Originally written on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 11/16/14
Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / White Sox / Yankees. Batters The Twins probably don’t have the least impressive set of offensive projections among the now-26 teams considered so far, but they probably do have the least impressive set of offensive projections for a club that also includes a player as good as Joe Mauer. Ben Revere and Denard Span, now both a part of the NL East, combined for seven-plus wins in 2013, and are projected for ca. five wins this season. Their replacements for the moment, Darin Mastroianni and Chris Parmelee — in center and right field, respectively — are projected to be worth only a fifth of that. The reader will note that Ron Gardenhire‘s actual deployment of Ryan Doumit, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau will likely be more nuanced than it’s represented in the depth-chart graphic below. The triumvirate made 48, 42, and 34 starts, respectively, at DH in 2012. Plus, Mauer made 30 starts at first base. Plus, Doumit made 56 at catcher. It’s not unreasonable to assume that they’ll be used similarly in 2013. Pitchers The author is using something similar to the rhetorical device called litotes when he suggests that the Twins pitching staff — which features just one pitcher (Glen Perkins) projected to record a park-adjusted ERA better than league average — that the Twins staff is “not spectacular.” Right-hander Vance Worley, for example — acquired from Philadelphia in exchange for Ben Revere — is a perfectly serviceable starter, but miscast as the anchor of a staff. Some cause for optimism, perhaps, is this: there will likely be competition for the Minnesota rotation. Both Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey (whom the Twins signed this offseason) are returning from Tommy John surgery — and right-hander Rich Harden is returning from his own procedure, as well. Even if none of that group have particularly optimistic projections, the sheer quantity of starting candidates will only benefit the Twins. Bench/Prospects While Mastroianni or Parmelee could surpass expectations, it’s unlikely that both will — which could create room for both/either Aaron Hicks and/or Joe Benson in the outfield. Both are capable of playing center. The quite young Oswaldo Arcia also made his way to Double-A last season, and is regarded as something better than replacement level by ZiPS. Among pitchers, another piece acquired in the Philadelphia deal, Trevor May, merits some attention. He’s had difficult with walks, but not with striking people out, which is one of the best things a pitcher can do. Depth Chart Here’s a rough depth chart for the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen): Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Joe Mauer L 30 C 555 69 144 27 2 10 67 4 3 Josh Willingham R 34 LF 509 65 107 22 1 24 77 4 1 Aaron Hicks B 23 CF 603 77 123 23 7 10 48 19 10 Justin Morneau L 32 1B 443 48 104 23 1 14 59 0 0 Brian Dozier R 26 SS 615 67 139 25 4 8 54 13 6 Chris Herrmann L 25 C 550 57 110 19 2 7 46 3 2 Jamey Carroll R 39 2B 478 52 110 15 3 1 27 8 3 Trevor Plouffe R 27 3B 530 64 116 24 3 19 56 3 5 Joe Benson R 25 CF 474 47 91 20 4 12 42 13 9 Josmil Pinto R 24 C 420 45 90 19 2 9 46 1 1 Chris Parmelee L 25 1B 590 60 131 26 3 14 63 1 2 Ryan Doumit B 32 DH 424 40 99 22 1 12 51 1 0 Oswaldo Arcia L 22 RF 509 57 119 28 5 13 59 3 5 Pedro Florimon B 26 SS 561 54 121 