2024 Masters best bets and expert picks for Augusta National

Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 +130 (DraftKings)

By Spencer Aguiar

For almost a year, Matthew Fitzpatrick added a four-gram weight to his driver and forgot to remove it. This was a shocking mistake for someone tracking every shot for the last 15 years meticulously in his notebook, but it helps explain the erratic nature he has experienced since his RBC Heritage victory last season.

The data pretty much tells the entire story. Since removing the weight, Fitzpatrick has gained 0.91 strokes Off the Tee per event over the past six starts. That compares to losing 0.875 in the eight appearances before that change.

If you are going to give real driving returns back to one of the better short-game and difficult-course players in the world, the sky becomes the limit for not only a top-20 finish — but potentially his second major.

Byeong Hun An Top 20 +280 (BetMGM | Ties Paid in Full)

By Nick Bretwisch

Ben An was an absolute public bust last week, and consequently, I truly believe we’re getting a bit of an inflated number on one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour thus far in 2024.

An grades inside the top 15 for me in Expected Proximity from the mid-long iron yardage buckets that Augusta National Golf Club will demand for four days. Pair that with his ability to scramble and putt on firm/fast Bentgrass, and we have the makings for someone who can finish in the top 10 of this event.

The course history isn’t sexy on paper, but he’s finished T33 and missed the cut on the number in his last three goes, with his most recent appearance coming in 2020. Now he’s a significantly more well rounded golfer than he was back then, and I have this proper around +240.

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Cameron Davis Top 10 +1400 (bet365)

By Matt Gannon

Cameron Davis is an extraordinary talent who has not put it all together yet in his PGA Tour career. Any pro you ask will tell you that he is shocked that Davis has not won more on the PGA Tour.

Davis checks so many boxes in terms of course fit at Augusta National. He is extremely long off the tee but can get a little wild, which is okay here with the fairways being over 50 yards wide. He has shown that he can spike for over five strokes gained with his irons. Finally, he has an amazing short game around the greens.

Davis finished in a tie for fourth at the 2023 PGA Championship, which was a very difficult test. The course fit makes so much sense, and he is talented enough that a dart throw at 14-1 for a top 10 has value.

Russell Henley Top 10 +450 (BetMGM)

By Tony Sartori

Russell Henley’s putter is on fire, gaining strokes putting in five consecutive tournaments. Henley has made the weekend four times over that stretch while posting two top-four finishes.

One of the most underrated golfers on Tour, Henley has finished in the top 10 in six of his past 13 tournaments. We could see this success continue at Augusta, a venue where Henley tied for fourth last season.

He gained strokes in every category across the board in what was a tremendous performance, and given his recent form, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a similar result this year. Per DataGolf, Henley had his best week in terms of True Strokes Gained on Approach at +1.94 per round this past weekend at the Valero Texas Open in over two years as he also finished fourth in San Antonio.

2024 Masters Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

• Aguiar: Xander Schauffele +1800
• Bretwisch: Xander Schauffele +1800
• Gannon: Jordan Spieth +2200
• Sartori: Hideki Matsuyama +2200

Midtier Golfer to Back

• Aguiar: Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500
• Bretwisch: Ludvig Åberg +3900
• Gannon: Cameron Young +5000
• Sartori: Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500

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Best Long Shot

• Aguiar: Harris English 175-1
• Bretwisch: Byeong Hun An 150-1
• Gannon: Cameron Davis 350-1
• Sartori: Russell Henley 80-1

Biggest Bust

• Aguiar: Justin Thomas +5500
• Bretwisch: Sahith Theegala +4500
• Gannon: Brooks Koepka +1900
• Sartori: Xander Schauffele +1800

Contrarian Player To Target

• Aguiar: Rory McIlroy +1200
• Bretwisch: Justin Thomas +5500
• Gannon: Cameron Young +5000
• Sartori: Shane Lowry +4500

LIV Golf Player To Target

• Aguiar: Joaquin Niemann +2800
• Bretwisch: Adrian Meronk 200-1
• Gannon: Bryson DeChambeau +4000
• Sartori: Jon Rahm +1200

Your Betting Strategy for the 2024 Masters

Aguiar: The Masters delivers a really unique outlook from a statistical perspective when you dive into the data.

Part of that answer stems from the fact that it is the only major championship that takes place at the same track annually. It is always nice when you can pull 100 years of expected returns at a venue, with about 20 of those outcomes yielding top-notch statistical expectations after Shot Tracking was added to the equation. Not having to extrapolate expectations typically helps render predictability.

However, beyond just that factor, the subtle nuances of the course are what give us the long-term projections that become even stronger from a modeling outlook.

There are individual characteristics that I will talk a little deeper about during this week on Links + Locks Masters Tournament Preview since it is such a beautifully nuanced venue, but the core of the discussion always pushes us back into the direction of how short-game acumen helps to deliver the most robust returns.

Gannon: The beautiful thing about the Masters is that it is an extremely straightforward handicap each year. Golfers who thrive here have exceptional distance off the tee, the ability to spike with the irons and an extremely crafty short game. Course history is also a great tell of things to come as the nuance around Augusta National is extreme.

It is no surprise that the best golfer in the best form usually takes home the green jacket. Augusta National will test every facet of each golfer's game with the exception of driving accuracy because of the 50-yard fairways that are significantly more wide than an average course on Tour.

Combing all of those factors really narrows down the few golfers who have the best chance ahead of the 2024 Masters.