Video note: This week's torrent is in a format I can't figure out how to clip, so I'm converting it to something I know works. This process is currently scheduled to complete at around 9 PM. So no video today, unfortunately. I'll add it later.
Goofy new complicated metric note: I was convinced to try out a "Rock-Paper-Scissors" metric and tried but it didn't really work because I forgot about it 80% of the time. I will try again next week. Those will be the "RPS" +/- below; the general concept is that when Michigan's coaches get owned by someone else's playcall they get a minus and vice versa; Moeaki Disaster I, when Iowa released their TE into the seam after duping Williams into a blitz, was the inspiration for this.
Personnel notes: Woolfolk moved to corner and Williams re-entered the starting lineup as a safety; Kovacs was usually the guy in the box and Woolfolk the deep guy, but sometimes they switched. Michigan's rotation on the defensive line continued, but Will Campbell replaced Renaldo Sagesse as Mike Martin's primary backup. Not sure why, because Campbell proved he was not ready.
Michigan broke out a flat, aggressive package like so:
I think this is something USC runs from time to time called "double eagle".
You can see the NT head-up on the center and the two DTs in tight against a standard ace formation. Each guy is flanked by two linebacker-type players, Michigan is in man on the outside (see Woolfolk following the receiver in motion), and they're going to slant into the backfield. Suggestions as to what to call this welcome.
On with the show:
Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O34 1 10 I-Form 4-3 under Run Zone left Mouton 1 RVB gets walled off by a double team but this was a double from a playside guy and there was no chance he was going to run through that. This allows LBs to flow to the hole unimpeded. Roh(+0.5) shoves a guy away and ends up off balance but in the hole and he delays the tailback with a missed tackle attempt. Meanwhile, it looks like Mouton has done something disastrous by heading inside of the tackle that was blocking Roh; Ezeh follows because that's his hole, and once the tailback escapes he's got a lot of green in front of him; he's thwarted by a desperate diving tackle from Mouton. Very, very fortunate. I can't minus Mouton here but I want to. O35 2 9 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Yakety Sax Warren Int Stanziball! I have no idea what the hell this was supposed to be, but it's chucked right at Warren(+1), who's not particularly near any Iowa receviers, and returned for a touchdown. Woo? Can I even cover + 1 this? I guess so. Drive Notes: Defensive touchdown, 7-0, 14 min 1st Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O43 1 10 Ace Twin TE Twins 4-3 under Run Zone right Martin 5 Note that for most of the game Michigan will run press man on the corners, something I bet they've wanted to do all year but could not. Here Martin(-0.5) gets sealed by a scoop block that gets a blocker with a great angle out on Mouton; this would be a -1 but for Martin fighting through the remaining blocker to tackle the RB as he shoots through the hole Martin ceded. O48 2 5 I-Form 4-3 under Run Zone left Ezeh 0 Michigan slanting away from the play, which sees Roh shoot inside the OT upfield, dragging the tackle out of the play and leaving a pretty big hole occupied by Michigan's ILBs, the Iowa FB, and Wegher. Ezeh(+1) gets outside of the fullback, forcing the play back into Mouton(+0.5), who tackles(+1) at the LOS with help from a good fill from Kovacs(+0.5). O48 3 5 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Hitch Warren 9 Warren is communicating something to Kovacs at the snap, which might make him flatfooted to start the play. In any case, Stanzi has plenty of time (pressure -1) to step and fire to a wide open McNutt on a simple hitch for the first (cover -1, Warren -1) M43 1 10 I-Form 4-3 under Pass Throwaway Williams Inc Iowa trying to burn Warren on a stop and go, but a blitz from Williams(+1) shoves a tailback into Stanzi, forcing him to start scrambling(pressure +1). Graham then tears through the line, knocking everyone over except Stanzi; Ezeh misses to the outside (tackling –1) and as he and Martin converge Stanzi manages to get it away. M43 2 10 Ace Twin TE 4-3 under Run Zone left Brown 7 Stross motions in to make this a 3 TE look. This play appears to be meant to go inside from the RB's initial angle; he bounces it out as Martin(+1) tears through a double and can't be sealed. Brown(-1), however, is, giving up the edge for a big gain. He's getting held like hell, but even so he should not be a yard behind the LOS and unable to get outside to contain