Oregon State vs. Oregon score prediction by football expert model

Long-time rivals meet up this weekend with some history serving as the backdrop with Oregon State visiting Oregon for the last time with both schools as members of the Pac-12 before conference realignment takes place next summer. But before then, there's still plenty on the line for both teams this week.

• Oregon sits at one loss on the season and needs to win this game in order to clinch a rematch against Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game
• Ducks are No. 1 in total offense and No. 2 nationally both in passing production and scoring, with 46.5 points on average per game
• Beavers have three losses on the year, but they're by a combined eight points, including a 2-point decision against the Huskies at home last week
• OSU is 18th in scoring average and 34th in points allowed per game

What can we make of the matchup? Let's check in with the SP+ prediction model.

Oregon State vs. Oregon prediction

The simulations favor the Ducks to hold serve at home and advance to Vegas.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat Oregon State by a projected score of 36 to 25 and win the game by an expected 11.2 points.

The model gives the Ducks a strong 74 percent chance of victory outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 336-325-13 (50.8%) in its picks against the spread after going 38-26 (59.4%) last week, its best performance of the season to date.

Point spread

Oregon is a 14 point favorite against Oregon State, according to the lines at SI Sportsbook, which set the total at 62.5 points for the game.

SI lists the moneyline odds for Oregon at -550 and for OSU at +410.

If you're using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Oregon State +14 (-115)
• Ducks to win (-550)
• Bet under 62.5 (-115)

Computer prediction

Other analytic models also suggest Oregon will win the game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

The index projects that Oregon will win the game in 80.9 percent of its simulations, while Oregon State comes out ahead in the remaining 19.1 percent of sims.

By taking each team's projected scoring margin per game in account, the computer suggests that Oregon will defeat Oregon State by 10.5 points, not enough to cover the line.