Found June 23, 2009 on MVN:
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Javier Vazquez continued to put up zeroes on Monday night, tossing 6.2 shutout innings to earn the decisions in the Atlanta Braves' 2-0 win over the Chicago Cubs. Vazquez scattered nine hits and struck out five while walking two, throwing 74 out of 116 pitches for strikes. With the win, he improves his record to 5-6 while lowering his ERA to 3.18.As has been the case throughout most of his career, though, Vazquez has been more effective than his Fantasy stats suggest. The right-hander has infamously outperformed his ERA, posting excellent peripherals and strikeout rates that failed to translate into elite ERA and win totals. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.88 is significantly lower than his 4.28 career ERA, in large part due to his excellent rates of 8.10 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 and 1.18 HR/9. It sounds cliché and is often repeated, but he has been done in often times by one bad inning, making one-pitch mistakes at inopportune times.When the Chicago White Sox dealt him to Atlanta this offseason, many analysts felt that Vazquez would flourish in the inferior league with the chance to finally put it all together. While he has continued to outperform his ERA, he has essentially lived up to the billing by posting a 10.14 K/9 rate (a league-best 121 Ks in 921. innings) and 2.66 FIP in his first 13 starts; only four pitchers in the majors have produced a better mark. Although he has fallen victim to the one bad inning a few times, he has really pitched well for the Braves, whose offensive attack has provided him with minimal run support; hence the poor record.Vazquez' batting average on balls in play and strand rate are in line with his career averages, so there aren't any fluky factors at play. As well, he's inducing more ground balls (42.7%) than he ever has, relying on a sinker that can be devastating to righties; hitters from the right side have hit just .213/.247/.299 with only 10 extra-base hits and 57 Ks in 164 at-bats off of him. His average fastball velocity is down a tick to 90.9 MPH, the lowest of his career, but his diverse four-pitch arsenal that also includes a low-80s slider, low-70s deuce and change-up has continued to enable him to miss bats.Atlanta, 33-36 and four games back in the National League East, has reaped the benefits of pulling the trigger and parting ways with top hitting prospect Tyler Flowers. Vazquez has provided great value, doing his part to keep the club in striking distance despite a terrible offense. He has produced 3.0 Wins Above Replacement--which rewards pitchers with low FIPs, one of the reasons his WAR totals have been so excellent--that translate in $13.3-M. Only six pitchers have surpassed the 3.0-win plateau, placing him with some good company:Zack Greinke: 4.7 WARTim Lincecum: 4.0 WARRoy Halladay: 4.0 WARJustin Verlander: 3.6 WARDan Haren: 3.0 WARVazquez: 3.0 WARThe casual fan may not recognize the fact, but the Braves have a legitimate frontline pitcher in Javier Vazquez, one bad inning or not.Trade: It's way too early to judge the offseason trade between the Braves and White Sox, of course, but here's an update how each of the five other players included are doing so far.BravesBoone Logan: Logan has put up a 3.34 ERA and 3.80 FIP in 28 relief appearances at Triple-A Gwinnett. The 24-year-old left-hander has had command issues (4.37 BB/9) but has missed bats to the tune of a 9.51 K/9, mixing in a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider and change-up.Vazquez: See above.ChicagoFlowers: There are some concerns about whether or not Flowers can remain behind the plate, but nobody doubts his stick. He has continued to rake at Double-A Birmingham, batting .278/.423/.515 with 10 home runs. The 23-year-old catcher, who ranks second in the Southern League with a .425 wOBA, is expected to be promoted to Triple-A Charlotte in the near future. One red flag with his performance, however, is his inability to make contact at times. He has struck out an alarming 63 times in 253 plate appearances; going down on strikes in nearly a third of the time simply won't cut it against more advanced pitching. Scouts love the bat, though, and he could be ready to make an impact in the Windy City in 2010 if he keeps hitting. He was undoubtedly the key return for the White Sox and has the chance to be a cost-efficient asset in the White and Black well into the next decade.Brent Lillibridge: Lillibridge, adored by scouts during his tenure in the Braves' farm system because of his make-up, broke camp expected to see significant innings in and adding versatility to the Chicago infield. The former Washington star struggled out of the gate, however, "hitting" .162/.260/.191 with a 20--yes, 20!--OPS+ in 26 games before being demoted to Charlotte. With Gordon Beckham adjusting to major league pitching and taking over at the keystone for good, it's in his best interest to get used to North Carolina. While he adds some nice organizational depth, he's unlikely to ever be more than a bench player.Jon Gilmore: Gilmore, the 33rd selection in the 2007 draft out of an Iowa high school, put up an .838 OPS in 258 at-bats for the Danville Braves in the Appalachian League in 2008 but struggled upon a promotion. South Atlantic League pitching has continued to stymie the 20-year-old third baseman, whose .242/.288/.321 line leaves a lot to be desired.Santos Rodriguez: Rodriguez put up an incredible 13.97 K/9 in Rookie Ball in '08, striking out 45 and posting a 1.65 FIP in 29.0 innings pitched. The 6-foot-5, 180-pound southpaw throws in the mid-90s but is still quite raw and has a lot of development left. He has yet to throw a pitch this spring due to an injury, but there is chance that he could develop into a decent major league relief option in the future.
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