Projecting the Playoffs, The Case for Kotchman

Projecting the Playoffs With just 20 games remaining in the regular season, the Sox' hunt for October is getting stronger by the day. At this juncture, with this team, a 4 ½ game lead in the Wild Card is a considerable advantage. Don't get cozy though, as one hot or cold stretch can completely change the complexion of this race. Still, it's looking pretty good for the Sox, as Baseball Prospectus gives the Red Sox a 92% chance of winning the Wild Card (though they are quoted as having just a 1.5 % chance of winning the AL East). But this is by no means a set race. Remember, baseball history is littered with cautionary tales of teams who were content to just sit on their lead. Lest we forget, and become drunk by our own success, there's the 1978 Red Sox, the 1986 Red Sox, the 2003 Red Sox, even the 2004 Yankees. Sometimes we all need to be humbled. (If you like horror stories, check out this article by Nate Silver on late season collapses. A word to the wise: li...