Stumping for Placido Polanco

We recently took a look at how Placido Polanco has been as good as Lee, Ramirez and Soriano in his career.  It’s quite surprising, but it is true.  Polanco is a free agent this winter.  He signed a 4-year deal for $18 million with the Tigers after the 2005 season.  His CHONE projection prior to this season was .303/.350/.406.  He’s hit .287/.334/.402.  That’s about league average, but Polanco is going to turn 34 years old in 8 days so his true skill level isn’t going to improve.  The CHONE projections offer a 6-year forecast and it’s fairly kind to Polanco.  In 2010 he’s projected to hit .300/.350/.406.  These numbers are for a neutral league and park so if the Cubs were to sign him we should expect those numbers to be quite a bit better.  Polanco’s wOBA has declined over the last few years, but joining the NL would improve it and his defense is well above average.  Despite his .323 wOBA he’s been worth 3.3 WAR in part due to his UZR of 11.4.  A simple projection considering only his wOBA and the last 4 years (weights of 1, .8, .6, .4) would have Polanco’s wOBA projected at around .334 next year playing at Comerica Park.  We can reasonably expect Polanco to be a league average hitter in the more difficult league.  I’m too lazy to adjust that were he to play 81 games at Wrigley, but it would be somewhere around .340-.350.  Add in his defense and there’s no reason to expect less than 2.8 to 3 WAR from Polanco in 2010.  He’s more than likely available for a 2-year deal for around $10 million and probably no more than 3 years and $15 million.  See more at Stumping for Placido Polanco