Originally written on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 11/15/14
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Cubs / Giants / Nationals / Phillies / Rangers / Royals. Batters Milwaukee’s is not a stars-and-scrubs offense, per se. It is, however, a stars-and-something offense — owing largely to the presence, first, of left-fielder Ryan Braun and then, second, everyone else on the team, none of whom are as good as left-fielder Ryan Braun. A year after winning the NL MVP award (in 2011), Braun posted the second-highest WAR in the National League last season. Unsurprisingly, he’s projected to be quite good in 2013, as well. Elsewhere, the team is almost uniformly average. ZiPS is skeptical about Aramis Ramirez‘s capacity to approximate what was actually a career year in 2012. On the other hand, young shortstop Jean Segura‘s failure to play any better than replacement level after arriving in Milwaukee (by way of the Zack Greinke trade) doesn’t appear to entirely mar his projection for 2013. Pitchers In the event that the reader finds himself with a dearth of question marks, he (or she, certainly) might consider borrowing some from the Brewers’ rotation. What we find therein is one legitimate and established starter (in Yovani Gallardo) and then an array of decent pitchers for whom durability might be a concern. For one reason or another, none of the team’s provisional No. 2-5 starters (Marco Estrada, Mike Fiers, Chris Narveson, and Mark Rogers) is projected to throw more than 134 innings. The effects of regression alone will likely ensure that the Brewers’ bullpen doesn’t reach the depths of 2012, which saw the club’s relief corps post one of the league’s worst seasons by Win Probability Added. That said, ZiPS isn’t entirely optimistic about any one member of the projected 2013 bullpen — with the exception, at least, of closer John Axford. Bench/Prospects Despite having received low-ish marks in recent years for the overally quality of their farm system, the Brewers have managed to produce a number of high-floored prospects who would help mitigate the effects of injury, for example, at the major-league level. Scooter Gennett, Taylor Green, and Logan Schafer — none of them elite, really — are all projected to post a major-league equivalent WAR of at least 1.0. Moreover, relief acquisitions like Miguel De Los Santos (via waivers, from Texas) and Michael Olmsted (via free agency) have added low-cost depth to the bullpen. Depth Chart Here’s a rough depth chart for the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen): Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Ryan Braun R 29 LF 679 98 183 37 4 33 112 24 6 Aramis Ramirez R 35 3B 542 69 138 32 2 23 93 4 1 Rickie Weeks R 30 2B 587 77 129 26 3 22 63 11 3 Jonathan