USC vs. Fresno State odds, spread, lines: Week 3 college football picks, predictions

Originally posted on FanNation College Football HQ
By James Parks | Last updated 9/12/22

So far, the early returns on the USC offense are as advertised, and now the Trojans welcome Fresno State in college football's Week 3 action on Saturday.

USC is perfect through 2 games and coming off a big win at Stanford, the first in almost a decade, while Fresno State came out on the wrong end of a last-second loss against Oregon State last weekend.

What do the experts think of the matchup? Let's see how the College Football Power Index computer prediction model projects the game.

USC vs. Fresno State football odds, point spread, betting lines

Football Power Index is going with the Trojans, who have the comfortable 90.0 percent chance to defeat the Bulldogs on Saturday.

Fresno State has a 10.0 percent chance to upset Southern Cal on the road.

The oddsmakers are going with the home team, as USC comes into the game as 12.5 point favorites, according to the opening line at SI Sportsbook.

Caesars set the over/under mark at 71.5 points.

USC comes in at No. 8 in the computer's latest 131 college football rankings, a jump of 6 points from last week, and still tops in the Pac-12 projections.

Southern Cal is an estimated 15.5 points better on average than the teams on its schedule, according to the index, which predicts it will win 10.3 games this season with an outside 19.5 percent chance at making the College Football Playoff.

AP top 25 voters pushed USC up by 3 points to the No. 7 overall position in the latest Week 3 poll.

Fresno State checks in at No. 68 overall on the index with a projection to win 8.1 games on the year while being 0.1 points better than its opponents on average.

College Football Power Index

ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.