this. Kovacs makes a good fill tackle(+1). M36 3 3 Ace(?) Empty Base 3-4 Pass Hitch -- 4 Hitch finds a little spot in the zone and picks up the first down. Immediate tackle. Question mark in the formation is because this is an empty set from under center and therefore not an "ace"—1 RB—set, but I don't know what to call it. Whatever. M32 1 10 I-Form Base 4-3 Pass PA Cross Williams Inc The first enormous bust of the night on this play action. Warren is headed forward at the snap so I assume this is a blitz with a zone behind it; Ezeh(-1), Williams(-1), and Mouton(-1) all bite like hell on the play action, opening this receiver up by yards and yards (cover -2). Possible touchdown, but a terrible throw and, eventually, an incompletion. M32 2 10 Ace 4-3 under Run Inside zone Van Bergen -2 RVB(+0.5) gets playside of his guy and Martin(+0.5) does the same, so the RB goes for a cutback, which goes directly into Graham(+1), who avoided a cut and provides a thumping TFL. M34 3 12 Ace 3-wide Base 3-4 Pass TE Short Seam Williams 34 Michigan sends the house; Williams(-3) is tasked with man coverage on Moeaki and when Moeaki looks like he's going to block he blitzes; Moeaki then passes the guy off and is wide open for a killer touchdown. (RPS -2, cover -3) Drive Notes: Touchdown, 7-7, 9 min 1st Q. Defended pretty well, one missed hold, one missed opportunity to sack, and one huge disaster where Williams blew it and Iowa smoked a playcall. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards M19 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Out Brown 3 Michigan playing a zone; Brown fakes a blitz and then drops into the flat. The blitz fake does get the slot guy open, but a quick close from Warren(+0.5) and Brown(+0.5) prevents any YAC (cover +1, tackling +1) M16 2 7 Ace Twins 4-3 under Pass TE Flat -- 5 Attacking that same area of the field; the WRs run off the corners and Stanzi uses the space to hit his TE releasing into the flat. Throw's a little off and the TE is clunky, so Michigan is able to react without much in the way of YAC. M11 3 2 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Fade Warren Inc Iowa's first attempt at the fade they'll run a lot. Warren(+1, cover +1) runs to it, watches the receiver take the ball in, and rakes it out. Drive Notes: FG(28), 7-10, 6 min 1st Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O35 1 10 I-Form 4-3 under Pass Waggle hitch Warren Inc Dude, Michigan's linebackers blow this spectacularly, too, leaving guys wide open on crossing routes; Stanzi only looks for the outside receiver and ends up turfing it. Decent coverage by Warren. Good job by Heininger(+0.5) to get outside the edge blocker, cutting off the outside and forcing an awkward throw. O35 2 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Scramble Mouton 5 Stanzi's looking for an out or a slant to the top of the screen and can't find it (cover +1). As he tries to come down to another receiver, Heininger(+1) splits two blockers and harasses him(pressure +1) into rolling out and scrambling. Mouton's got the contain and DL are charging back from inside; he blows it(-1) by clobbering himself into a blocker, allowing Stanzi outside of him and turning zero yards into five. O40 3 5 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Sack Graham -7 Slot slant is covered(+1), giving Graham(+2) time to go right around Bulaga and crush Stanzi for a sack. Martin(+1) and Roh(+1) were also bursting through, preventing any attempt to move up in the pocket (pressure +2) Drive Notes: Punt, 14-10, EO1Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards M46 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Deep slant Mouton 22 Miscommunication of some variety as Williams flies out into the flat in a zone—it's cover three with both cornerbacks laying off and Mouton(-2) also zooming out into the flat, apparently in man on the tailback, on a play where everyone else is in zone. The vacated area is huge and it's an easy throw for Stanzi to a receiver breaking wide open. (Cover -2). M24 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Out Brown Inc Trying the out that they used a lot in an attempt to exploit our lack of a third corner; Brown is in decent position and can probably tackle on the catch if there is one; there isn't because of Stanzi's inaccuracy. (Cover +1) M24 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Wheel Williams Inc Stanzi gets some momentary time on a dropback until Graham(+0.5) pushes through to get late pressure and force a back-foot throw. Stanzi pumps and looks for a wheel route that's well covered by Williams (+1, cover +1) but way underthrown. If this was Texas Tech it would be an intentional