Lucroy R 27 C 460 47 115 20 3 12 63 5 1 Jean Segura R 23 SS 535 61 137 20 7 9 57 26 9 Corey Hart R 31 1B 589 78 141 30 3 27 80 6 3 Carlos Gomez R 27 CF 410 57 93 16 4 13 43 28 5 Norichika Aoki L 31 RF 634 77 166 31 5 7 55 16 6 Martin Maldonado R 26 C 416 36 88 16 0 10 46 1 3 Taylor Green L 26 3B 501 44 114 28 1 12 63 1 2 Nyjer Morgan L 32 CF 432 52 101 12 5 3 26 18 8 Sea Bass Gonzalez R 36 SS 352 37 82 19 1 11 49 1 1 Scooter Gennett L 23 2B 639 62 167 28 5 9 50 10 7 Logan Schafer L 26 CF 456 49 109 20 7 6 39 11 6 Mat Gamel L 27 1B 328 35 76 17 1 11 46 3 0 Jeff Bianchi R 26 SS 489 48 112 21 2 6 46 13 5 Caleb Gindl L 24 RF 572 56 132 28 5 13 58 6 4 Donnie Murphy R 30 2B 221 31 46 12 3 8 37 1 0 Hunter Morris L 24 1B 557 60 133 31 6 20 77 4 2 Khris Davis R 25 LF 473 50 100 22 1 15 58 6 5 Cole Garner R 28 RF 329 34 71 15 4 9 36 4 2 Hainley Statia B 27 3B 357 31 79 14 2 1 29 4 2 Sean Halton R 26 1B 513 44 114 25 2 11 63 2 2 Kentrail Davis L 25 RF 547 56 117 22 7 6 47 16 8 Hector Gomez R 25 2B 275 21 54 12 3 5 27 5 3 Corey Patterson L 33 LF 390 39 86 18 3 7 37 14 6 Josh Prince R 25 CF 473 50 97 18 2 5 31 25 12 Jay Gibbons L 36 RF 303 26 68 14 1 8 39 1 0 Erick Almonte R 35 1B 217 18 48 9 1 3 19 1 1 Blake Lalli L 30 1B 425 43 98 18 0 7 46 0 2 Rene Tosoni L 26 LF 404 39 81 18 2 8 40 4 4 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Ryan Braun 679 8.8% 16.5% .238 .323 .302 .371 .540 .387 Aramis Ramirez 542 6.6% 13.5% .214 .287 .280 .338 .494 .354 Rickie Weeks 587 10.2% 23.5% .191 .302 .252 .344 .443 .344 Jonathan Lucroy 460 7.0% 16.1% .147 .306 .274 .328 .421 .325 Jean Segura 535 5.6% 14.8% .124 .314 .278 .325 .402 .313 Corey Hart 589 7.5% 22.8% .220 .305 .265 .329 .485 .346 Carlos Gomez 410 5.4% 22.4% .169 .296 .249 .300 .418 .314 Norichika Aoki 634 6.2% 9.1% .107 .308 .288 .342 .395 .323 Martin Maldonado 416 6.3% 25.0% .123 .298 .236 .298 .359 .284 Taylor Green 501 7.6% 19.4% .145 .292 .251 .312 .396 .304 Nyjer Morgan 432 5.8% 16.9% .081 .315 .262 .321 .343 .289 Sea Bass Gonzalez 352 4.0% 19.6% .164 .282 .248 .284 .412 .296 Scooter Gennett 639 3.8% 13.9% .108 .311 .277 .306 .385 .296 Logan Schafer 456 5.7% 15.6% .124 .300 .261 .312 .385 .302 Mat Gamel 328 8.8% 25.6% .179 .325 .261 .332 .440 .329 Jeff Bianchi 489 5.5% 22.1% .095 .311 .248 .290 .343 .275 Caleb Gindl 572 7.9% 21.2% .149 .307 .254 .315 .403 .310 Donnie Murphy 221 6.8% 25.3% .211 .277 .231 .295 .442 .314 Hunter Morris 557 4.3% 23.7% .196 .300 .253 .289 .449 .315 Khris Davis 473 9.9% 27.5% .167 .314 .243 .331 .410 .322 Cole Garner 329 5.2% 28.9% .164 .307 .234 .281 .398 .291 Hainley Statia 357 7.0% 16.2% .065 .290 .242 .297 .307 .268 Sean Halton 513 6.4% 23.8% .132 .301 .243 .296 .375 .291 Kentrail Davis 547 6.8% 26.0% .108 .315 .235 .299 .343 .283 Hector Gomez 275 3.6% 28.7% .128 .277 .208 .242 .336 .246 Corey Patterson 390 4.1% 23.1% .124 .294 .236 .271 .360 .268 Josh Prince 473 7.4% 23.3% .086 .291 .227 .286 .313 .266 Jay Gibbons 303 6.9% 17.5% .145 .274 .245 .300 .390 .295 Erick Almonte 217 6.9% 21.7% .099 .298 .239 .295 .338 .281 Blake Lalli 425 6.4% 18.6% .099 .293 .249 .296 .348 .278 Rene Tosoni 404 6.9% 25.0% .124 .280 .220 .281 .344 .272 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp Ryan Braun 679 8.0 141 0 5.8 Matt Holliday Aramis Ramirez 542 6.3 120 -3 3.4 Hank Majeski Rickie Weeks 587 5.6 110 -5 2.8 Jeff Blauser Jonathan Lucroy 460 5.2 99 0 2.5 Terry Steinbach Jean Segura 535 5.1 94 -2 2.3 Royce Clayton Corey Hart 589 5.9 115 -2 2.2 Rick Reichardt Carlos Gomez 410 5.0 90 4 2.1 Tim Raines Norichika Aoki 634 5.2 98 2 1.7 Ted Uhlaender Martin Maldonado 416 3.6 76 4 1.3 Pete Beeler Taylor Green 501 4.4 89 0 1.3 Jamie D’Antona Nyjer Morgan 432 4.1 79 6 1.2 Tom Goodwin Sea Bass Gonzalez 352 4.2 84 1 1.2 Pete Suder Scooter Gennett 639 4.3 84 -3 1.1 Martin Prado Logan Schafer 456 4.4 86 0 1.0 Bubba Crosby Mat Gamel 328 5.5 105 -1 0.9 Jerry Willard Jeff Bianchi 489 3.6 69 1 0.8 Mike Champion Caleb Gindl 572 4.6 91 1 0.8 Dan Peltier Donnie Murphy 221 4.6 95 -1 0.7 Caonabo Cosme Hunter Morris 557 4.7 94 -2 0.5 Rico Brogna Khris Davis 473 4.7 98 -5 0.5 Joe Vitiello Cole Garner 329 3.9 80 -1 0.0 Sean Barker Hainley Statia 357 3.2 63 0 -0.1 Mark Germann Sean Halton 513 3.9 79 1 -0.1 Bryan Lahair Kentrail Davis 547 3.6 72 2 -0.2 Jalal Leach Hector Gomez 275 2.7 53 1 -0.2 Brian Shipp Corey Patterson 390 3.5 68 2 -0.3 Jalal Leach Josh Prince 473 3.2 61 0 -0.3 Maiko Loyola Jay Gibbons 303 4.2 84 -5 -0.3 Dann Howitt Erick Almonte 217 3.5 70 -1 -0.4 Dusty Wathan Blake Lalli 425 3.6 73 0 -0.6 Andy Barkett Rene Tosoni 404 3.2 67 -3 -0.9 Scott Seal *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Yovani Gallardo R 27 32 32 194.0 199 70 22 181 88 82 Shaun Marcum R 31 27 27 159.7 140 46 19 152 74 69 Mike Fiers R 28 24 24 134.0 124 48 17 123 62 58 Marco Estrada R 29 21 21 121.0 114 34 15 118 59 55 Wily Peralta R 24 30 29 153.3 135 90 14 151 83 78 Mark Rogers R 25 27 25 109.3 80 85 7 105 61 57 John Axford R 30 68 0 66.3 83 32 7 56 28 26 Francisco Rodriguez R 31 67 0 64.0 70 26 7 58 29 27 Michael Olmsted R 26 39 0 47.3 55 19 5 42 20 19 Chris Narveson L 31 18 15 87.0 72 33 12 92 50 47 Tom Gorzelanny L 30 51 0 65.3 67 29 8 62 32 30 Tyler Thornburg R 24 27 24 121.7 106 64 19 126 75 70 Burke Badenhop R 30 61 0 66.0 48 21 7 70 34 32 Mike Gonzalez L 35 43 0 36.0 40 16 5 33 18 17 Manny Parra L 30 60 0 58.3 57 33 5 57 31 29 Fautino De Los Santos R 27 48 0 56.0 59 30 6 55 30 28 Jairo Asencio R 29 47 0 55.3 52 27 7 54 30 28 Taylor Jungmann R 23 25 25 138.3 73 64 16 159 89 83 Zach Kroenke L 29 30 15 107.3 56 44 13 127 68 64 Tim