The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: The Dust Begins To Settle After Encino's Lexington Win

Pedigree: City of Light - Nonna Bella (by Stay Thirsty)
Owner: Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Repole Stable (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 136

I understand handicappers being skeptical after Fierceness’s romp in the G1 Florida Derby. He had a picture-perfect trip with no adversity, and he didn’t show us anything we didn’t already know. Having said that…if Fierceness runs his “A" race, who beats him? Probably no 3-year-old in training, and that’s why I can’t be contrarian and put him lower than the top spot on this list. That doesn’t necessarily mean I’m betting him on the first Saturday in May (a borderline-reckless statement to make about ANY horse at this juncture), but he’s simply shown too much talent to be anywhere else on this list.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Fierceness is a homebred for Repole Stable, and he is the first foal to race out of the winning Stay Thirsty mare Nonna Bella. The dam is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Outwork, and Grade 2 winner Cairo Prince can also be found in the extended family.

#2: Sierra Leone

Pedigree: Gun Runner - Heavenly Love (by Malibu Moon)
Owners: Magnier, Tabor, Smith, Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing, and Brant
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Debby L. Oxley (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 155

Chad Brown might be the best trainer that has yet to win the roses, and 2024 could be the year he gets off the duck. Sierra Leone launched to the upper echelon of this list with a win in the G2 Risen Star (which has proven to be one of the classiest preps of the Derby season) and stays there after a come-from-behind victory in the G1 Blue Grass. There were some shenanigans attached, as he delayed the start by several minutes due to gate issues and lugged in when making his winning move. However, there’s no denying this is a serious racehorse, one that should be moving the right direction late in the Derby.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Sierra Leone was bred in Kentucky by Debby Oxley, out of the Grade 1-winning Malibu Moon mare Heavenly Love, who is the dam of one winner from two foals to race. Heavenly Love, who raced as a homebred for Oxley, has a page that includes Japanese champion Zenno Rob Roy, Grade 2 winner Forever Darling, and Grade 1-placed stakes winner Darling My Darling.

The Coolmore partnership secured Sierra Leone for $2.3 million at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Gainesway consigned the colt, as agent.

#3: Catching Freedom

Pedigree: Constitution - Catch My Drift (by Pioneerof the Nile)
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 125

Catching Freedom finally had a clean trip (perhaps, not coincidentally, in his first start beneath jockey Flavien Prat) in the Louisiana Derby, and he responded by coming from well behind to get the money. He did have a respectable pace to chase, but he covered the last three-sixteenths of a mile (of a 1 3/16-mile race, no less) in well under 19 seconds. That’s an internal split that hints he won’t have a problem with an additional sixteenth in Kentucky.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Catching Freedom was bred in Kentucky by WinStar Farm, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Pioneerof the Nile mare Catch My Drift. All three of Catch My Drift's foals to race are winners, also including Grade 3-placed Bishops Bay and stakes-placed Strava.

Catching Freedom sold for $575,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by Warrendale Sales, agent.

#4: Forever Young

Pedigree: Real Steel - Forever Darling (by Congrats)
Owner: Susumu Fujita
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Breeder: Northern Farm (JPN)
Kentucky Derby points: 100

Forever Young ships in after capturing both the G3 Saudi Derby and G2 UAE Derby. He’s won all five of his lifetime starts to this point, and his most recent win on the Dubai World Cup undercard at Meydan was very professional. He’s shown plenty of maturity and an ability to overcome trouble, which could come in handy in his first stateside start against 19 other young horses. No UAE Derby winner has ever won the roses, but the way Japan is breeding world-class horses, and using that race as a prep, says that’s a matter of “when,” not “if.”

#5: Honor Marie

Pedigree: Honor Code - Dame Marie (by Smart Strike)
Owners: Ribble Farms, Eiserman, Fishbein, and Fishbein
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Breeder: Royce Pullham (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 65

Honor Marie bounced back from a season-opening dud with a strong second in the Louisiana Derby. Once again, he finished just a bit behind Catching Freedom, but unlike in the Risen Star, Honor Marie had a pace to rate behind (and it may have helped that this was his second start off a layoff). We know he likes Churchill Downs, given his win in last year’s G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, and the Derby will be the third start of his form cycle. Further improvement and a clean trip would certainly put him right there when it counts.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Honor Marie was bred in Kentucky by Royce Pullham, out of the Grade 2-placed Smart Strike mare Dame Marie. He is a half-brother to Grade 2-placed Abarta. English St. Leger winner Rule of Law can be found further down the page, along with French Group 1 winner Feed the Flame and Grade 3 winner Sacred Life.

