Originally posted on Fantasy Baseball 365  |  Last updated 12/3/12
The winter meetings are certainly here and a few of the free agents have already found new homes. The Red Sox made one of the bigger winter meeting moves thus far, signing C/1B Mike Napoli to a three-year deal. How does going from Texas to Boston affect Napoli's fantasy value? Mike Napoli - C/1B - BOS 2013 Age: 31 - Splits: Slight vs RHP 2013 Projection: 377 AB, .255/.364/.520, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 59 R, 2 SB Notes: Nap came back down to earth to basically be the player he was before his remarkable 2012 campaign. Now in Boston, and with a huge wall in left to try and knock down, expect more of the same: power and OBP, but risk in AVG and health.   Napoli pulled about 52-percent of his balls in play last year and 59-percent of those we hit on the ground. However, when he did get a ball in the air to left field it went for a home run 52.2-percent of the time (data from FanGraphs). Looking at his hit chart from Katron.org, we see Napoli's balls in play from home games in 2012 (at Rangers Ballpark) over Fenway's dimensions.     You can see that there were several instances (orange and light blue dots) in which Napoli might have seen an out or double turn into a home run to left and center. However, you'll also notice three home runs (dark blue) that might not have gone into the stands at Fenway. While these charts are fun to look at, they really don't give us much evidence that a player will or will not perform the same going forward. What we do know is that when Napoli hits the ball in the air to left, there is over a 45-to-50-percent chance that it will become a home run (based on his average three-year HR/FB to LF). That number might increase even more playing home games in Fenway.   Unless the Red Sox sign an everyday first baseman, chances are that Napoli sees plenty of time there, ideally keeping him fresh and healthy over the course of the summer. There's upside for Napoli to get upwards of 450 at-bats -- and the home runs that would come along with them -- but no way of simply counting on it to happen.   Given that Napoli is coming off of a down season in terms of AVG and RBI, and given that he still continued to hit home runs nontheless, he should be a solid value on draft day.   Upside: .290/.390 with 30+ HRs Downside: .220/.330 with ~20 HRs  
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Biggest winners and losers from NFL Week 7

John Wall warns Lonzo Ball about having target on his back

Eric Bledsoe raises suspicion with tweet

Browns select empty seat to win prize

Hue Jackson critical after DeShone Kizer stayed out late Friday

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Carson Palmer to miss eight weeks with broken arm

Mitchell Trubisky leads Bears to win despite completing just four passes

Red Sox confirm Alex Cora as new manager

Joe Thomas misses his first career snap after injuring arm

Dolphins fans cheer after Jay Cutler leaves with injury

Browns bench DeShone Kizer again, bring in Cody Kessler

MLS Decision Day: East to be a rumble while West up for grabs

Most prominent sports bans on the 5th anniversary of the Lance Armstrong ban

Sports & Politics Intersect: Cubs owner up for Heritage Foundation post

The 'Like Mike, only better' quiz

Three Up, Three Down: Dodgers finish Cubs while Astros find pain in the Bronx

The 'Some call me the Rocket, some people call me Maurice' quiz

Kyrie Irving must lead Celtics through a disaster in search for happiness

Jacoby Brissett: The forgotten up-and-comer

NFL Week 7 Predictions

The 'Can I have a quick sword with you?' quiz

College football 2017 Week 8 predictions

NFL Referee Hotline Bling: Austin Seferian-Jenkins drops a call

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Yardbarker Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.

MLS Decision Day: East to be a rumble while West up for grabs

Most prominent sports bans on the 5th anniversary of the Lance Armstrong ban

Houston Astros hold off Yankees, forcing Game 7

Sports & Politics Intersect: Cubs owner up for Heritage Foundation post

The 'Like Mike, only better' quiz

Three Up, Three Down: Dodgers finish Cubs while Astros find pain in the Bronx

The 'Some call me the Rocket, some people call me Maurice' quiz

Kyrie Irving must lead Celtics through a disaster in search for happiness

Jacoby Brissett: The forgotten up-and-comer

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker