Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler, Tiger Woods, and biggest PGA Championship storylines

The right combination of power and accuracy off the tee is paramount. It’s a ball-strikers’ course.

Signature holes: The 351-yard par-4 13th hole island green, and the 570-yard par-5 18th, known for its “toilet bowl” green, designed to produce epic finishes.

Let’s spotlight five of the most compelling storylines heading into the second major of the year.

PGA Championship preview: Biggest storylines

5. Friendly confines for Justin Thomas (+3500)

If JT is ever going to reclaim his contender status it’s hard to imagine a more opportune setting for a confidence boost. The Louisville native is a two-time PGA championship winner (2017, 2022).

Since parting with caddie Jim “Bones” Mackay before the Masters and missing the cut, JT finished T5 at the RBC Heritage and T21 at the Wells Fargo.

Thomas has missed the cut in four of his past five major starts, with the exception being the 2023 PGA Championship. He ranks 70th in the strokes gained: off the tee in 2024, but he’s 35th in total driving and 31st in SG: total.

If he can find his irons and putter this week, maybe the home cooking will do him some good.

(His best buddy, Jordan Spieth, needs a Wanaker to complete the career grand slam, but nothing about his recent form, by his own admission, foretells that result.)

4. Tiger Woods, still prowling

Tiger Woods, on a quest to play all four majors this year, is back in action.

When we last saw the Cat, he was gutting out a record 24th straight cut at Augusta National, only to finish 60th after a rough weekend. On an encouraging note, it was the 48-year old’s first completed official event since ankle surgery last spring.

Tiger is a four-time PGA champion, winning at Valhalla in memorable (and mysterious?) fashion in 2000.

Nicklaus’ course is sneaky undulated, but nothing close to the hilly terrain of Augusta. If Tiger can make the cut, perhaps he’ll fare a bit better over this weekend. (He’s 220-1 to win a 16th major.)

3. Scottie Scheffler’s historic form

Scheffler is producing results, data, bewildered praise, and outright odds (+400) not seen in two decades.

The 27-year-old has four wins and a runner-up across his last five PGA Tour starts. He showed up to the RBC Heritage three days late after winning the Masters and comfortably won the signature event.

For the season, Scheffler ranks first in SG: total and second in SG: off the tee and first in approach.

Scheffler has skipped the last two events — both of which were won by the world no. 2. (Scheffler has been so dominant, one could credibly place an asterisk on the Wells Fargo.)

How much, if at all, did Rory close the gap over the last three weeks, as Scheffler has been home awaiting the birth of his first child?

2. Brooks Koepka (+1400) isn’t just lurking

Koepka’s form is impossible to gauge, considering the unique components (course history, schedule, stats) of the LIV tour. For good measure, though, he made sure to win in Singapore — just to put everybody on notice.

If Koepka were to win at Valhalla, he’d become the sixth player ever to own six major victories. More importantly, he’d have two more than Rory.

The PGA of America was much more generous to LIV than Augusta National — six times more generous, to be exact. Talor Gooch, Patrick Reed, Dean Burmester, Adrian Meronk, Lucas Herbert, and David Puig received special invites. 16 LIV Golf players are featured in the 154-player field.

Certainly, Jon Rahm (+1800) will be motivated to bounce-back from his disappointing jacket defense at the Masters. A win in Louisville would give the Spaniard a chance (along with Scheffler) to complete the career slam at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst in June.

1. The stage is set for Rory McIlroy (+750)

In 2014, McIlroy won at Quail Hollow en route to a thrilling one-shot victory over Phil Mickelson at Valhalla.

10 years and 23 major top-10s later, McIlroy is primed to repeat the feat.

Two weeks ago, Rory and Shane Lowry teamed up to win the Zurich Classic at New Orleans. In Charlotte, he channeled behind-the-scenes frustration into badass golf, shooting 8-under from holes 8 through 15 on Sunday to blow past Xander Schauffele (a serious factor at Valhalla, at +1600).

For the season, the 35-year-old is blowing everybody away of the tee. He ranks first in total driving, second in distance, and fourth in SG: off the tee. More than anything else, though, it was McIlroy’s putting and iron play that powered his 65 on Sunday. Can his flatstick stay hot?

“I got some confidence in New Orleans with Shane,” he said after the Wells Fargo. “My golf swing feels more comfortable than it has been. Going to a place I have won at next week, it feels like the stars are aligning.”

My pick: Ludvig Aberg (+1800) occupied this spot until Sunday afternoon at the Wells Fargo — which Aberg skipped to rest a sore knee. After all, the 25-year-old, an elite bomber, has one runner-up in his one career major start (2024 Masters), and 16 top 25s in his last 18 PGA Tour starts.

Now? it’s gotta be Rory.