2009 Cubs:  Pitching

The Cubs currently have 35 guys on their 40-man roster. This does not include any potential free agents (Dempster, Wood, Howry, Lieber, Fox). Howry, Lieber and Fox are gone. The Cubs will try to re-sign Dempster and Wood, but once the World Series is over, each will file for free agency and be off the 40-man roster until or if they are re-signed. The roster is comprised of 17 pitchers and 18 position players. Let's take a look at the pitching staff today. The current rotation would be Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, Marquis and Marshall. The Cubs will probably re-sign Dempster and try to trade Marquis this offseason opening the 5th spot in the rotation for Sean Marshall who has 2 seasons in a row with an ERA below 4. I don't think it's reasonable to expect Marshall to continue doing that. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) was 4.27 this year and 4.57 last year. I do think you can expect Marshall to be about league average with a little upside perhaps. The Cubs should be able to trade Marquis this winter. He's coming off 2 relatively decent seasons and he's been healthy and will give you innings, which is something a lot of teams will look for. Most importantly, he only has one year remaining on his contract. The return won't be much, but if the Cubs are intent on trading Marquis, unlike last year, he'll be of interest to more than a few teams. Even if the Cubs fail to re-sign Wood, they've got a closer in Carlos Marmol and one could even argue that spending the resources you'd have to in order to re-sign Wood might be better spent in another way. I'm not convinced of that, but it does appear that Jeff Samardzija's career is in the bullpen. I say that because nearly every report this offseason has him being a key set-up man next year. Marshall is mentioned as a possible starter, but Samardzija seems to have found his role with this team in the 7th or 8th inning. I have no idea what his career will become, but the expectations are obviously of him being a shut down reliever. As such, do the Cubs really need to spend $10 or $12 million per year for 3 or 4 years to bring Kerry Wood back? Not doing so is a risk. We don't know what Samardzija will do and his walk rate and ball/strike rate is atrocious. Then again, it's a risk signing any reliever, especially one with Wood's injury history. Were Hendry to call me and ask me to make the decisions, I'd tell him to re-sign Dempster and to offer Wood arbitration. If he takes it, it's only one year so there's no risk. Odds are he won't take and you'll end up getting 2 draft picks. I'd trade Marquis so Marshall could take his spot in the rotation. To fill Wood's absence in the bullpen, you obviously promote Marmol to closer and you give Samardzija the first opportunity nail down the 8th inning role. The Cubs only have one lefty in the pen in Cotts and he's not really a LOOGY. I'd see what Veal can do in spring training and if not him, then you go with Ceda or Guzman as the final spot. That being said, the Cubs are likely to re-sign both Wood and Dempster, which leaves Marmol in the 8th inning role unless the Cubs wanted to be creative and trade him for a key offensive player they need. That won't happen though. I do think Marquis gets traded and Marshall takes over. The Cubs will go with one lefty in the pen until the deadline. Jose Ceda will get a legitimate shot to make this team out of spring training and will probably steal the 7th inning relief role away from Samardzija at some point early in the season. Really, the pitching for this team is pretty easy to figure out. The offense has a few more holes and many more options. I'll take a look at the offense over the next couple of days as it will need to be broken down in a couple parts.