75 to 88 Wins in 2 Simple Steps

It's easier than you might think. Step 1: Do NothingThe Jays won 75 games last year, but Pythagoras suggests they should have won 83 (actually, 83.5 to be more precise). The only significant non-random factor that affects a team's deviation from its Pythagorean record is the strength of its late-inning relievers. While the Jays don't have an elite closer like Rivera, Papelbon or Nathan, the tandem of Jason Frasor and Scott Downs was great last year, and between those guys, Brandon League (who was actually really good in 2009 - check out his peripherals) and the huge stable of other relievers the Jays have, I'm confident they can cobble together a league-average back end. It only needs to be league average to be expected to perform according to Pythagoras, and it very well could be above average, in which case the Jays could be reasonably expected to out-perform their Pythagorean expectation.That might be beyond the talents of our faithful manager, though. We'll s...