22 4 6 49 13 10 Eric Fryer R 27 C 301 34 59 10 2 4 24 4 1 Drew Butera R 29 C 207 17 43 11 1 2 17 0 0 Eduardo Escobar B 24 3B 503 50 113 17 5 3 37 9 5 Darin Mastroianni R 27 LF 514 58 110 16 5 3 32 34 8 Danny Santana B 22 SS 552 57 124 19 4 8 47 17 16 Tsuyoshi Nishioka B 28 2B 485 55 114 18 5 3 39 12 9 Clete Thomas L 29 CF 382 34 73 16 3 8 36 12 3 Brandon Boggs B 30 RF 434 44 78 17 3 8 37 3 5 Deibinson Romero R 26 3B 542 52 105 19 2 10 52 1 1 Jeff Clement L 29 1B 384 42 81 23 1 10 49 1 1 Wilkin Ramirez R 27 LF 474 50 99 17 4 14 47 14 8 James Beresford L 24 SS 548 51 123 15 3 0 34 5 10 Sean Burroughs L 32 1B 248 20 59 13 0 1 19 1 1 Brian Dinkelman L 29 LF 468 40 98 20 2 4 34 6 4 Ray Olmedo B 32 SS 440 42 99 16 2 1 26 6 5 Evan Bigley R 26 RF 564 52 117 25 2 8 48 3 5 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA Joe Mauer 555 12.1% 11.7% .127 .327 .299 .386 .426 .345 Josh Willingham 509 11.8% 24.2% .222 .285 .247 .350 .469 .352 Aaron Hicks 603 10.8% 24.9% .126 .301 .232 .314 .358 .295 Justin Morneau 443 9.3% 17.6% .170 .293 .265 .334 .435 .325 Brian Dozier 615 6.2% 15.4% .102 .283 .247 .298 .349 .281 Chris Herrmann 550 8.7% 21.1% .089 .275 .222 .292 .311 .269 Jamey Carroll 478 9.0% 12.1% .057 .298 .261 .331 .318 .288 Trevor Plouffe 530 7.0% 20.6% .181 .272 .241 .300 .422 .309 Joe Benson 474 7.8% 30.8% .149 .292 .213 .287 .362 .282 Josmil Pinto 420 6.0% 22.1% .129 .278 .231 .279 .360 .277 Chris Parmelee 590 9.3% 20.8% .141 .297 .249 .322 .390 .308 Ryan Doumit 424 6.6% 19.1% .155 .292 .256 .311 .411 .309 Oswaldo Arcia 509 6.3% 25.7% .165 .323 .254 .305 .419 .309 Pedro Florimon 561 6.4% 28.3% .094 .330 .237 .291 .331 .267 Eric Fryer 301 8.0% 25.6% .096 .289 .219 .291 .315 .272 Drew Butera 207 4.8% 17.9% .100 .268 .225 .270 .325 .259 Eduardo Escobar 503 4.6% 21.1% .077 .306 .243 .278 .320 .258 Darin Mastroianni 514 8.4% 20.6% .076 .301 .238 .305 .314 .281 Danny Santana 552 4.3% 21.0% .099 .294 .240 .278 .339 .262 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 485 6.6% 13.6% .083 .293 .255 .307 .338 .281 Clete Thomas 382 6.0% 31.9% .130 .289 .206 .258 .336 .261 Brandon Boggs 434 11.1% 29.7% .124 .287 .206 .299 .330 .275 Deibinson Romero 542 7.6% 24.9% .108 .273 .216 .283 .324 .269 Jeff Clement 384 6.8% 26.3% .155 .289 .229 .281 .384 .286 Wilkin Ramirez 474 5.3% 32.3% .152 .306 .223 .268 .375 .279 James Beresford 548 5.5% 15.1% .041 .288 .242 .286 .283 .248 Sean Burroughs 248 4.8% 12.5% .069 .287 .252 .291 .321 .267 Brian Dinkelman 468 6.6% 19.0% .085 .281 .230 .290 .315 .264 Ray Olmedo 440 4.3% 17.3% .056 .294 .242 .278 .298 .248 Evan Bigley 564 3.7% 27.1% .099 .290 .219 .253 .318 .247 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def WAR No.1 Comp Joe Mauer 555 6.3 125 -2 4.3 Mickey Cochrane Josh Willingham 509 5.9 125 -5 2.3 Ralph Kiner Aaron Hicks 603 3.9 86 4 1.7 Larry Whisenton Justin Morneau 443 5.3 111 1 1.6 Greg Brock Brian Dozier 615 3.7 79 -2 1.3 Brian Harris Chris Herrmann 550 3.1 68 3 1.2 Andy Skeels Jamey Carroll 478 3.9 82 2 1.2 Johnny Temple Trevor Plouffe 530 4.4 98 -7 1.1 Jeff King Joe Benson 474 3.4 79 4 0.9 James Sherrill Josmil Pinto 420 3.5 76 -3 0.8 Joe Depastino Chris Parmelee 590 4.5 97 -1 0.7 Larry Broadway Ryan Doumit 424 4.7 98 0 0.6 Dan Rohrmeier Oswaldo Arcia 509 4.5 98 -3 0.6 Daryl Sconiers Pedro Florimon 561 3.3 72 -2 0.6 Manuel Lee Eric Fryer 301 3.2 68 -1 0.5 Luis Taveras Drew Butera 207 3.1 64 2 0.4 Mike Ryan Eduardo Escobar 503 3.2 66 3 0.3 Curtis Wilkerson Darin Mastroianni 