Dillard R 29 48 0 63.0 46 24 8 69 36 34 Robert W00t3n R 27 55 0 66.7 51 29 8 70 39 36 Vinnie Chulk R 34 32 0 39.7 31 17 5 44 24 22 Jim Henderson R 30 55 0 62.0 64 39 8 59 36 34 Jesus Sanchez R 25 56 0 63.7 44 30 7 68 37 35 Chris Jakubauskas R 34 24 8 57.7 36 26 8 67 37 35 Hiram Burgos R 25 24 20 115.7 76 52 17 133 76 71 Brandon Kintzler R 28 43 0 46.3 35 18 6 52 28 26 Donovan Hand R 27 46 2 72.3 41 23 9 85 44 41 Ariel Pena R 24 25 25 125.7 110 88 18 133 83 78 Darren Byrd R 26 47 0 65.3 48 43 6 68 40 37 Santo Manzanillo R 24 31 0 35.3 27 25 6 39 26 24 Nick Bucci R 22 17 17 80.3 60 42 15 92 58 54 Josh Stinson R 25 39 20 128.0 70 79 16 149 89 83 Miguel De Los Santos L 24 24 10 65.7 67 57 12 68 49 46 Jim Hoey R 30 48 0 52.7 41 47 8 58 40 37 Arcenio Leon R 26 46 0 63.0 53 55 8 67 46 43 Brian Baker R 30 27 18 96.3 60 59 18 115 76 71 Jed Bradley L 23 19 19 99.0 45 59 18 125 81 76 Johnny Hellweg R 24 28 19 100.3 73 101 15 114 82 77 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Yovani Gallardo 194.0 833 23.9% 8.4% .294 3.80 3.57 97 91 Shaun Marcum 159.7 677 20.7% 6.8% .284 3.89 3.79 99 97 Mike Fiers 134.0 573 21.6% 8.4% .280 3.90 4.10 99 105 Marco Estrada 121.0 515 22.1% 6.6% .294 4.09 3.69 104 94 Wily Peralta 153.3 701 19.3% 12.8% .302 4.58 4.42 117 113 Mark Rogers 109.3 518 15.4% 16.4% .289 4.69 4.91 120 125 John Axford 66.3 287 28.9% 11.2% .299 3.53 3.37 90 86 Francisco Rodriguez 64.0 276 25.4% 9.4% .297 3.80 3.50 97 89 Michael Olmsted 47.3 203 27.1% 9.4% .306 3.61 3.54 92 90 Chris Narveson 87.0 386 18.7% 8.5% .299 4.86 4.37 124 112 Tom Gorzelanny 65.3 287 23.4% 10.1% .299 4.13 3.97 105 101 Tyler Thornburg 121.7 555 19.1% 11.5% .299 5.18 5.16 132 132 Burke Badenhop 66.0 289 16.6% 7.3% .300 4.36 3.88 111 99 Mike Gonzalez 36.0 157 25.5% 10.2% .295 4.25 4.01 108 102 Manny Parra 58.3 265 21.5% 12.5% .312 4.47 4.00 114 102 Fautino De Los Santos 56.0 253 23.3% 11.9% .316 4.50 3.99 115 102 Jairo Asencio 55.3 247 21.1% 10.9% .296 4.55 4.38 116 112 Taylor Jungmann 138.3 638 11.4% 10.0% .301 5.40 5.15 138 131 Zach Kroenke 107.3 493 11.4% 8.9% .305 5.37 5.00 137 127 Tim Dillard 63.0 282 16.3% 8.5% .303 4.86 4.48 124 114 Robert W00t3n 66.7 299 17.1% 9.7% .299 4.86 4.52 124 115 Vinnie Chulk 39.7 180 17.2% 9.4% .312 4.99 4.53 127 116 Jim Henderson 62.0 284 22.5% 13.7% .302 4.94 4.74 126 121 Jesus Sanchez 63.7 289 15.2% 10.4% .299 4.95 4.70 126 120 Chris Jakubauskas 57.7 266 13.5% 9.8% .306 5.46 5.11 139 130 Hiram Burgos 115.7 532 14.3% 9.8% .306 5.52 5.22 141 133 Brandon Kintzler 46.3 209 16.8% 8.6% .311 5.05 4.37 129 111 Donovan Hand 72.3 325 12.6% 7.1% .308 5.10 4.70 130 120 Ariel Pena 125.7 598 18.4% 14.7% .309 5.59 5.55 143 141 Darren Byrd 65.3 307 15.6% 14.0% .303 5.10 4.98 130 127 Santo Manzanillo 35.3 170 15.9% 14.7% .300 6.11 5.98 156 153 Nick