South Carolina.
I do think Florida will have a good team this year, but there is no way I would bet the over in this scenario. Take the under or push.
Georgia
Over: 9.5 (-155)
Under: 9.5 (+135)
Probable Wins: Buffalo, vs. Florida Atlantic, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Tennessee, at Kentucky, vs. Ole Miss, vs. Georgia Southern, vs. Georgia Tech
Probable Losses: None
Toss Ups: at Missouri, at South Carolina, vs. Florida, at Auburn
The Bet: Over
Taking the over seems to be a pretty easy bet with Georgia’s ridiculously easy schedule. They play Buffalo, Florida Atlantic, and Georgia Southern out of conference to go along with their annual meeting with Georgia Tech.
Even after the Isaiah Crowell mess the Bulldogs seem to be in pretty good shape with 15 returning starters on a team that won 10 games in 2011 and won the SEC’s Eastern Division crown. I do think South Carolina is the better overall team, but it’s hard to bet against the Bulldogs with this easy of a schedule. Along with the cakewalk out of conference schedule, Georgia misses Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU from the Western division for the second straight year.
Georgia’s western division foes this season will be Ole Miss and Auburn. Georgia went 10-2 last regular season facing a tougher schedule with having to play Boise State in the season opener in the Georgia Dome. Anything under 10 wins in the regular season would be a major disappointment for Mark Richt and company.
Kentucky
Over: 5.5 (+220)
Under: 4.5 (-280)
Probable Wins: vs. Kent State, vs. Western Kentucky, vs. Samford
Probable Losses: at Florida, vs. South Carolina, vs. Mississippi State, at Arkansas, vs. Georgia, at Missouri, at Tennessee
Toss Ups: at Louisville, vs. Vanderbilt
The Bet: Under
I feel pretty confident with this one. I see three wins against Kent State, Western Kentucky, and Samford, but other than that? Kentucky’s two SEC wins last year came against Ole Miss and Tennessee. Unfortunately for them, they don’t get to play the Rebels this year, and the Vols look like the East’s sleeper team. Plus that game against Tennessee is in Knoxville.
As for their two toss-ups, Louisville seems like the class of the Big East, and Vanderbilt beat Kentucky by thirty points last season in Nashville.
Betting the under here seems like easy money, but there isn’t really much value with the bet. You would have to bet $280 to win $100. Now if you wanted to bet on the Wildcats winning six games and being bowl eligible, there is room to make money, but it’s also pretty unrealistic.
LSU
Over: 10.5 (-145)
Under: 10.5 (+125)
Probable Wins: vs. North Texas, vs. Washington, vs. Idaho, at Auburn, vs. Towson, at Florida, vs. South Carolina, at Texas A&M, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Ole Miss
Probable Losses: None
Toss-Ups: vs. Alabama, at Arkansas
The Bet: Over
The one thing missing from LSU last season was steady play from the quarterback position. Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee both had their struggles, with Jefferson especially finding the going tough in the BCS Title game against Alabama. That should change this season with Georgia transfer Zach Mettenberger taking over.
Of course, Mettenberger is still vastly unproven. LSU’s defense remains hauntingly scary, and they have their four horses in the backfield. LSU’s defensive line will overpower nearly every team they play.
In my opinion, only three teams are even good enough to compete with LSU next season. That is South Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas. Two of those games are at home with their matchup with rival Arkansas being on the road. LSU seems to be the best team in the SEC if not the country, so I would be confident betting the over.
Mississippi State
Over: 7.5 (-125)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
Probable Wins: vs. Jackson State, at Troy, vs. South Alabama, at Kentucky, vs. MTSU, at Ole Miss
Probable Losses: at Alabama, at LSU, vs. Arkansas
Toss-Ups: vs. Auburn, vs. Tennessee, vs. Texas A&M
The Bet: Over
It seems to be said every preseason, but this looks like it is finally the year for Mississippi State. I thought that year would be last season, but the Bulldogs managed only a 7-6 record in Dan Mullen’s third year on the sideline.