514 3.8 72 1 0.3 Andres Torres Danny Santana 552 3.0 70 -1 0.3 Chris Moritz Tsuyoshi Nishioka 485 3.6 79 -4 0.2 Melvin Dorta Clete Thomas 382 3.1 63 1 0.1 Justin Singleton Brandon Boggs 434 3.2 74 3 -0.1 Jeff Guiel Deibinson Romero 542 3.1 68 -5 -0.2 Brad Seitzer Jeff Clement 384 3.8 82 -3 -0.3 Steve Dunn Wilkin Ramirez 474 3.5 76 -2 -0.5 Nick Gorneault James Beresford 548 2.6 59 -2 -0.5 Carlos Rojas Sean Burroughs 248 3.3 70 -2 -0.5 Larry Biittner Brian Dinkelman 468 3.2 68 0 -0.6 Chip Childress Ray Olmedo 440 2.9 60 -7 -0.7 Jose Olmeda Evan Bigley 564 2.7 57 -2 -1.7 Brad Corley *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP SO BB HR H R ER Vance Worley R 25 27 26 148.3 110 50 15 162 79 74 Scott Diamond L 26 30 30 175.0 91 47 16 203 96 90 Carl Pavano R 37 20 20 124.0 64 22 15 143 70 65 Glen Perkins L 30 67 0 64.7 63 20 7 61 28 26 Brian Duensing L 30 43 15 117.3 78 34 14 130 65 61 Mike Pelfrey R 29 18 18 106.3 57 34 12 123 61 57 Trevor May R 23 26 26 136.3 129 81 19 136 82 77 Rich Harden R 31 18 17 90.3 94 39 16 92 54 50 Liam Hendriks R 24 29 29 160.0 92 53 21 184 98 92 Jared Burton R 32 44 0 42.0 35 15 5 41 20 19 Kyle Gibson R 25 16 16 81.3 53 30 11 93 50 47 Matt Capps R 29 53 0 50.0 32 11 7 54 27 25 Samuel Deduno R 29 26 17 91.7 69 62 11 95 57 53 Alex Burnett R 25 67 0 67.0 40 26 6 73 36 34 Josh Roenicke R 30 56 0 75.0 52 38 8 77 42 39 Cole DeVries R 28 27 26 140.0 79 32 22 170 90 84 Kevin Correia R 32 26 23 135.0 76 43 22 156 87 81 B.J. Hermsen R 23 25 25 144.3 64 42 20 175 93 87 Anthony Slama R 29 38 0 41.3 39 29 5 40 25 23 Bryan Augenstein R 26 27 7 64.0 43 23 8 76 41 38 Anthony Swarzak R 27 35 12 106.7 61 34 15 125 67 63 Lester Oliveros R 25 44 0 52.7 44 29 6 54 31 29 Michael Tonkin R 23 46 0 68.0 54 32 8 72 40 37 Scott Elarton R 37 22 22 91.7 37 41 12 105 61 57 Matt Maloney L 29 21 13 77.0 42 19 12 96 51 48 Tyler Robertson L 25 67 0 65.3 51 35 8 69 40 37 Luis Perdomo R 29 59 0 75.7 46 41 8 82 46 43 Casey Fien R 29 50 0 56.3 41 21 9 62 35 33 Tim Wood R 30 51 0 54.0 33 28 6 60 34 32 Caleb Thielbar L 26 32 0 48.0 32 22 7 55 31 29 P.J. Walters R 28 25 23 116.3 78 46 19 134 78 73 Esmerling Vasquez R 29 45 6 80.3 56 53 10 85 52 49 Pedro Hernandez L 24 23 18 101.3 53 32 17 126 71 66 Deolis Guerra R 24 37 4 74.3 52 36 13 85 52 49 Ryan Pressly R 24 30 17 100.0 52 57 16 120 74 69 Nick Blackburn R 31 24 23 126.7 57 40 22 165 92 86 Shairon Martis R 26 25 22 122.0 75 58 24 148 92 86 Luke French L 27 26 23 128.7 58 65 22 159 98 92 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Vance Worley 148.3 657 16.7% 7.6% .309 4.49 4.08 111 101 Scott Diamond 175.0 775 11.7% 6.1% .305 4.63 4.20 114 104 Carl Pavano 124.0 537 11.9% 4.1% .296 4.72 4.32 117 107 Glen Perkins 64.7 275 22.9% 7.3% .297 3.62 3.56 89 88 Brian Duensing 117.3 516 15.1% 6.6% .299 4.68 4.24 116 105 Mike Pelfrey 106.3 476 12.0% 7.1% .300 4.82 4.53 119 112 Trevor May 136.3 626 20.6% 12.9% .300 5.08 5.03 125 124 Rich Harden 90.3 402 23.4% 9.7% .304 4.98 4.79 123 118 Liam Hendriks 160.0 717 12.8% 7.4% .300 5.18 4.84 128 119 Jared Burton 42.0 182 19.2% 8.2% .290 4.07 4.27 101 105 Kyle Gibson 81.3 367 14.4% 8.2% .306 5.20 4.88 128 121 Matt Capps 50.0 215 14.9% 5.1% .287 4.50 4.32 111 107 Samuel Deduno 91.7 432 16.0% 14.3% .296 5.20 5.42 128 134 Alex Burnett 67.0 300 13.3% 8.7% .300 4.57 4.35 113 108 Josh Roenicke 75.0 340 15.3% 11.2% .289 4.68 4.74 116 117 Cole DeVries 140.0 622 12.7% 5.1% .308 5.40 4.95 133 122 Kevin Correia 135.0 604 12.6% 7.1% .291 5.40 5.15 