Bucci 80.3 375 16.0% 11.2% .306 6.05 5.82 154 149 Josh Stinson 128.0 612 11.4% 12.9% .303 5.84 5.64 149 144 Miguel De Los Santos 65.7 322 20.8% 17.7% .309 6.30 6.26 161 160 Jim Hoey 52.7 263 15.6% 17.9% .305 6.32 6.30 161 161 Arcenio Leon 63.0 311 17.0% 17.7% .311 6.14 5.83 157 149 Brian Baker 96.3 463 13.0% 12.7% .303 6.63 6.27 169 160 Jed Bradley 99.0 481 9.4% 12.3% .304 6.91 6.55 176 167 Johnny Hellweg 100.3 516 14.2% 19.6% .310 6.91 6.81 176 174 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp Yovani Gallardo 194.0 9.23 3.25 1.02 110 3.9 Jack McDowell Shaun Marcum 159.7 7.89 2.59 1.07 107 3.0 Pete Harnisch Mike Fiers 134.0 8.33 3.22 1.14 107 2.5 Cal Eldred Marco Estrada 121.0 8.48 2.53 1.12 102 2.0 Chris Carpenter Wily Peralta 153.3 7.93 5.28 0.82 91 1.6 Frank Williams Mark Rogers 109.3 6.59 7.00 0.58 90 1.1 Dick Ruthven John Axford 66.3 11.27 4.34 0.95 118 1.0 Mark Clear Francisco Rodriguez 64.0 9.84 3.66 0.98 110 0.8 Todd Jones Michael Olmsted 47.3 10.47 3.62 0.95 115 0.7 Rich Garces Chris Narveson 87.0 7.45 3.41 1.24 86 0.6 Blaine Beatty Tom Gorzelanny 65.3 9.23 4.00 1.10 101 0.5 Ed Glynn Tyler Thornburg 121.7 7.84 4.73 1.41 80 0.4 Matt Kinney Burke Badenhop 66.0 6.55 2.86 0.95 95 0.3 Jay Tessmer Mike Gonzalez 36.0 10.00 4.00 1.25 98 0.2 Trever Miller Manny Parra 58.3 8.80 5.09 0.77 93 0.2 J.C. Romero Fautino De Los Santos 56.0 9.48 4.82 0.96 93 0.2 Kevin Barry Jairo Asencio 55.3 8.46 4.39 1.14 91 0.2 Mike Butcher Taylor Jungmann 138.3 4.75 4.16 1.04 77 0.1 John Johnstone Zach Kroenke 107.3 4.70 3.69 1.09 78 0.0 Jeff Musselman Tim Dillard 63.0 6.57 3.43 1.14 86 0.0 Kenny Greer Robert W00t3n 66.7 6.88 3.91 1.08 86 -0.1 Sean 9R33n Vinnie Chulk 39.7 7.03 3.85 1.13 83 -0.1 Jason Childers Jim Henderson 62.0 9.29 5.66 1.16 84 -0.1 Calvin Jones Jesus Sanchez 63.7 6.22 4.24 0.99 84 -0.1 Scott Munter Chris Jakubauskas 57.7 5.62 4.06 1.25 76 -0.1 Vladimir Nunez Hiram Burgos 115.7 5.91 4.04 1.32 75 -0.1 Chuck McGrath Brandon Kintzler 46.3 6.80 3.50 1.17 82 -0.1 John Koronka Donovan Hand 72.3 5.10 2.86 1.12 82 -0.1 Bill Fischer Ariel Pena 125.7 7.88 6.30 1.29 75 -0.2 Larry Mitchell Darren Byrd 65.3 6.62 5.93 0.83 82 -0.2 Heathcliff Slocumb Santo Manzanillo 35.3 6.88 6.37 1.53 68 -0.6 Agustin Montero Nick Bucci 80.3 6.72 4.71 1.68 69 -0.6 Chris Clemons Josh Stinson 128.0 4.92 5.55 1.13 71 -0.7 Jeff Wigdahl Miguel De Los Santos 65.7 9.18 7.81 1.64 66 -0.8 Roberto Duran Jim Hoey 52.7 7.00 8.03 1.37 66 -1.0 Marty McLeary Arcenio Leon 63.0 7.57 7.86 1.14 68 -1.0 Heathcliff Slocumb Brian Baker 96.3 5.61 5.51 1.68 63 -1.5 Giovanni Carrara Jed Bradley 99.0 4.09 5.36 1.64 60 -1.8 Josh Stewart Johnny Hellweg 100.3 6.55 9.06 1.35 60 -1.8 Ken Jones *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
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