Honor Marie sold for $40,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Taylor Made Sales Agency handled the colt, as agent.

#6: Just a Touch

Pedigree: Justify - Touching Beauty (by Tapit)
Owners: Qatar Racing, Resolute Racing, and Detampel
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Don Alberto Corp. (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 75

Just a Touch clinched a spot in the Derby field with a strong second behind Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass. He got a late start, with his debut coming in late-January at Fair Grounds, but he’s since run second in a pair of Derby preps and has a pedigree that says he’ll get better with experience and distance. He wasn’t far behind Sierra Leone (and was significantly clear of the third-place finisher), so another step forward would make him a major player.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Just a Touch was bred in Kentucky by Don Alberto Corp., out of the Grade 3-winning Tapit mare Touching Beauty, who five winners from six foals to race also includes stakes-placed Corps of Discovery. Don Alberto Corp. purchased Touching Beauty at auction for $800,000, and the operation recently sold the mare privately to John Stewart, co-owner of Just a Touch.

Just at Touch sold to Scanlon Training and Sales, agent for $125,000 at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale, consigned by Brookdale Sales. The Scanlon operation then sold the colt to Fergus Galvin, agent, for $300,000 at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training.

#7: Stronghold

Pedigree: Ghostzapper - Spectator (by Jimmy Creed)
Owners: Eric and Sharon Waller
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Breeder: Eric Waller & Sharon Waller (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 125

Stronghold didn’t need much to clinch his spot in the Kentucky Derby, but he took down the lion’s share of the points in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. In doing so, he overcame a bit of traffic to edge Imagination, who had previously won the G2 San Felipe. Stronghold has yet to finish worse than second in six lifetime starts, and while it’s fair to question this year’s California contingent (especially since the most prominent barn in the state, as of now, cannot run in the race), this is a colt that’s done very little wrong.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Stronghold races as a Kentucky homebred for Eric and Sharon Waller, and he is the first foal out of the Grade 2-winning Jimmy Creed mare Spectator. Spectator, second dam Diva's Tribute, and third dam Swiss Diva were all homebreds for the Waller program.

#8: Resilience

Pedigree: Into Mischief - Meadowsweet (by Smart Strike)
Owners: Bushnell and Waldman
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Pam & Martin Wygod (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 110

Remember how I said the Risen Star was as classy a prep as we’ve seen? Well, four runners from that race are in the top eight of this list after Resilience (who ran fourth that day) took down the G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. That may not have been the classiest field we’ve seen on the road to the Derby, but Bill Mott’s horses tend to get better with experience, so it’s not a shock he seems to have Resilience peaking at the right time.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Resilience was bred in Kentucky by Pam and Martin Wygod, out of the winning Smart Strike mare Meadowsweet, also a Wygod homebred, whose two foals to race are both winners. His second dam is the multiple Grade 1 winner Tranquility Lake, putting this colt in the family of Grade 1 winners Courageous Cat and After Market, as well as UAE Group 2 winner Jalil.

#9: Dornoch

Pedigree: Good Magic - Puca (by Big Brown)
Owners: West Paces Racing, R.A. Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding, Two Eight Racing, and Pine Racing Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 75

Dornoch got his stiffest test to date in the Blue Grass. He didn’t run terribly to finish fourth, but any sort of late kick he had paled in comparison to the one we saw from Sierra Leone. He does, however, have plenty of tactical speed, as he’s shown in a pair of prior graded stakes scores going two turns. This pedigree, of course, is also proven at the Derby distance, given how full brother Mage performed last year. He drops a few spots, but I can’t penalize him too much, either.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Dornoch was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 2-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. All three of her foals to race are winners, also including Kentucky Derby winner Mage and stakes-placed Gunning. Grade 1 winner Finnegans Wake can be found further down the page.

Dornoch sold for $325,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Runnymede Farm consigned the colt, as agent.

#10: Domestic Product

Pedigree: Practical Joke - Goods And Services (by Paynter)
Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Breeder: Klaravich Stables (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 60

Domestic Product’s Tampa Bay Derby effort didn’t come back huge on speed figures, but it did impress me enough to make me think he could be a factor in Kentucky. For the second straight outing, he rallied into the teeth of a race shape that absolutely didn’t play kindly to his late-running style. This time, he overcame it to get the money. Add in that he’ll be piloted by Irad Ortiz, Jr., on the first Saturday in May, and there are at least some things to like here.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Domestic Product races as a Kentucky homebred for Klaravich Stables, out of the unraced Paynter mare Goods and Services, whose two foals to race are both winners. Grade 3 winner Cherokee Queen can be found in his extended family.