133 127 B.J. Hermsen 144.3 650 9.8% 6.5% .300 5.42 5.11 134 126 Anthony Slama 41.3 193 20.2% 15.0% .297 5.01 4.97 124 123 Bryan Augenstein 64.0 291 14.8% 7.9% .319 5.34 4.58 132 113 Anthony Swarzak 106.7 479 12.7% 7.1% .301 5.32 4.79 131 118 Lester Oliveros 52.7 241 18.2% 12.0% .302 4.96 4.64 122 114 Michael Tonkin 68.0 308 17.5% 10.4% .305 4.90 4.66 121 115 Scott Elarton 91.7 421 8.8% 9.7% .288 5.60 5.64 138 139 Matt Maloney 77.0 346 12.1% 5.5% .313 5.61 4.97 139 123 Tyler Robertson 65.3 300 17.0% 11.7% .302 5.10 4.86 126 120 Luis Perdomo 75.7 350 13.1% 11.7% .296 5.11 5.08 126 125 Casey Fien 56.3 252 16.3% 8.3% .298 5.27 4.86 130 120 Tim Wood 54.0 250 13.2% 11.2% .300 5.33 4.90 132 121 Caleb Thielbar 48.0 221 14.5% 10.0% .306 5.44 5.18 134 128 P.J. Walters 116.3 529 14.7% 8.7% .303 5.65 5.27 140 130 Esmerling Vasquez 80.3 379 14.8% 14.0% .297 5.49 5.57 136 137 Pedro Hernandez 101.3 462 11.5% 6.9% .309 5.86 5.47 145 135 Deolis Guerra 74.3 344 15.1% 10.5% .303 5.93 5.66 146 140 Ryan Pressly 100.0 477 10.9% 11.9% .301 6.21 6.11 153 151 Nick Blackburn 126.7 585 9.7% 6.8% .309 6.11 5.50 151 136 Shairon Martis 122.0 572 13.1% 10.1% .305 6.34 6.10 157 151 Luke French 128.7 610 9.5% 10.7% .299 6.44 6.13 159 151 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ WAR No. 1 Comp Vance Worley 148.3 6.68 3.03 0.91 91 1.5 George Stablein Scott Diamond 175.0 4.68 2.42 0.82 88 1.5 Greg Hibbard Carl Pavano 124.0 4.65 1.60 1.09 87 0.9 Dick Donovan Glen Perkins 64.7 8.76 2.78 0.97 113 0.8 Dan Plesac Brian Duensing 117.3 5.98 2.61 1.07 87 0.7 Ray Fontenot Mike Pelfrey 106.3 4.83 2.88 1.02 85 0.7 Heath Totten Trevor May 136.3 8.52 5.35 1.25 80 0.4 Paul Abbott Rich Harden 90.3 9.37 3.89 1.59 82 0.4 Jeff Juden Liam Hendriks 160.0 5.18 2.98 1.18 79 0.3 Tim Drew Jared Burton 42.0 7.50 3.21 1.07 100 0.3 Mark Wohlers Kyle Gibson 81.3 5.87 3.32 1.22 79 0.1 Jon Ratliff Matt Capps 50.0 5.76 1.98 1.26 91 0.1 Scott Winchester Samuel Deduno 91.7 6.77 6.09 1.08 79 0.1 Anastacio Martinez Alex Burnett 67.0 5.37 3.49 0.81 89 0.1 Jeremy Wedel Josh Roenicke 75.0 6.24 4.56 0.96 87 0.0 Tony Fiore Cole DeVries 140.0 5.08 2.06 1.41 76 -0.1 Josh Towers Kevin Correia 135.0 5.07 2.87 1.47 76 -0.1 Dave Johnson B.J. Hermsen 144.3 3.99 2.62 1.25 75 -0.2 Mike Lincoln Anthony Slama 41.3 8.50 6.32 1.09 82 -0.2 Calvin Jones Bryan Augenstein 64.0 6.05 3.23 1.13 76 -0.2 Trey Witte Anthony Swarzak 106.7 5.15 2.87 1.27 77 -0.2 Brooks McNiven Lester Oliveros 52.7 7.51 4.95 1.02 82 -0.2 Bob Gibson Michael Tonkin 68.0 7.15 4.24 1.06 83 -0.2 Ryan Seifert Scott Elarton 91.7 3.63 4.02 1.18 73 -0.3 Ed Riley Matt Maloney 77.0 4.91 2.22 1.40 73 -0.3 Jeff Ballard Tyler Robertson 65.3 7.03 4.82 1.10 80 -0.3 Chad Brown Luis Perdomo 75.7 5.47 4.87 0.95 80 -0.4 Tom McCarthy Casey Fien 56.3 6.55 3.36 1.44 78 -0.4 Tom Niedenfuer Tim Wood 54.0 5.50 4.67 1.00 77 -0.4 Jarod Juelsgaard Caleb Thielbar 48.0 6.00 4.13 1.31 75 -0.5 Mike Kinnunen P.J. Walters 116.3 6.04 3.56 1.47 72 -0.5 Greg Biercevicz Esmerling Vasquez 80.3 6.28 5.94 1.12 74 -0.5 Jarod Juelsgaard Pedro Hernandez 101.3 4.71 2.84 1.51 70 -0.7 Mike Ramsey Deolis Guerra 74.3 6.30 4.36 1.57 69 -0.9 Jeff Robinson Ryan Pressly 100.0 4.68 5.13 1.44 66 -1.2 Steve Buckholz Nick Blackburn 126.7 4.05 2.84 1.56 67 -1.2 Dave Johnson Shairon Martis 122.0 5.53 4.28 1.77 64 -1.5 David Walters Luke French 128.7 4.06 4.55 1.54 64 -1.7 Dan Smith *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Bears to bench Jay Cutler, start Jimmy Clausen