back-shoulder throw they drill all the time; IMO, this is just plain lucky. Ball is too far underthrown to be caught despite a valiant attempt by the RB. M24 3 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Slant Warren Inc Michigan again sends the house, forcing a quick throw; it's a slant that Warren(+1, cover +1) gets up on and maybe helps be incomplete. More helpful was a high and hard throw. A catch was going to be a couple yards short of the first, anyway. Drive Notes: FG(41), 14-13, 12 min 2nd Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O22 1 10 Ace Twin TE Twins 4-3 under Run Zone right Ezeh 2 Ezeh(+1) is running downhill from the snap, busting into the backfield and forcing a cutback; RVB(+0.5) has avoided a cut and flows down the line to tackle (+1). O24 2 8 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Run Draw Martin 2 This looks like it's about to open up nicely as Martin has blasted to the left of the center, leaving a big gap between himself and Graham outside the tackle. Michigan has also blitzed to the outside, leaving no support downfield until you get to Kovacs. This looks dangerous, but Martin's(+1) terrific agility allows him to come around the C and tackle(+1) the RB as he crosses the LOS. O26 3 6 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Slant & Go Warren 33 Again they're going after Warren on a double move; Warren recovers and is in great position on this but Stanzi chucks it anyway and just happens to get it in the only place it can go, allowing Stross to lay out to make a diving catch. Indefensible, a DO+ 1 from the opposition, and a (cover +1, Warren +1) from Michigan. What's more is Stanzi threw this with Williams in his face. Just one of those plays where you tip your cap. M41 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Dumpoff Mouton Inc They again go after Warren on a slant and go, this stuff is crazy. I mean, its not like Warren has been weak the last few times he's been tested. It looks like Iowa went into this game with some sort of crazy gameplan to attack Warren. RVB(+0.5) and Graham push the line back, causing Stanzi to decide to roll out once he finds no one open (cover +1). He then throws across his body to a tailback on a little dumpoff route that Mouton(+1, cover +1) breaks on and breaks up; another step and he can intercept. Stanziball. M41 2 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Run Yakety Sax -- -14 Snap over the head. O45 3 24 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Post Williams 47Aaaaargggggghghghgh. One: it's third and twenty-four, the safeties should not be ten yards deep. They should be 15-20 or whatever. Two: there's not even anyone running sort of in between on Williams(-3), who has no excuse for not giving Warren the deep safety help he expects (cover -3); this is just a huge bust.Robinson on third and twenty-five:
M8 1 G Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Run Zone right Campbell 5 Campbell(-1) in and showing why he's not playing more: he gets blown three yards off the ball and sealed by the center in a way that Martin just does not. [Editor's note: actually, Martin will get sealed like this a few times in the second half.] This opens it up, leaving the safeties to clean up. M3 2 G Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Scramble -- 2 Stanzi looking for a slant that isn't there as M drops into a zone (cover +1); no pressure(-1) , though, and Stanzi gets outside of Heininger, breaking for the endzone. Mouton and Williams stop him just short. Herbstreit is right that the reason this opens up is Williams(-1) getting irresponsible and sinking inside to run with a receiver instead of passing him off to Mouton; this should be no gain or a loss but for that. M1 3 G Goal line Goal line Run Power off tackle -- 1 Not enough penetration, so Wegher can leap in. Drive Notes: Touchdown, 14-20, 5 min 2nd Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O35 1 10 I-Form 4-3 under Pass Sack Graham -9 Graham slides inside slightly with Williams outside of him; Williams blitzes, absorbing the TE. Graham(+3) smokes the tackle to the inside—shift!