Mississippi State is going to benefit from the luxury of playing a very easy first seven games. Their two toughests tests between the start of the season and October 20th are home games against Auburn and Tennessee. Those are both winnable contests, and it means Mississippi State could be 7-0 when they travel to Tuscaloosa on October 27th for a matchup with Alabama.
I doubt they are 7-0, but I could see 6-1, which would mean they need to win just two of their last five games to get to eight wins. Take the over, but be cautious.
Missouri
Over: 7 (-115)
Under: 7 (-105)
Probable Wins: S. E. Louisiana, vs. Arizona State, at UCF, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Kentucky, vs. Syracuse
Probable Losses: at South Carolina, vs. Alabama, at Florida
Toss-Ups: vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, at Texas A&M
The Bet: Push
Seven wins seems like the safe pick for Missouri this season in their first year in the SEC. I like the Missouri team this year, but I would like them a lot better if Henry Josey hadn’t been lost for the season with a knee injury. James Franklin is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, and he has the #1 recruit in the nation, Dorial Green-Beckham to throw the ball to.
I think six wins are nearly a given for Missouri this season, so there is no way that I would bet the under. Losses to South Carolina and Alabama are pretty much inevitable, but the game against Florida in the Swamp is far from a guaranteed loss.
At six wins, they would need to win just one of their three toss-up games, either a home game against Georgia or on the road against Tennessee or Texas A&M.
Ole Miss
Over: 5.5 (+240)
Under: 5.5 (-320)
Probable Wins: vs. Central Arkansas, at Tulane
Probable Losses: vs. Texas, at Alabama, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Auburn, at Arkansas, at Georgia, vs. Vanderbilt, at LSU, vs. Mississippi State
Toss-Ups: vs. UTEP
The Bet: Under
I’m the most comfortable with this over/under. I think Ole Miss will be better this season, which they really couldn’t get much worse, but five wins? I’d be shocked. I’m a big fan of Hugh Freeze and nobody was more impressed with what he did at Arkansas State last season than me. That being said, transforming Arkansas State to a contender in the Sun Belt and transforming Ole Miss to an SEC contender are as different as night and day.
Looking at the Rebs schedule, I see two games I am comfortable with calling wins: Central Arkansas and Tulane. They should beat UTEP at home, but that isn’t a given in my opinion. Other than those three, is anybody confident in them beating any of the following: Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, Arkansas, Georgia, Vanderbilt, LSU, or Mississippi State?
I’m sure not. Going 0-8 for a second straight year in the conference is unlikely, but even if they do scratch out one win in the SEC, that would still only give them four wins. Betting the over in this scenario would mean you are willing to bet on Ole Miss making a bowl game. Think about it…
South Carolina
Over: 8.5 (-135)
Under: 8.5 (+115)
Probable Wins: at Vanderbilt, vs. East Carolina, vs. UAB, vs. Missouri, at Kentucky, vs. Tennessee, vs. Wofford, at Clemson
Probable Losses: at LSU
Toss-Ups: vs. Georgia, at Florida, vs. Arkansas
The Bet: Over
I really love this South Carolina team. Connor Shaw showed strong progression at the end of last season, especially in their final two games against Clemson and Nebraska. Obviously, South Carolina will need Marcus Lattimore to recover from his knee injury and be the monster that he was during his freshman year.
Defensively, the Gamecocks must replace first round draft picks Melvin Ingram and Stephon Gilmore, but there is still a lot of talent on that side of the ball headlined by Jadeveon Clowney and Devin Taylor on the defensive line.
South Carolina has a tougher schedule than Georgia with their two opponents from the Western Division being LSU and Arkansas. The game at LSU is most likely a loss, but they do get both Georgia and Arkansas at home. If the Gamecocks can take care of business at home and navigate through a tricky road game in the Swamp, I think 11 wins is a possibility. In the very least, I think they go 10-2.