Wes Welker once pulled funny UGG prank on Tom Brady

Wil Myers heads to Padres in 11-player, 3-team trade

Bo Pelini calls Nebraska AD a ‘c–t’ and ‘p-ssy’

49ers release Ray McDonald

Take your pick: Colin Kaepernick or Derek Carr

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Reports: Michigan makes huge offer to Harbaugh

Heat lose a key player with McRoberts out for rest of season

Belichick: Ryan is 'buttering me up' with Hall of Fame praise

Marshall: Bears need to gel and do some kumbaya

Red Sox appear content with rotation despite lack of true ace

Iguodala gets technical for mocking Conley travel

Report: Celtics in serious trade talks involving Rondo

WATCH: Brandon Jennings makes mind-boggling play

WATCH: Drake intros Raptors on 'Drake Night'

Brian Billick owns Browns fan over Johnny Manziel criticism

WATCH: Did Flyers' Giroux wipe boogers on linesman’s back?

Royals sign Edinson Volquez to 2-year deal

12 candidates to replace Paul Chryst at Pitt

Brad Halsey claimed he was on cocaine for Bonds record HR

Wade Miley confident in health, diet after trade from D-Backs

When bowl results mean more for one school than another

Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson lead in 2014 athlete Google searches

Max Scherzer next domino to fall in free agent market

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.

Brian Billick owns Browns fan

C's in serious trade talks about Rondo

Pelini has profane words for Nebraska AD

When bowl results mean more for one school than another

Four can't-miss match-ups in NFL's Week 16

RG3 quits social media for season

Each NFL division’s MVP

Five NFLers who must step up in Week 16

Most impressive college hoops teams

Five reasons why FSU is going to win the CFB Playoff

Boxer admits to dive in Rourke bout

FCC heard about Brady's swearing?

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.