—and comes up the middle to sack Stanzi before any of his receivers can break open. (Pressure +2.) O24 2 19 I-Form 4-3 under Run Zone right Graham 3 Martin(-1) gets scooped and sealed by a double, allowing Iowa OL downfield to seal Mouton. Graham(+0.5) bursts upfield to cut off the outside and makes a lunging tackle attempt at the RB that's unsuccessful, but it does slow the RB up enough for Roh(+0.5) to come from the backside and tackle as he nears the LOS. Without that contribution from the DEs this could be a big gainer. Kovacs was coming up but that was asking for a pretty good open-field tackle there. O27 3 16 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Screen Ezeh 6 Mouton(+0.5) attempts to shoot up into this when he reads it but cannot because both OL releasing downfield come together to seal him off. He's out of the play but the attention he's drawn allows Ezeh(+0.5) to come unblocked, form up, and tackle with help from RVB. (Cover +1) Drive Notes: Punt, 14-20, 2 min 2nd Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O31 1 10 I-Form 4-3 under Run Zone left Ezeh -2 Big crease opens up as Roh(-1) gets sealed inside by Bulaga but Iowa can't get anyone through the line into the linebackers, for which credit goes to RVB(+0.5). Ezeh(+1) zooms up into the hole and crushes the fullback backwards, forcing the RB back inside to Mouton(+1, tackle +1), who meets the guy in the backfield for a loss. Excellent play by both linebackers; their eagerness to get to the hole will be something Iowa exploits later. O29 2 12 I-Form Big 4-3 under Run Iso Ezeh 2 Bit of a counter here as the line slides as if it's another zone play; Ezeh(+1) takes a couple shuffle steps to the right and then reads the fullback coming backside. He charges downhill, meeting the FB at the LOS and standing him up, which allows Graham(+0.5) to come around the outside and tackle(+1). O31 3 10 Ace 4-3 under Pass Out Woolfolk 11 This is just way too easy; Iowa drags a receiver across the formation and Woolfolk goes with him, but is playing soft(-1, cover -1) and way too far off to make a tackle before the sticks. Michigan only had one deep safety on third and ten? Were they expecting another run? O42 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass RB flat Williams 9 Michigan dropping off into deep zones, and Iowa runs off the guy underneath to one side and then throws a safe little pass in the flat that beats the coverage (cover -1, RPS -1) M49 2 1 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Scramble Martin 1 Same deep zone, eight guys this time, but Stanzi will have his tailback releasing for a few but for Martin(+2, pressure +2) splitting a double team, flushing Stanzi, and tracking him down as he attempts to scramble out of the pocket. He actually hurls him forward for the first down, unfortunately. M48 1 10 Shotgun Trips 4-3 under Pass Dumpoff -- 14 Again Michigan drops very, very deep; by the time Stanzi rolls out of the pocket seven guys are ten or more yards downfield and dropping. This opens up plenty of room for Wegher's little dumpoff. (Cover -1). Roh(+0.5) was coming around the edge, forcing the throw. Drive Notes: Missed FG(53), 14-20, EOH. I think the TO on third down here is a justifiable decision, but one with low upside. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O14 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Fade Woolfolk Inc Iowa's going after Michigan's press man here, throwing a fade that Woolfolk(+1, cover +1) runs stride-for-stride with and breaks up as the ball arrives. Good play for a guy who's been playing safety all year. O14 2 10 Ace Twin TE 4-3 under Run Zone right Kovacs 19 Martin(-1) gets scooped again, which ends up catching Mouton in the wash; Ezeh's responsibility is outside and he runs out of the play. Kovacs makes a great read and comes up to tackle for what would be a 3-4 yard gain, but misses it (-1, tackling -1), opening up a big gainer. O33 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass TE Out Mouton 11 Man coverage(-1) that Mouton(-1) just gets beat on, and so badly that he can't make a tackle on the catch, turning this from five to ten. O44 1 10 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Scramble Graham 12 Backup DTs in, and they don't do well. Campbell ends up basically sitting at the LOS doing nothing. Graham(-1) is attempting to pass rush inside but gets stoned; he keeps running inside, giving up contain and allowing Stanzi plenty of room to run after he can't find anyone downfield (cover +1, pressure -2) M44 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Run Zone right Campbell 15 Campbell(-2) is single-blocked and blown four yards downfield, opening up a cavernous cutback lane when RVB flows down the line as he's supposed to. No LB help because of a blitz from Mouton; wouldn't have helped much anyway. M29 1 10 Ace Twin TE Twins 4-3 under Run Zone right Martin 6 Starting DTs back in, but Martin(-1) is again effectively scooped by Iowa. Mouton(-1) takes a cut block hard, going to the turf and getting blown out of the play; Kovacs(+1) is the last guy and makes a good open field tackle(+1). M23 2 4 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Out Brown Inc Brown(-1) appears to bust an