Tennessee
Over: 7 (-110)
Under: 7 (-110)
Probable Wins: vs. Georgia State, vs. Akron, vs Troy, vs. Kentucky
Probable Losses: at Georgia, vs. Alabama, at South Carolina
Toss-Ups: vs. NC State (Atlanta, GA), vs. Florida, at Mississippi State, vs. Missouri, at Vanderbilt
The Bet: Push
I hinted at it earlier, but I really feel like this Tennessee team is the sleeper in the East. I don’t think they are capable of winning the conference this season, but they will be very competitive in 2012, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t win seven games. The Vols will have one of the explosive offenses in the conference this season if Tyler Bray can stay healthy. Bray has all the tools to play at the next level, and he threw for 1900 yards with 17 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in seven games last season. He missed five games in the middle of the season with a broken thumb. Along with being incredibly talented, Bray has potentially the top two wide receivers in the entire conference in Da’Rick Rogers and Justin Rogers.
The Vols will have to run the ball better in 2012 if they want to compete though. They averaged just 2.8 yards per carry in 2011, which was their worst since 1964. The Vols return five starters from a Top-30 defense a year ago as new defensive coordinator Sal Sunseri takes over in Knoxville.
The Vols should win four games against Georgia State, Akron, Troy, and Kentucky without much trouble if they stay healthy, and there is room to squeeze out a few more. It’s doubtful they can beat South Carolina or Georgia on the road or Alabama even at Neyland Stadium. The Vols opener against NC State in the Georgia Dome should be a lot of fun, and their other toss-up games; home against Florida, at Mississippi State, home against Missouri, and at Vanderbilt are all winnable games.
It’s too bad this over/under is at 7 instead of 6.5. Seven wins seems like the safe bet for the Volunteers this season, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable saying they win more or less than that.
Texas A&M
Over: 7 (-110)
Under: 7 (-110)
Probable Wins: at Louisiana Tech, at SMU, vs. South Carolina State, at Ole Miss, vs. Sam Houston State
Probable Losses: vs. Arkansas, vs. LSU, at Alabama
Toss-Ups: vs. Florida, at Auburn, at Mississippi State, vs. Missouri
The Bet: Push
Texas A&M has a long way to go defensively before they become really competitive in the SEC, but they have an offense ready to compete from day one. Even with the Aggies having to replace Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, they return all five starters on their offensive line, and a running back in Christine Michael who rushed for 899 yards and 8 touchdowns last season.
Texas A&M would need seven wins to get bowl eligible this season with two scheduled games against FCS opponents in South Carolina State and Sam Houston State. They have five games I’m comfortable counting as wins, three I’m comfortable counting as losses, and then four toss-up games. They would need to go just 2-2 in those toss-ups to reach the seven win plateau.
They get Florida and Missouri at home and they play Auburn and Mississippi State on the road. Look for the Aggies to go 7-5 in year one in their new conference.
Vanderbilt
Over: 6.5 (+135)
Under: 6.5 (-165)
Probable Wins: vs. Presbyterian, vs. Massachusetts, at Ole Miss, at Wake Forest
Probable Losses: vs. South Carolina, at Georgia, at Missouri, vs. Florida
Toss-Ups: at Northwestern, vs. Auburn, at Kentucky, vs. Tennessee
The Bet: Under
James Franklin is changing the culture in Nashville, and in year one led the Commodores to a bowl game. Now with 18 returning starters, Vanderbilt looks poised to make a return trip to a bowl game in 2012.
Led by senior quarterback Jordan Rodgers and record-setting running back Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt should have more stability on offense this season. Vanderbilt went 6-6 in the regular season in 2011, but played a lot of other close games. They let games against Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, and Tennessee slip away. If they can finish those close games this season, Vanderbilt could be a team to watch this year.
Vanderbilt shouldn’t have much trouble against Presbyterian or Massachusetts, and should be able to handle Ole Miss and Wake Forest even away from home. Vanderbilt winning two of the four against Northwestern, Auburn, Kentucky, and Tennessee seems doable. Also don’t be surprised if Vanderbilt pulls off a significant upset in 2012. They were on the cusp several times in 2011.
That being said, I’m not comfortable picking Vanderbilt to win seven games. It wouldn’t surprise me at all, but another 6-6 regular season seems right for the ‘Dores in 2012.
Of course all of this is just my opinion, and since gambling isn’t legal anyway, you can’t be mad at me if I steer you in the wrong direction.
(h/t Beyond the Bets)
