Golf best bets: Outright picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA Tour's Florida Swing rolls on this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill Club and Lodge, and the best players in the world are back for the fourth signature event of the 2024 season. Bay Hill, like most Florida golf courses, has a water-heavy layout that emphasizes ball striking. We're looking for players who can stay out of trouble off the tee and on approach, avoid bogeys on a difficult layout and take advantage of the four par 5s. 

With that in mind, here are the three players we're targeting in the outright market for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

Jordan Spieth (+2200 FanDuel)

Jordan Spieth is on a winless streak that dates back to the 2022 RBC Heritage, but this is a great opportunity for him to lift another trophy. 

In two career starts at Bay Hill, Spieth has finished T4 both times. He also gained strokes in all four major categories in each of those starts. The 30-year-old is a perfect fit for this course. He ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in bogey avoidance, sixth in strokes gained around the green and 12th in par-5 scoring average.

The way to attack Bay Hill is to score on the par 5s and grind out pars on the long par 4s and par 3s, and that's what Spieth does best. Our only worry is his light schedule to this point, but he's finished T6 or better in two of his three full starts this season. 

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3500 FD)

It's been an inconsistent start to the season for Matt Fitzpatrick, but that's created a solid outright price we want to jump on.

In his last five starts at Bay Hill, the Englishman has finished T14, T9, T10, T9 and solo second. Like Spieth, Fitzpatrick is a great fit for this golf course because of his short game and ability to save par from difficult spots. 

Fitzy is coming off a T21 at the Cognizant Classic in which he gained strokes in all four major categories. He struggled with his putting on the West Coast Swing, but he feels much more comfortable on Bermuda grass greens. Fitzpatrick's latest PGA Tour win came at the RBC Heritage (another similarity to Spieth), which is a strong comp course due to its Bermuda greens and windy conditions.  

Sahith Theegala (+6500 FD)

Speaking of players who have played Harbour Town Golf Links well in the past, Sahith Theegala joins the party at 65/1. The American finished T5 at the RBC Heritage last year and T14 at this tournament in just his second start at Bay Hill.

Theegala is a master putter on Bermuda greens. Four of his best six performances last season in terms of strokes gained putting came on southeast courses with Bermuda greens, and he ranked eighth in the field in putting at Bay Hill last year. The issue with Theegala is his inconsistency with the driver, but his long irons and short game are so special we'll gladly throw a dart at this price.

Just please stay away from the water, Sahith.