assignment, dropping way too straight upfield to be any problem for an out route to Stross that's wide, wide open (cover -1). Stanzi's throw is errant. M23 3 4 Ace 3-wide Base 4-3 Pass Corner Brown Inc Outside receiver sort of fakes a post and then goes to the corner, which may be covered OK by Kovacs. We'll never know because Stanzi left it way, way short, so short that Brown almost intercepts it. Roh(+1) gets the credit for spinning past Bulaga and hurrying a throw that came off Stanzi's back foot (pressure +1). Drive Notes: FG(40), 14-23, 10 min 3rd Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O15 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Fade Woolfolk Inc Again going after Woolfolk in man press; Woolfolk in decent, not unbeatable position. The throw is outside and long, glancing off Stross's fingertips. O15 2 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass TE Out Martin Inc Stanzi gets quick pressure from Martin(+1, pressure +1), who zipped past the center and threatened to sack. A Williams stumble gets the TE open with some potential to turn it up for YAC but the pressured Stanzi throw is high and incomplete. O15 3 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass TE Out Warren Inc This out is going to get swallowed up for like five yards as Warren comes up in cover 2 (cover +1) but Stanzi way overthrows it, basically throwing it to Warren. Warren drops it. Drive Notes: Punt, 14-23, 8 min 3rd Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O28 1 10 Ace Twin TE 4-3 under Run Zone left Mouton 5 Michigan slanting away from the play and sending the linebackers to fill the holes that open up. Mouton(+1) gets around the releasing TE and has an opportunity to tackle but cannot because he's being extremely blatantly held, but there's no call. As result, Robinson can bounce off Mouton's one-armed tackle attempt and spin inside. Martin meets him after about three yards and a big pile of folks falls forward. O33 2 5 Ace Twin TE 4-3 under Run Zone right Martin 8 Martin(-1) scooped a third time and blown out of the hole. Mouton has to deal with a guy coming off of Martin and ends up pushed past the play; Kovacs fills and makes an okay tackle, but one that gives up some YAC. O41 1 10 Ace Twin TE 4-3 under Pass In Woolfolk 4 Think Woolfolk is playing this too soft as the timing on this is off for Iowa and McNutt's sort of waiting for the ball for a second or two. However, general policy is not to ding corners for short routes on which there's no YAC and Woolfolk does come up quickly enough to grab McNutt and spin him around. This doesn't actually tackle him but it does stop him and set him up for a Graham killshot. O45 2 6 Ace Twin TE 4-3 under Run Zone left Van Bergen 1 Van Bergen(+1) drives the LG three yards back, opening up attack lanes for Mouton and forcing the play outside, where Michigan strings it out; Ezeh(+1) also avoided a blocker who'd released straight onto him and flew upfield to help the stringing-out process, though he couldn't tackle. On this play Martin does avoid a scoop and helps in the backfield. O46 3 5 Shotgun empty 4-3 under Pass TE Out Kovacs 4 Brown comes free on a blitz (RPS +1, pressure +1), forcing an immediate throw. TE is open as he cuts to an out but Kovacs(+1, cover +1, tackle +1) reads it and is there to tackle as soon as the ball arrives, preventing the extra yard that makes this a conversion. Drive Notes: Punt, 21-23, 1 min 3rd Q. Mathews fumbles the punt and the D has to go right back on the field. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards M16 1 10 Ace Twin TE Twins 4-3 under Pass Waggle TE Cross Brown 10 Brown(-1) gets beat in man-to-man by Moeaki, and there's no contain at Mouton(-1) gets sucked inside by the playfake, leaving Stanzi plenty of time to survey and find the open guy. (Pressure -1, cover -1) M6 1 G Ace Twins Double Eagle? Pass Rollout out Herron Inc Herron(-1) gets a free run at Stanzi (RPS +1), who's rolling out directly at him, and whiffs on a tackle(-1, pressure +1). This isn't even PA so it seems like either an Iowa bust, possibly because Michigan went with an unusual formation. Stanzi does get almost tackled by Herron and then another DL is closing in so he must throw, but it's to a guy standing OOB. M6 2 G Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass RB flat Ezeh 3 A little play in the flat that seems designed to exploit the same coverage deficiencies as Michigan experienced on the last drive of the half. Ezeh(+1) gets out on this, tackling as the ball arrives and holding it down about as well as anyone can expect. (Tackling +1, cover +1.) M3 3 G Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Run Zone right Van Bergen 