#11: Endlessly

Pedigree: Oscar Performance - Dream Fuhrever (by Langfuhr)
Owner: Amerman Racing
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Breeder: Mrs. Jerry Amerman (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 100

Endlessly was initially pointed to the G2 American Turf on the Kentucky Derby undercard. However, it appears the connections may have come down with a case of Derby Fever, as he’s still considered possible for this race (and, as such, remains on this list). That call is not without merit, as Endlessly has won five of six lifetime outings. Most recently, he won the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks in impressive fashion. That race produced 2023 Kentucky Derby runner-up Two Phil’s, so horses can come from that race and run well in the big one.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Endlessly was bred in Kentucky by Mrs. Jerry Amerman, out of the unraced Langfuhr mare Dream Fuhrever, who is the dam of two winners from five foals to race. His second dam is the French-bred Grade 3-placed stakes winner Society Dream, who is the pivot point for runners including Grade 1 winner Coffee Clique and Grade 3 winner Admission Office.

#12: Mystik Dan

Pedigree: Goldencents - Ma’am (by Colonel John)
Owners: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 46

Mystik Dan romped to a win in the G3 Southwest two back and tried stiffer company in the G1 Arkansas Derby. He salvaged third in that race behind Muth, and he did so despite experiencing trouble that may have cost him second money. It wasn’t a bad effort, to be sure, and at least we know he’ll be moving the right direction when the real running starts next month at Churchill Downs. He may, however, be at his best over a wet track, so watch the weather forecast very carefully.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Mystik Dan races as a Kentucky homebred for Gasaway, Hamby, and 4G Racing. He is the first foal to race out of the winning Colonel John mare Ma'am. He hails from the family of Grade 1 winner Siphonic.

#13: Just Steel

Pedigree: Justify - Irish Lights (by Fastnet Rock)
Owner: BC Stables
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Breeder: Summerhill Farm (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 65

Just Steel returned to this list after running second to Muth in the Arkansas Derby. The most battle-tested horse on this year’s Derby trail has already made 11 starts, banked more than $700,000, and given his legendary trainer another Kentucky Derby starter at 88 years of age. Toss his dud in the G2 Rebel, his only poor performance of this year to date, and his recent form looks considerably better.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Just Steel was bred in Kentucky by Summerhill Farm, out of the Australian Thousand Guineas-winning Fastnet Rock mare Irish Lights. All five of her foals to race are winners, also including Australian Group 2 winner Omei Sword and English stakes winner Lipizzaner.

Just Steel sold for $500,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, consigned by Eaton Sales, agent.

#14: Encino

Pedigree: Nyquist - Glittering Jewel (by Bernardini)
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brad Cox
Breeder: Godolphin (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40

Encino re-enters this list after winning Saturday’s G3 Lexington in wire-to-wire fashion. Speed has been good at Keeneland this meet, but give this one some credit, as he dug in late to fend off Grade 1-placed The Wine Steward and, after a few defections, sneak into the Kentucky Derby field. Prior to his Lexington score, Encino won the Battaglia Memorial at Turfway after sitting a bit off the pace in the early going, so we know he’s not completely one-dimensional.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Encino is a Kentucky homebred for Godolphin, and he is the first foal to race out of the winning Bernardini mare Glittering Jewel. Glittering Jewel is a half-sister to champion and Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.

#15: Track Phantom

Pedigree: Quality Road - Miss Sunset (by Into Mischief)
Owners: L and N Racing, Brewster, Caroom, and Breeze Easy
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Breeze Easy (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 70

Track Phantom emerged as a player earlier this year at Fair Grounds, where he won the G3 Lecomte and ran a close-up second in the Risen Star. However, he stretched out in the Louisiana Derby, made the lead through solid but unspectacular fractions, and could manage no better than fourth. No, there aren’t all that many front-runners above him on this list, but it’s fair to wonder if the Derby trip is just a bit further than he truly wants to go.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Track Phantom was bred in Kentucky by Breeze Easy, out of the Grade 2-winning Into Mischief mare Miss Sunset, whose two foals to race are both winners.

The colt sold for $500,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale, consigned by Taylor Made Sales Agency, agent.

