Edmund Burke said, “Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it.”
George Santayana said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
Some variation of these two quotes is repeated today in nearly every field of study. In the case of the Mets, in 2012 it is used to combat the conflicting ideas of the team’s current record and its runs scored and allowed.
One of the basic truths of the game is that a team’s record can be estimated rather reliably by examining their runs scored and runs allowed. Bill James came up with the formula, which he dubbed the Pythagorean Theorem. Let’s investigate the Mets’ actual record, along with their Pythagorean record for the past five years.
2011: 77-85 Actual, 79-83 Pythagorean
2010: 79-83 (A), 81-81 (P)
2009: 70-92 (A), 72-90 (P)
2008: 89-73 (A), 89-73 (P)
2007: 88-74 (A), 86-76 (P)
We can see that the team’s record has been accurately predicted, within two games, in each of the past five years. Of course, each ye...