1 RVB(+1) blows into the RG, shoving him back a couple yards and forcing the tailback inside of him, where Martin(+0.5 ) has disengaged from a double. Wegher ducks/spins under Martin, at which point three players converge to stop him. M2 4 G Goal line Goal line Pass PA TE corner Brown Inc Really selling out here to dupe Michigan, as Stanzi is given one and only one option; everyone else stays in to sell the run fake. Brown(+2) does not bite and gets out on the tight end, nearly intercepting. (Cover +1). Ezeh(+1) read the play and shot out on Stanzi, as well; he had a pulling tackle coming around to provide a run option that Ezeh erased. Drive Notes: Turnover on downs, 21-23, 14 min 4th Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards M42 1 10 Ace Twin TE 4-3 under Pass PA TE Cross EVERYONE 42 Well.... I don't know. Both ILBs and Kovacs freak out about the run fake as Williams pulls up to the line, leaving both tight ends wide, wide open. If Stanzi didn't throw it to Moeaki the other guy had a TD, too. Mouton -2, Ezeh -2, Brown -2, Kovacs -2, Cover -6. Drive Notes: Touchdown, 21-30, 12 min 4th Q. You know, if we didn't do this twice a game this would be a good defense. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards O24 1 10 Ace Twins 4-3 under Pass Rollout out Woolfolk 4 Kind of a weird way to start here but ok. Stross is slightly in front of Woolfolk and is escorted OOB immediately. O28 2 6 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Hitch Woolfolk 5 Ezeh gets through on a twisting blitz, forcing a throw (pressure +1). Woolfolk(-0.5) is playing off a bit too far to do anything about this, but a low throw prevents any YAC. O33 3 1 I-Form Big 4-3 under Run QB sneak -- 2 They get it. O35 1 10 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Run Zone left Graham 9 (Pen -10) Michigan looks misaligned, with Graham too far inside to reasonably keep contain, and indeed he gets doubled and shoved inside and this hops outside the tackles. Martin(+1) has busted into the backfield against single blocking, though, and is held all the way downfield, finally drawing the flag Iowa's avoided a few times tonight. Graham -1 for opening up the outside; this was obvious from the snap. O25 1 20 Ace 3-wide 4-3 under Run Zone counter dive Graham 15 An under-center version of the play we've run to good effect a lot; Graham(-2) attempts to go outside of the crackback TE block and ends up ceding a big hole; Ezeh(-1) ran himself out of the play anticipating a stretch and fell down when he tried to come back. O40 2 5 Ace 3-wide Double Eagle? Run Zone left Van Bergen -3 Odd-man front this time with the three DL aligned up directly over the tackles/center. RVB(+1) blasts the sliding guard into the backfield; Martin(+1) does the same with the other guard, cutting off the play in the backfield and killing it for a loss. O37 3 8 Shotgun 3-wide 4-3 under Pass Hitch Woolfolk Inc Woolfolk in the area and might have a play on the ball if it's accurately thrown; it is not and he definitely has a play on the ball because it's coming right to him. The receiver goes for it too, the two guys knock into each other, and the ball falls harmlessly to the turf. Em... (+1, cover +1) Drive Notes: Punt, 21-30, 7 min 4th Q. Ln Dn Ds O Form D Form Type Play Player Yards M45 1 10 I-Form Big 4-3 under Run Inside zone Roh 2 Roh(+1) slants inside, bursting into the intended path of the runner and forcing a cutback. That cutback threatens to zip past Graham, crashing inside, and Woolfolk, blitzing form the outside, when Roh(+1 again) makes a diving shoestring tackle. Yeeek. (Tackling +1) M43 2 8 I-Form Big 4-3 under Pass Scramble Graham 4 They run a waggle that Graham(+1, pressure +1) gets out on by crushing the tight end back. He can't make a tackle and Stanzi escapes, rolling out to run after the close call. Want to minus one of Woolfolk or Williams for running the same coverage on not coming up on Stanzi but won't. M39 3 4 I-Form Big 4-3 under Run Zone left Mouton -1 ILBs, as they've been most of the game, are screaming downhill at this; both of them zip through the line and their intended blockers, with Mouton(+2) crushing Robinson in the backfield. +1 for Ezeh and tackling, as well. Drive Notes: Punt, 28-30, 2 min 4th Q.“We got beat. A guy got beat,” defensive coordinator Greg Robinson said. “A guy in the middle should have been there. We had good coverage on that play other than where somebody should have been, so I have to look back at some of that stuff. And of course, any time they convert on third down I’m disappointed. We’re not there yet to where we’re going to be consistently shutting people down on third down yet. We’re just not there.”
