Formula One News

Home

Quizzes

Newsletter

Pictured: F1 driver Fernando Alonso of Spain Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images.

F1 odds, predictions and picks: 3 bets for Miami Grand Prix on Sunday 5/5

Originally posted on Action Network | By Cody Goggin | Last updated 5/1/24

Check out the F1 odds and Miami Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, May 5.

Following the Chinese Grand Prix two weeks ago, the F1 calendar will now turn to the F1 Miami Grand Prix on Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) for the first of three races in the U.S. this season.

The profile of this track could be similar to what we saw in China. The Miami track features one long straight that will penalize drag, but the ability to maneuver slow corners will be important as well in other sections of the track.

Here are the F1 odds for Sunday's F1 Miami Grand Prix race outright winner, as of Wednesday and via FanDuel:

Max Verstappen: -600
Sergio Perez: +1400
Charles Leclerc: +1600
Lando Norris: +2000
Carlos Sainz Jr.: +2200
Lewis Hamilton: +4500
George Russell: +4500
Oscar Piastri: +5500
Fernando Alonso: +7000
Lance Stroll: +20000
Nico Hulkenberg: +42000
Yuki Tsunoda: +42000
Alexander Albon: +42000
Valtteri Botas: +42000
Kevin Magnussen: +42000
Daniel Ricciardo: +42000
Pierre Gasly: +42000
Zhou Guanyu: +42000
Esteban Ocon: +42000
Logan Sargeant +42000

Red Bull are the rightful favorites, but McLaren and Ferrari look to be the next closest competitors. This track type should suit McLaren very well as they showed strength in China despite their issues with drag.

This effect should be lessened at Miami, which leads to a high probability of Lando Norris ending up on the podium. Unfortunately, it appears that this is already priced into the market; McLaren has much shorter odds than usual, which is one reason they're not among my F1 Miami picks below.

This will be the second sprint weekend in a row. We will see just one practice session on Friday before the sprint shootout on Friday afternoon. The sprint will then occur earlier in the day on Saturday, and then qualifying for the grand prix will follow.

With the shorter practice time and sprint component being on the schedule, could we potentially see some more variance? Let's dive into my F1 Miami Grand Prix preview with my favorite picks for the weekend.

Bet on the F1 Miami Grand Prix this weekend with our FanDuel promo code!

F1 Odds: Miami Grand Prix Picks & Predictions

Haas Fastest Speed

During a typical race, it can be hard to predict who will reach the single fastest speed, which really depends on your tire life, traffic around you, any potential damage to your car and your fuel load at that time. With the sheer amount of laps in a race, I wouldn’t typically be looking to bet a highest-speed prop.

However, DraftKings is offering a prop on which team will have the fastest speed during the sprint qualifying session. This removes many of these variables because the cars will be on mostly equal tires and fuel loads and shouldn’t have to deal with traffic potentially holding them up.

Haas currently has the fourth-best odds for the fastest speed in this session, but I’d argue that they have a legitimate argument to be the favorites in this market. The Haas is a low-drag car that does well on straightaways but maybe isn’t the best in race pace or cornering. Luckily, that won’t be an issue for this pick.

In China they were tied for the fastest speed in sprint qualifying (rain) as well as during the normal qualifying session. Williams and Aston tied with them both times with Red Bull right on their heels.

China’s long straight, though, is different from what we will see in Miami. Over the previous three races at Japan, Australia and Saudi Arabia, Haas has had the fastest speed in qualifying in two of these and they were tied with Red Bull in one, well clear of the rest of the pack.

This is a bit of a niche bet and could fail to hit if the Haas cars don’t advance far enough in qualifying, but at +550, I believe this bet to be mispriced and would love to bet on the top speed of this car.

The Picks: Sprint Shootout Qualifying – Haas Fastest Speed (+550 at DraftKings)

Yuki Tsunoda vs. Alex Albon

Williams made some progress last season, but they appear to have taken a step back in 2024. In both the grand prix and sprint in China, Alex Albon was the third slowest driver by race pace among those who finished.

On the other side, Yuki Tsunoda has had a decent start to his season despite exiting early in China.

Tsunoda was only one spot ahead of Albon in race pace in the sprint in China, but he was 12th in Japan.

I think that the Racing Bulls car is probably just better than Williams this season, especially at a track that will require performance in low-speed corners, where Williams struggles mightily.

You’re paying a heavy price to do so, but I still like backing Tsunoda at -165 to finish ahead of Albon in Sunday’s race.

The Picks: Yuki Tsunoda over Alex Albon (-165 at BetMGM)

Fernando Alonso Top 6

I wrote about how China was perfectly suited to Aston Martin’s strengths and hit Fernando Alonso over George Russell in the sprint. Unfortunately, due to poor tire strategy, I was incorrect in predicting Alonso would earn a Top 6 finish in Shanghai (he finished seventh), but he did have the fourth-best race pace in both the sprint and the grand prix.

This week I am going back to this well and again taking Alonso to score a Top 6 finish. This track should work out well for the Aston Martin, and while he won’t be challenging for a win or maybe even a podium, I think that Alonso will be well-suited to success in Miami.

I believe that Aston Martin and Mercedes will be on a similar playing field this weekend as they fight among themselves to finish in the 5-10 range.