#16: Catalytic

Pedigree: Catalina Cruiser - One Show Only (by Distorted Humor)
Owners: Bobo, Davies, and Isaacs
Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Breeder: Fred W. Hertrich III (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40

Catalytic entered this list after running a distant second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Give him some credit, though, as he finished 2 1/2 lengths clear of the third and fourth-place finishers (and six lengths clear of the fifth-place finisher, G3 Holy Bull winner Hades). He’s run just three times to date, and the Florida Derby was his first two-turn start. He clearly needs to improve in order to compete with the best of his crop, but at least one can say another move forward isn’t totally out of the question.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Catalytic was bred in Kentucky by Fred W. Hertrich III, out of the placed Distorted Humor mare One Show Only, who has had two winners from four foals to race. Grade 1 winner Bluegrass Cat can be found in his extended family, along with Grade 2 winners Lord of the Game and Dramedy.

Catalytic initially sold as a weanling to Machmer Hall for $70,000 at the 2021 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, consigned by Warrendale Sales, agent. He then sold to FFF for $125,000 at the following year's Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, consigned by Machmer Hall.

#17: T O Password

Pedigree: Copano Rickey - To Rachel (by King Kamehameha)
Owner: Tomoya Ozasa
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Kentucky Derby points: 40

T O Password comes from Japan, and he’ll contest the Kentucky Derby after hanging on to take the Fukuryu Stakes. He needed the wire desperately in that race, but he got it, and he does have a right to improve in what will be just his third lifetime start. If you’re curious about the pedigree, a deeper dive reveals names like Sunday Silence, Timber Country, and Kingmambo, so there’s every right for him to have some staying power.

#18: West Saratoga

Pedigree: Exaggerator - Mo Wicked (by Uncle Mo)
Owner: Harry Veruchi
Trainer: Larry Demeritte
Breeder: Two Hearts Farm II LLC (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 67

The battle-tested West Saratoga entered this list after what’s already the 10th start of his young career. That came in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he was second behind the recently-rerouted Endlessly. Prior to that, he was third behind No More Time in the Sam F. Davis, and he did win the G3 Iroquois over the Churchill Downs surface as a 2-year-old.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: West Saratoga was bred in Kentucky by Two Hearts Farm II LLC, out of the unraced Uncle Mo mare Mo Wicked, whose two foals to race are both winners. Grade 1 winner Wickedly Perfect can be found in his extended family.

West Saratoga sold to Harry Veruchi for $11,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September sale. Hidden Brook consigned the colt, as agent.

#19: Grand Mo the First

Pedigree: Uncle Mo - Lilies So Fair (by Giant’s Causeway)
Owner: Granpollo Stable
Trainer: Victor Barboza, Jr.
Breeder: John D. Gunther (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 40

New to this list, Grand Mo the First has never been worse than third in six career starts over multiple surfaces, at several wildly-different distances. After two wins on Gulfstream’s synthetic track last summer, he was third in the G3 Zuma Beach on turf at Santa Anita before running third in the Swale (going short on dirt), the Tampa Bay Derby, and the Florida Derby. Should Grand Mo the First go postward on the first Saturday in May, he’d be the first Kentucky Derby starter for the Barboza barn.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Grand Mo the First was bred in Kentucky by John D. Gunther, out of the winning Giant's Causeway mare Lilies So Fair, whose six foals to race are all winners, also including stakes-placed Palladium. Grade 1 winners Materiality, Annapolis, and Leslie's Rose can be found in his extended family, along with Grade 2 winners Eye of the Tiger and My Miss Sophia.

The colt sold to David Geofroy for $135,000 at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale, consigned by Hill 'n' Dale Sales Agency.

#20: Society Man

Pedigree: Good Magic - You Cheated (by Colonel John)
Owners: West Paces Racing, Gargan, and GMP Stables
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Breeder: SF Bloodstock (KY)
Kentucky Derby points: 50

Strange things tend to happen in the Wood Memorial, with Society Man’s runner-up performance adding to a list that includes recent shocking victories by longshots Bourbonic and Lord Miles. Society Man was 106-1 in this year’s renewal, but he ran a shocking second behind Resilience to earn 50 Kentucky Derby points. To say that effort came from nowhere wouldn’t be an understatement, as that was his first start since he broke his maiden in February.

Kentucky-Bred Pedigree: Society Man was bred in Kentucky by SF Bloodstock, out of the winning Colonel John mare You Cheated, who is the dam of one winner from two foals to race. She most recently sold to Glen Robertson for $12,000 at the 2022 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale.

Society Man sold to Oracle Bloodstock, agent, for $85,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale, consigned by Hartwell Farm.