Found December 03, 2012 on
Fantasy Baseball 365:
The winter meetings are certainly here and a few of the free agents have already found new homes. The Red Sox made one of the bigger winter meeting moves thus far, signing C/1B Mike Napoli to a three-year deal. How does going from Texas to Boston affect Napoli's fantasy value?
Mike Napoli - C/1B - BOS
2013 Age: 31 - Splits: Slight vs RHP
2013 Projection: 377 AB, .255/.364/.520, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 59 R, 2 SB
Notes: Nap came back down to earth to basically be the player he was before his remarkable 2012 campaign. Now in Boston, and with a huge wall in left to try and knock down, expect more of the same: power and OBP, but risk in AVG and health.
Napoli pulled about 52-percent of his balls in play last year and 59-percent of those we hit on the ground. However, when he did get a ball in the air to left field it went for a home run 52.2-percent of the time (data from FanGraphs). Looking at his hit chart from Katron.org, we see Napoli's balls in play from home games in 2012 (at Rangers Ballpark) over Fenway's dimensions.
You can see that there were several instances (orange and light blue dots) in which Napoli might have seen an out or double turn into a home run to left and center. However, you'll also notice three home runs (dark blue) that might not have gone into the stands at Fenway. While these charts are fun to look at, they really don't give us much evidence that a player will or will not perform the same going forward. What we do know is that when Napoli hits the ball in the air to left, there is over a 45-to-50-percent chance that it will become a home run (based on his average three-year HR/FB to LF). That number might increase even more playing home games in Fenway.
Unless the Red Sox sign an everyday first baseman, chances are that Napoli sees plenty of time there, ideally keeping him fresh and healthy over the course of the summer. There's upside for Napoli to get upwards of 450 at-bats -- and the home runs that would come along with them -- but no way of simply counting on it to happen.
Given that Napoli is coming off of a down season in terms of AVG and RBI, and given that he still continued to hit home runs nontheless, he should be a solid value on draft day.
Upside: .290/.390 with 30+ HRs
Downside: .220/.330 with ~20 HRs
BEST OF MAXIM
ESPN-The Boston Red Sox on Monday agreed to a three-year, $39 million contract with free-agent first baseman/catcher Mike Napoli, pending a physical, a baseball source with direct knowledge of the negotiations told ESPNDallas.com.I don't really know what to take of this signing. When looking at the stats, $13 million a year for a .270 hitter is a little bit too much, but then...
Mike Napoli is receiving a lot of praise for his decision to come to Boston for the next three years.
The catcher/first baseman signed a three-year contract with the Sox on Monday, and early reports have him slated to primarily play first base.
The Boston Globe‘s Peter Abraham applauded the signing, and ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian believes that with a couple more solid signings, the...
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) -- A person familiar with the negotiations says catcher Mike Napoli and the Boston Red Sox have agreed to a 39 million, three-year contract. The deal is subject to Napoli passing a physical, which will take place later this week, the person said Monday. The person spoke on condition of anonymity because the deal was not yet final. A 31-year-old who also...
The Red Sox may be closing in on making the first big splash of the winter meetings.
WEEI.com reports that the Red Sox are “close” to signing first baseman/catcher Mike Napoli to a three-year deal. The potential financial terms are unknown at this point.
And because the Rangers did not make Napoli a qualifying offer, the Red Sox will not lose a draft pick should they officially...
WEEI's Rob Bradford is reporting that the Red Sox are closing in on a contract with free agent C/1B Mike Napoli, believed to be for three years. Financial terms haven't yet been reported, and no one for the Red Sox (obviously) has commented.
Napoli put up an .812 OPS (and 24 homers) in an injury-plagued 2012.
If the deal is consummated, Winter Meetings will have kicked...
The Boston Red Sox shored up their offense a bit by agreeing to a three year, $39 million deal with 31-year old free agent catcher/DH/first baseman Mike Napoli.
Napoli joins a complicated Boston catching contingent that includes newly signed backup (yet, not a backup) David Ross, along with incumbent Jarrod Saltalamacchia and prospect Ryan Lavarnway (who can't catch). With...
Every morning, we compile the links of the day and dump them here... highlighting the big storyline. Because there's nothing quite as satisfying as a good morning dump.
The Mariners (who wanted to sign Napoli as a catcher), Mets, Yankees, White Sox and Dodgers, according to major league sources, are expected to be in the market for catchers. With Napoli and Ross now added to...
The Boston Red Sox and free agent Mike Napoli have agreed to a three-year contract worth $39 million, major-league sources confirmed to FOXSports.com.
Napoli, 31, brings a powerful bat to the Boston lineup, along with the flexibility to catch or play first base. He also could serve as the designated hitter on days when David Ortiz does not play.
Napoli was an All-Star and had an...
Ben Cherington figures to be a busy man this week and over the duration of the MLB offseason, as he seeks to reload a 93-loss team from a year ago.
One such way to do that is sign key free agents who not only add pop to the lineup, but also add a solid mix to the clubhouse. It’s hoped that the newest member of the Red Sox will do just that.
Mike Napoli reportedly agreed to a three...
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — The Boston Red Sox began to play catch-up by getting All-Star catcher Mike Napoli, Tampa Bay took a chance on James Loney and the New York Yankees prepared for more time minus Alex Rodriguez during a brisk Monday at baseball’s winter meetings. Soon after the Hall of Fame welcomed three new [...]
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With no baseball action to distract us from the countless rumors circling the internet, the MLB winter meetings are like the trade deadline on steroids. It’s just baseball’s best and brightest minds talking shop all day long and us baseball nerds fanatics just soak it all in. Of course, every move that is made, whether it’s major or minor, has an impact on the fantasy universe...