So… they did okay?
Yeah, they did okay. They faced 15 possessions, all of which were meaningful—though one was the time-compressed drive at the end of the first half and the last couple were more concerned with killing the clock than scoring—and gave up 23 net points. Iowa started drives at the Michigan 19 and 16 and came away with 3 points from those drives. By the Mathlete's reckoning, the day was a positive one:
An average team given Iowa's field position would have averaged 37 points given where Iowa started on the day. That's a +7 for the defense to go with a pick 6.
Of course, that pick six was decidedly unforced, as were an array of other Stanzi misthrows. Michigan was the recipient of a number of unforced errors. Not as many as Iowa was on the other side of the ball, but here we're just evaluating how the defense did against a pretty mediocre offense. They did a mediocre job.
What about that timeout?
Which timeout?
The one right before the half.
I liked it at the time but in retrospect the upside there was very low, since there were 27 seconds left and Iowa was on its 31. Even an incompletion followed by a punt leaves Michigan with 15-17 seconds and probably 40 yards to go for a long field goal attempt. And you know Michigan's not going to get a great return. About the only thing Michigan can hope for is a punt block.
Still, if you asked me to choose between that sort of error and the ones Carr made more regularly I'd go with that one. The instinct to wring another possession out of the first half is right, and usually Rodriguez is going to be calling that timeout with 1:30 or 2:00 on the clock, in which case the risk you take is more than offset by the strong possibility you'll get the ball back.
What about the other timeout?
That was on offense.
I'm asking about it now.
Fine: obviously you want that timeout a lot more than the half-yard you save by expending it but it's really hard to expect players to break years of training and not call it when the play-clock ticks down.
Anything else?
You want me to say chart—
Chart.
Dammit.
Defensive Line Player + - T Notes Graham 8.5 4 4.5 Had a couple issues on the ground and UFR is newly tough on vacating your lane when the QB scrambles out for good yardage, so those are the minuses. Still had two sacks. Heininger 1.5 - 1.5 Split a double that contained Bulaga! Patterson - - - DNP. Roh 5.5 1 4.5 Had a couple hurries, used his athleticism well from the backside on a couple runs. Herron - 1 -1 Did little except run by Stanzi once.. Martin 9 4.5 4.5 Demonstrated great agility several times and had a couple good pass rush moves but got crushed off the ball four times, too. Van Bergen 5 - 5 Very competent against a day of single blocking, which got him a lot of half points. Banks - - - Played less. Sagesse - - - Also played little. Campbell - 3 -3 At least people will stop asking about him now. TOTAL 29.5 14.5 15 NT collectively got blown off the ball six times and the rushing stats were still pretty good. Linebacker Player + - T Notes Ezeh 8.5 4 4.5 This looks like progress… now about play action? Mouton 6 9 -3 Three weeks in a row: alternates great plays with killer mistakes. Brown 3.5 5 -1.5 Some issues in coverage, took some of the hit for the second Moeaki TD. Fitzgerald - - - DNP. Leach - - - DNP. TOTAL 18 18 0 Run filling = very good. Pass defense = very bad. Secondary Player + - T Notes Warren 3.5 1 2.5 Busy day; can't blame him for either long reception. Cissoko - - - DNP. Floyd - - - DNP. Turner - - - DNP. Woolfolk 2 1.5 0.5 Major win relative to the other guys Michigan's thrown out there. Why hasn't he been a corner all year? Williams 2 8 -6 Oh. Emilien - - - DNP Kovacs 2.5&l
Original Story:
http://mgoblog.com/content/upon-furth...
